Domestic consumption next catalyst for India equity markets, Trust MF CIO says
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The Indian equity markets will continue to grow, driven by domestic consumption, manufacturing and physical asset creation, especially in the construction, capital goods and real estate sectors, a top executive at Trust Mutual Fund said on Tuesday.
"I would say construction, capital goods including defense, some of the power ancillaries like power equipment suppliers and if we are betting on multi-year cycle, even real estate looks good," said Mihir Vora, chief investment officer at the firm.
Vora anticipates that overall returns from the broader equity markets will normalise to 10%-12% over the next few years, while sectors such as construction, capital goods and real estate outperform broader markets, supported by a pickup in private sector capital expenditure.
"In real estate, there are definite green shoots, private sector there are smaller green shoots, but with government keen to undertake more indigenous procurement, domestic sectors have still room to perform," he added.
The benchmark Nifty index has risen over 28% so far this year, following a more than 25% increase in 2023.
He emphasised that in order to achieve a higher growth rate, aiming even for 8%, there must be a concerted effort to generate more employment opportunities, particularly in sectors such as construction and infrastructure, to absorb the annual influx of new workforce.
Indian economy grew 8.4% in the October-December quarter, marking its fastest pace in one-and-a-half years, led by robust manufacturing and construction activity.
Meanwhile, he said the fund would prefer adding longer duration Indian government bonds into its portfolio, anticipating the benchmark bond yield to decline to 6.50% by the end of 2024, from its current rate of 7.05%.
"As an investor recommendation, we would advise exposure to both bonds and equities currently, with some bias towards equities towards the second half of the next financial year. If rural consumption picks up, preference for equities will rise," Vora added.
He expects government bonds to yield returns of around 8% this year, with stabilisation seen around 6.5%-7.0% in the years ahead.
