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Nifty : 23996

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• Equity Benchmark extended its decline for third consecutive session down 0.8% at 23,996 as brent crude climbed near $95 amid escalating geopolitical tension. Market breadth turned negative with an (A/D) of 2:1. Broader markets comparatively underperformed the benchmark with Nifty Mid and Smallcap indices lost 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Baring FMCG and Auto, all other major indices closed in red with BFSI, IT and Pharma were the top laggards.

Technical Outlook :

• The Nifty 50 opened on a negative note and extended its decline on the breach of previous two-session identical low and 100-day EMA (24135). The daily price action resulted into bearish candle with upper shadow, indicating corrective bias.

• The recent up move in crude oil prices has resulted into extended correction in the Nifty consequently breaching 1- month rising trendline coincided with 50 days EMA, indicating a pause in current upward momentum. Going ahead, we expect extension of correction wherein strong support is placed in the zone of 23,600, being its former gap area and 38.2% retracement level of April-May 2026 rally that coincided with 3 months rising trend line.

• Structurally, over past three months index has been oscillating in 1500 points range (24600-23100). Meanwhile, at a current scenario index has seen forming base above its former gap-area created on 15th June 2026 that would make market structure healthy for the next leg of up move

• In the process, bouts of volatility to remain elevated as we enter the Q1FY27 earning season. Hence, focus should be on accumulating stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as key support is placed around 23600 levels as it is 61.8% retracement of June-July rally (23072-24530) coinciding with the gap area seen during 15th June

Key Monitorable :

• Brent Crude- Crude oil price has witnessed a sharp rebound from the oversold zone and its currently approaching towards the key resistance level placed in the range $98-100, algins with gap down area and 61.8% retracement level from its previous peak.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Index has breached below its 1-month rising trendline, indicating a pause in current upward momentum

• Levels – Sell around 61.8% retracement of yesterday range

Nifty Bank : 57127

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

Bank Nifty closed on negative note down 1.2% at 57127 levels on back of mixed global cues.

Technical Outlook :

• After negative opening index remained southward most part of the day and closed below 20-day EMA indicating pause in upward momentum. Consequently, the daily price action resulted into bear candle with lower high lower low indicating extended breather.

• Amidst geopolitical uncertainty over past 5 weeks , index has close below last weeks low, indicating healthy consolidation. Going ahead follow through strength to todays sell-off would result to extended correction towards 56500 support.

• The 200-day moving average coinciding with rising trendline joining lows of April 26 and June 2026 is place at 56500. Key point to highlight is that on daily charts Index has generated golden crossover where 50-day EMA has crossed above 200- day EMA indicating structural improvement which would gradually surpass 58700 & unlock the next leg of up move towards medium term for target of 60000 levels.

• PSU Bank Index is broadly consolidating in the range 8100- 8800.We expect index to consolidate in this range before next leg of upmove.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Price closed below its 20-day EMA after eight trading session, indicating pause in current upward momentum.

• Levels : Sell around 61.8% retracement of yesterday range

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