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Morning Market Outlook

* The market is expected to open positively, driven by a global market rally after U.S. indexes gained over 2%, marking one of the biggest single-day increases following the U.S. Presidential election results.

* Asian markets surged between 1-2%, and the Gift Nifty advanced by 0.5%. This week is crucial as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, with the Bank of England’s decision also under scrutiny.

* The U.S. Fed's commentary will be key for market sentiment, especially given ongoing concerns about the global trade war.

* Oil prices jumped 2%, crossing $71 per barrel, following China's announcement to take steps to revive consumption by boosting incomes, in response to U.S. tariffs. Positive sentiment is seen in metal, capital goods, defence, and oil & gas stocks

NIFTY (CMP : 22397) :

Nifty immediate support is at 22300 then 22222 zones while resistance at 22650 then 22800 zones. Now it has to hold above 22330 zones for an up move towards 22650 then 22800 zones while supports can be seen at 22300 then 22222 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48060) :

Bank Nifty support is at 47750 then 47500 zones while resistance at 48250 then 48500 zones. Now it has to hold above 48000 zones for a bounce towards 48250 then 48500 levels while a hold below the same could see some weakness towards 47750 then 47500 zones

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty March future closed at 22,444.10 with a premium of 47.05 point v/s 59.85 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.96 to 1.02 level.

* India VIX decreased by 3.01% to 13.28 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 23000 then 22500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22000 then 22400 strike. Call writing is seen at 22700 then 22500 strike while Put writing is seen at 22000 then 22400 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21800 to 22800 zones while an immediate range between 22200 to 22600 levels.

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22500 Call if it holds above 22330 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 48600 Call if it holds above 48000 zones.

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bull Call Spread (Buy 22500 CE and Sell 22650 CE) at net premium cost of 40-50 points. Bank Nifty Bull Call Spread (Buy 48500 CE and Sell 49000 CE) at net premium cost of 170-180 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 21800 PE and 22900 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 46000 PE and 49800 CE with strict double SL

Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

* US Markets rallied >2% on Friday, on account of value buying after the S&P 500 Index declined 10% in the last five week and the government avoided a shutdown.

* S&P 500 rose 2.1%, NASDAQ gained 2.6% while Dow closed +1.6% higher.

* European markets gained 1-2% after German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens party on an infrastructure and defense spending package.

* Dow Futures is currently trading -0.4% down.

* Asian markets are trading 1-2% higher after US and China pledged more steps to revive consumption.

* Global Cues: Positive

Indian Market Summary:

* Indian market ended lower on Thursday, following decline in Asian markets as concerns over US President Trump’s tariff policies outweighed the optimism from cooler than expected US inflation data.

* Broader market underperformed with Nifty Midcap100 down 0.9% and Smallcap100 down 1%.

* FIIs: -Rs793 crore DIIs: +Rs1724 crore.

* GIFT Nifty is trading marginally higher by 160 points (+0.7%).

* Domestic Cues: Positive

News and Impact :

* Oberoi Realty: Oberoi Realty informed about the soft launch of the mall property by the name ‘Sky City Mall’ situated at Borivali East, Mumbai. This is the company’s second mall property after Oberoi Mall in Goregaon East area of Mumbai. Impact: Positive

* KEC International: KEC has received new orders worth Rs 1,267 crore in the transmission & distribution and cable businesses. With these new orders, its YTD order intake stands at over Rs 23,300 crore, a growth of 35% YoY. Impact: Positive

VBL : CMP Rs488, TP 680, 39% Upside, Buy

* PepsiCo will increase its play in the packed food segment, catering to "multiple Indias" with different taste buds as it bets on innovations and premiumisation to continue its double-digit growth in the country

* Pepsico will expand its snacks business in India, as consumption is very low vis-a-vis other countries and with growing urbanisation and more money coming in the pockets with a growing economy

* VBL is poised to sustain its earnings growth, driven by increased penetration in new African markets, stable domestic growth, continued expansion & distribution (10% annual addition in outlets), and growing refrigeration in rural areas. We expect a CAGR of 12%/17% in revenue/PAT over CY24-26. View: Buy

Muthoot Finance : CMP Rs2191

* India's leading gold financier touched the milestone of Rs 1-trillion asset under management (AUM) on March 13, 2025.

* Muthoot reported strong gold loan growth in Q3, aided by gold tonnage growth and stronger customer additions.

* With a favorable demand outlook for gold loans driven by reduced competition from banks and limited availability of unsecured credit, the company is well-positioned to maintain its strong loan growth momentum.

View: Positive

What is this?

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event.

What are the rules?

• Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

• Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

• Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

• Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

• SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

• Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

• In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

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