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JLR 1QFY25 wholesales at 97.75k units (est. 97k units)

Wholesales (excluding China JV) grew 5% YoY

* Wholesale volumes (ex-China JV) grew 5% YoY to 97.75k units. The company did not share a breakup of sales for Jaguar and LR.

* Wholesales for RR/RR Sport grew 22%/46% YoY, mainly led by an increase in the production capacity in Solihull, West Midlands.

* The overall mix of profitable RR/RR Sport/Defender models increased to 68% of wholesale volumes and 59% of retail volumes.

Retail volumes (including China JV) up 9% YoY

* Retail sales (incl. China JV) grew 9% YoY (-2.5% QoQ) to 111.2k units.

* Retails were higher in North America (+43% YoY), the UK (+14% YoY) and Europe (+4% YoY).

Others

* A sequential decline in wholesale volumes (-11% QoQ) and retail volumes (- 2.5% QoQ) reflects cyclical fluctuation in volumes between 4Q and 1Q.

* The waiting list for the new Range Rover Electric continues to grow, with over 39,000 clients now signed up.

* Valuation and view:

We expect JLR margins to remain stable over FY24-26, given: 1) rising cost pressure as it invests in demand generation, 2) normalizing mix, and 3) EV ramp-up, which is likely to be margin-dilutive. Even in India business, both CV and PV businesses are seeing moderation in demand. We have factored in flat margins for India business over our forecast period.

* While there is no doubt that TTMT delivered an extremely robust performance across its key segments in FY24, the above-mentioned headwinds could hurt its performance going ahead. The stock trades at 17x/15x FY25E/FY26E consolidated EPS and 6x/5x EV/EBITDA. Reiterate Neutral with our Jun’26E SOTP-based TP of INR960

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