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Nifty Weekly Outlook

Indian equity indices ended the week on a weak note, reacting to a combination of global uncertainties and sustained foreign fund outflows. The Nifty 50 slipped below the crucial 24,400 mark, closing at 24,363.30, down 232.85 points or 0.95%, while the Sensex declined 765.47 points or 0.95% to settle at 79,857.79. Concerns over elevated global interest rates, weak global market cues, and consistent profit-booking in heavyweight sectors continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the week. 

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has now formed six consecutive red candles on the weekly chart — a rare and notable pattern that indicates sustained selling pressure. The index is approaching a key support zone of 24,200–24,000, which also aligns with the 100-day EMA on the daily chart. Any reversal near this zone could present a strong buying opportunity. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 24,590, and a decisive close above this level may open the path towards 25,000 and 25,250 in the short term. 

Looking at indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.50, suggesting neutral momentum with no clear bullish or bearish bias. However, the Stochastic RSI is extremely oversold and is approaching a bullish crossover, often seen before short-term relief rallies. Steady volume activity further confirms that while there is no panic selling, supply pressure is still dominant. 

In summary, the broader trend remains cautiously bearish, but oversold signals from the indicators and the proximity to key support zones suggest a potential bounce may be on the cards. The 200 EMA on the daily chart, near 24,200, adds further strength to this support. On the derivatives front, highest Call OI is observed at the 24,500 and 24,700 strikes, likely to act as strong resistance zones. On the downside, 24,300 Put OI buildup suggests this level may hold as a near-term base. A breakout on either side will likely determine the next decisive move in the index."

Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook  

Indian banking stocks mirrored the broader market weakness and ended the week in the red, with Bank Nifty slipping below the psychological 55,000 mark. The index closed at 54,904.90, down 612.70 points or 1.10%. Continued selling pressure, especially in large-cap private banks, along with weak global cues, dampened investor sentiment. Despite prior outperformance, Bank Nifty is now showing early signs of exhaustion near its recent highs. 

From a technical standpoint, the index is taking support at the 20-EMA and is currently retesting the critical 54,900–55,000 zone. On the daily chart, the price is also holding above the 100 EMA, which stands near 54,935 — making it an immediate and crucial support level. A sustained move above this zone could trigger fresh buying momentum with upside potential towards 55,600–56,000. 

Indicator-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53.59, still within neutral territory but trending lower, indicating fading bullish momentum. The Stochastic RSI, currently at 10.96/23.97, is in an oversold zone and approaching a potential bullish crossover, often signaling the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, confirmation from price action and supportive volumes will be key. 

In summary, Bank Nifty is currently positioned at a crucial juncture near its immediate support zone of 54,800–54,900. If this support holds, a relief rally could unfold, supported by oversold technical indicators. Option data shows significant Call OI buildup at 55,500 and 56,000, which are likely to act as near-term resistance, while Put OI concentration at 54,000 suggests a strong downside cushion. The next directional move will depend on how the index reacts around these pivotal levels."

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