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Morning Market Outlook

* The market is expected to open on a positive note due to a rally in global markets following weakerthan-expected US retail sales in February, which has increased hopes that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates during its policy meeting tomorrow. Sentiment in the domestic market remains upbeat, driven by strong export growth, with India’s trade deficit falling to a four-year low.

* The US Dow Jones surged nearly 1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%, fuelled by bargain hunting and expectations of a positive Fed announcement.

* Asian markets rose up to 1.5% after China reported better-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data, alongside the US market's overnight rally.

* The GIFT Nifty is up by 150 points. Positive on metal, auto, PSU Banks, AC stocks, healthcare sectors.

NIFTY (CMP : 22508) :

Nifty immediate support is at 22330 then 22222 zones while resistance at 22650 then 22800 zones. Now it has to hold above 22400 zones for an up move towards 22650 then 22800 zones while supports can be seen at 22330 then 22222 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48354) :

Bank Nifty support is at 48250 then 48000 zones while resistance at 48500 then 48750 zones. Now it has to hold above 48250 zones for a bounce towards 48500 then 48750 levels while on the downside support is seen at 48250 then 48000 zones.

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty March future closed at 22,584.30 with a premium of 75.55 point v/s 47.05 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 1.02 to 1.05 level.

* India VIX increased by 1.02% to 13.42 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 23000 then 22800 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22000 then 22500 strike. Call writing is seen at 22800 then 22700 strike while Put writing is seen at 22500 then 22300 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 22000 to 23000 zones while an immediate range between 22300 to 22700 levels.

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22550 Call if it holds above 22400 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 48900 Call till it holds above 48250 zones.

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bull Call Spread (Buy 22600 CE and Sell 22750 CE) at net premium cost of 40-50 points. Bank Nifty Bull Call Spread (Buy 48700 CE and Sell 49200 CE) at net premium cost of 170-180 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 22000 PE and 22950 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 46800 PE and 49800 CE with strict double SL.

Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

• US Markets gained 0.5-1%, on account of modest retail sales and ahead of talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at ending the Ukraine war.

• European markets gained ~0.5%, with the focus on Germany's debt reform plans.

• Dow Futures is currently trading -0.2% down.

• Asian markets are trading 0.5-1% higher, buoyed by renewed optimism over China’s economy and US data that eased recession concerns.

* Global Cues: Positive

Indian Market Summary:

* Indian market gained on the back of positive global cues as the US markets rebounded on Friday and the Asian markets closed with gains on optimism over China’s plans to boost consumption.

* FIIs: -Rs4,488 crore DIIs: +Rs6000 crore. GIFT Nifty is trading marginally higher by 142 points (+0.6%).

* Domestic Cues: Positive

News and Impact :

* Bajaj Finserv:

Bajaj Finserv and promoter entities to acquire 26% from Allianz in Bajaj Allianz Life & Bajaj Allianz General Insurance. Transaction will give Bajaj group 100% ownership in Bajaj Allianz Life & Bajaj Allianz General Insurance. Bajaj group to pay Rs 13,870 cr for 26% stake in Bajaj Allianz General which is valued at Rs 53,346 cr. Bajaj Finserv to pay Rs 10,400 Cr for 26% stake in Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, Valued At Rs 40,000 cr. Valuation of Life and General insurance done at a discount of 19% and 14% compared to average street valuations. Impact: Neutral

* Tata Motors:

Company announced a price increase of up to 2 per cent across its commercial vehicle range. The new prices will come into effect from April 1. The company said the hike is necessary to offset rising input costs. Impact: Positive

VBL : CMP Rs508, TP 680, 34% Upside, Buy

* PepsiCo, Inc. announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire poppi, a fast-growing prebiotic soda brand for $1.95 bn.

* Company continues to evolve its portfolio through innovation and strategic acquisitions, to meet consumer preferences and continue to serve new generations of consumers

* Recently it also announced its plans to expand its snacks business in India, as consumption is very low vis-a-vis other countries and to tap huge market with growing urbanisation and more money coming in the pockets as the economy grows.

* VBL is poised to sustain its earnings growth, driven by increased penetration in new African markets, stable domestic growth, continued expansion & distribution (10% annual addition in outlets), and growing refrigeration in rural areas. We expect a CAGR of 12%/17% in revenue/PAT over CY24-26. View: Buy

Interglobe Aviation : CMP Rs4781

* UAE seeks to boost air links with India and expand to tier 2&3 cities, which will benefit Indigo.

* INDIGO is striving to improve its international presence through strategic partnerships and loyalty programs.

* Management has also taken several preemptive measures to increase its global brand awareness as it expects to capture a bigger share of growth in the international market over the coming years. View: Positive

What is this?

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event.

What are the rules?

* Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

* Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

* Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

* Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

* SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

* Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

* In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

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