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Nifty :26215

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Indian equities surged to fresh record highs on Thursday, buoyed by a sharp improvement in global risk appetite as expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut gained traction. Midcap ended flat with a positive bias while Smallcap slipped 0.50%. Sectorally, all indices closed on flat note while NBFCs and IT were the top gainer.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened on a flat note and clocked a new all-time high, however witnessed minor profit booking at the elevate levels. As a result, the daily price action formed a small bull candle with wicks on both ends, indicating volatility at higher levels.

* Key point to note is After roughly 14 months of consolidation (from September 30, 2024, to November 27, 2025), the index has finally breakout from this range to hit new high’s, marking a decisive catch-up with global peers and signalling a strengthening market structure. On the technical front, we believe index to decisively close above 26,300 which remains the nearby hurdle and eventually head toward the revised target of 26,800 in coming month. Hence, focus should be on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong Q2 earnings.

* Strong support for the Nifty is placed at 25,600 as it is 61.8% retracement of Sept-Oct rally (24588-26104) coincided with 50- day EMA.

Following observations makes us reiterate our positive stance:

* The current leg of up move is led by Bank Nifty and followed by Midcap index which has hit a fresh all-time high last week. Meanwhile, Small cap index is still trading below 10% from its alltime high. We expect, catch up activity to gradually pan out in small cap space in coming weeks as index has witnessed buying demand in the vicinity of 200 days EMA

* Strong Q2 earnings and improving macro indicators bodes well for durability of ongoing up move.

Key Monitorable for the next week:

* US and India Tarde Deal: Tracking nearing closure news of the US and India trade deal has kept Indian market upbeat. The favourable outcome could accelerate the positive momentum in the market and pave the way for return of FII’s in the Indian markets.

* GDP data: US & India

* Brent Crude Oil: Lower-high-low structure for four-consecutive weeks. Further cool off in Brent crude oil bodes well for domestic market

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Higher-high Higher low pattern within rising channel

* Levels: Buy on declines near 61.8% retracement of last 2 days upmove(26102-26495)

Nifty Bank : 59737

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty extended its gains and close at a record high to settle at 59,737 up 0.35%. Nifty Private bank index has mirrored the benchmark performance to close the day at fresh all-time high of 28,792.

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty started on a flat note and marked a fresh all-time high, however witnessed mild profit booking at the elevate levels. As a result, the daily price action formed a small bull candle with wicks on both ends, indicating volatility at higher levels.

* A key point to note is that index remains entrenched in a strong uptrend, consistently trading above the rising 20-day EMA and within the bounds of its ascending channel. The swift rebound from the 58,500 support has preserved the higher-high, higher-low structure, reaffirming bullish control. With the Nifty Private Bank Index scaling a fresh all-time high, leadership has clearly rotated back to heavyweight banking names, further strengthening the positive bias for the Bank Nifty. Thereby, we expect the index to extend its upward trajectory toward the revised target of 60,500.

* Hence, any dip from hereon should be viewed as a buying opportunity to accumulate quality banking names, especially those delivered strong Q2 earnings performance as immediate support is placed near 58,000, being 50% retracement of the ongoing advance (57,157–59,440) and expect the index to gradually resolve higher towards our projected target of 60,500 in the coming month.

* Historically, there have been 17 instances over the past two decades where Bank Nifty, following a decisive breakout above its previous two-month high, delivered double-digit returns within the subsequent four months. In the current setup, the index has once again confirmed a breakout above its prior two-month high and surpassed the previous all-time peak, reaffirming the prevailing bullish structure. This setup indicates a high-probability continuation pattern for sustained upside momentum in the coming months.

* The PSU Bank Index ended marginally lower today, underperforming the benchmark. Despite this, it has maintained a 12-week higher-high, higherlow structure on the back of strong Q2 earnings, rallying ~1,850 points (+27%). The sharp run-up has pushed stochastic readings into overbought territory on weekly and monthly charts, increasing the probability of a short-term consolidation. However, dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support placed near 7,900 coinciding with the 38.2% retracement of the 6,730–8,624 rally and the 50-day EMA..

* Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Higher-high Higher low pattern within rising channel.

* Levels Buy on declines near 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s upmove(59766-60067)

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