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Below the Note on ‘GOLD’s Supersonic Speed – Dhanteras`24 to Dhanteras’25’ by Mr. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM, Ventura

Gold is explosive. The Initial ignition was set in March’25 at $3000 per ounce (Just 7 months ago). Its next detonation coming at $4300 an ounce. The explosive blasts were heard at $4000, $4100 and $4200; Gold seems to be on a world tour finding newer destinations.

Last Dhanteras (Oct 29, 2024) was Rs.78840 per ten gram or $2769 per ounce giving returns of 63% and 53% respectively with current prices at Rs.128200 / $4254..

Due to the delay of economic data (employment and inflation) as the US government is on shutdown mode, focus is on FED Chair Powell who signaled that rising labor market risks justify another rate cut. He acknowledged rising downside risks to the US labor market warranting rate cuts. The US dollar’s pullback reflects both improved global risk sentiment and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. A dovish shift has lowered real yields and strengthened the appeal of gold.

The US-China trade tensions (China announced tighter export restrictions on rare earth metals and magnets, critical resources of which it is the world’s largest supplier. Meanwhile US has announced an additional 100% tari? on Chinese imports, above the existing 30%) has further stoked risk aversion and bolstered demand for gold.

Steadily the ETF inflows and Central Bank buying is contributing to the rise in gold prices with mounting global economic uncertainty. U.S. is increasingly facing the challenge of their debt servicing with the national debt climbing to $37 trillion.

With these tailwinds, gold has had a record run of eight weekly gains. Gold is fueling investor confidence and a strong sense of FOMO as every pullback is being met with aggressive buying.

In India, gold rates are rising sharply with the upcoming festive season (Dhanteras Diwali) and domestic demand gearing up. The auspicious festive time during 29th Oct’24 Dhanteras witnessed sales volume close to 25-30 tons. Despite the lower quantity, the sales value in monetary terms saw an increase approx. 12-18% surge. Consumers have adapted to buying design rich ornaments and lightweight buying with smaller items like gold coins due to record high prices. During Q2 2025 jewelry demand dropped 17% year-on-year while other investment options and alternatives saw increased demand.

The outlook for Dhanteras 2025 is likely to continue with the bullish momentum in Gold. Price resistances seen at Rs.130000 – Rs.135000. Support Comes at Rs.121000 / $4000. Weakness could set in only on breaking Rs.120000 / $3980.

Starting the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the unchartered territory of $5000 per ounce / Rs.150000 per ten grams could be in 2026. Lets await the next blast. Happy Dhanteras & Shubh Deepavali.

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