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Nifty : 24868

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Equity benchmarks closed on a positive note for the Fifth straight session amid firm global cues and closed at 24,868 up 0.39%. Sectorally, IT, Pharma and FMCG outshone. While, Realty, oil & Gas and Consumer Durables were the laggards.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened on a positive note and traded in a narrow range of 77 points throughout the session. As a result, the daily price action formed a Doji candle with lower wick carrying higher-high-low where sector rotations and stock specific action witnessed with a daily average volume turnover of 78500 crs compared to the monthly average of 93300 crs indicating, lack of broader market participation.

* Index is likely to witness gap up opening tracking firm global cues and comment from US President Donald Trump on India’s Tariff negotiations. Key point to highlight is that, Nifty is trading in a contracting range of 25000-24400 since end of July 2025 while sustaining above its 200-day EMA. A decisive close above the upper band of the range (25000) will fuel further upward momentum that will open the door for the next leg of up move towards 25700 in coming month.

* Going forward, strong support is placed in the vicinity of 24400 being last two weeks identical low and lower band of the contracting range, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels and continuation of the primary uptrend. Current consolidation phase presents opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings, particularly those poised to benefit from next-generation GST reforms and upcoming festive season.

* Structurally, Auto Index witnessed a strong breakout from the weekly Inverse head & shoulder formation, supported by GST reforms. The breakout signals continuation of momentum with scope to retest its alltime high with a 10% upside potential in next couple of quarters.

* On the market breadth front the % of stocks above 50 days EMA has bounced from the oversold zone of 25-30 last week and further improved where it is currently placed at 40 offering incremental buying opportunity

* On the broader market front, both Nifty Midcap and small cap has been trading in the vicinity of 52-week EMA which has been held since April 2025 offering an incremental buying opportunity. • Key monitorable:

* a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

* b) US PPI / CPI MoM / Labour data.

* c) INDIA CPI

* d) U.S. Dollar index continues to trade below the past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil sustaining below 20-week EMA and closed the week on a negative note.

Nifty Bank : 54216

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Bank Nifty ended the day on a positive note and settled at 54,216 (+29 points). Nifty Pvt Bank index mirrored the benchmark, ending the day flat at 26368(+33 points).

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty opened the day on a positive note and traded within previous session range throughout the day, as a result the daily price action formed a inside bar with wick on lower end, indicating range bound activity.

* Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty continues to be in consolidation phase (53600-54500) over the last nine sessions, while forming a strong base above the 200-day EMA . Going forward, a decisive close above the upper band of the consolidation range will pave the way towards 55,400, which coincides with the 80% retracement of the recent decline (56156-53561) as well as the 50-day EMA. On the momentum front, Stochastic oscillator is in oversold territory on the weekly time-frame, with reading of 15, indicating that the corrective phase may not last long. Thus, investors should refrain from aggressive selling at current level.

* Structurally, since August 2022 there have been five instances where Bank nifty has consistently found support near the 52-week EMA post 10% of a correction and gradual recovery often begins. With the current 7% decline approaching toward the 52-week EMA (52900) and the weekly stochastic entering deeply oversold territory, thereby historical evidence suggest a high-probability inflection zone where downside risk is limited.

* PSU Bank Index underperformed the benchmark and closed on a negative note. Index is hovering in the vicinity of 20-day EMA; however, immediate support is placed near the rising trendline, aligning with the 100-day EMA (6800), indicating consolidation phase in near-term. Furthermore, the index continues to trade well above its previous multiple swing low support which coincides with the 200-day EMA placed near 6700, signals a broader uptrend is still intact.

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