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Gold

Gold yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.15% at 1,21,409 as investors awaited key U.S. private payroll data this week to gauge the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut before year-end. The metal also found support from global geopolitical and economic developments. A new framework deal between the U.S. and China eased trade tensions, with Beijing agreeing to relax export curbs on rare earths while Washington postponed the imposition of new tariffs. However, investor sentiment remained cautious as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown entered its 33rd day, raising concerns over delayed economic data and broader economic disruption. On the domestic front, Indian gold dealers reported discounts of up to $12 per ounce for the first time in seven weeks, compared to last week’s $25 premium, as demand softened post-festival season. Meanwhile, other Asian markets showed improved activity, with China trading at a premium of up to $4 an ounce and Singapore and Hong Kong seeing premiums of up to $3 and $1.6, respectively. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025 to 1,313 tonnes—the highest quarterly total on record—driven by a 17% jump in bar and coin demand and a 134% surge in ETF inflows, offsetting weaker jewelry demand. Technically, gold is under fresh buying as open interest rose 2.97% to 13,406 with prices up 177. Support is at 1,21,005 and 1,20,595, while resistance is at 1,21,985 and 1,22,555. A move above these levels could trigger further bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 120595-122555.

* Gold prices rose as investors awaited U.S. private payroll data to gauge the chances of another Fed rate cut.

* China’s tax change on Gold purchases dents sentiment in the world’s largest Bullion market.

* UBS sees upside risks for gold toward $4,700/oz if political or financial market volatility rises again

Silver

Silver yesterday settled lower by 0.36% at 1,47,758 as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, but Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another cut in December is not assured, prompting traders to turn attention to upcoming U.S. economic data such as ADP jobs and ISM PMI reports for further direction. Sentiment was also tempered by improved trade relations, as China agreed to suspend export curbs on rare earths and investigations into U.S. semiconductor firms, while Washington paused additional tariffs and scrapped a planned 100% levy on Chinese exports. Meanwhile, liquidity pressures in London’s silver market eased after large inflows from the U.S. and China. London vaults held 24,581 tonnes of silver worth $36.5 billion as of end-September, according to the LBMA. Silver ETP investments saw net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, lifting global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces — just 7% below their record 2021 levels. Retail investment demand has grown 7% year-on-year in India, reflecting firm price expectations. The Silver Institute projected the global deficit to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year, with stable industrial demand and higher bar and coin purchases offsetting weaker jewellery and silverware consumption. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.5% to 20,322 while prices fell 529. Support is seen at 1,46,685 and 1,45,605, while resistance lies at 1,49,295 and 1,50,825.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 145605-150825.

* Silver dropped as investors weighed the outlook for Fed policy while assessing the impact of easing US-China trade tensions.

* The Fed delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, though Chair Powell stressed that another move in December is not guaranteed.

* Markets now turn to key US data releases, including ADP jobs and ISM PMI reports, for further guidance.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.46% at 5,447 as OPEC+ decided to pause production hikes for the first quarter of 2026, providing some support to prices. The group, comprising OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and then maintain current levels through Q1 2026 to ensure a supply-demand balance. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais reaffirmed that the outlook for oil demand remains positive, with no major market disruptions expected. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast for H1 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.5, citing the production pause and recent sanctions on Russian oil assets. On the U.S. front, the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp fall in crude inventories by 6.858 million barrels for the week ending October 24, well above expectations of a 0.4-million draw. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell by 5.941 million and 3.362 million barrels, respectively, reflecting firm demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output rose to a record 13.8 million bpd in August. OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, projecting a smaller supply deficit as output gradually increases. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest dropping 4.76% to 14,160 while prices gained 25. Crude oil is finding support at 5,398, below which it may test 5,350, while resistance is seen at 5,482, and a breakout above could push prices towards 5,518.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5350-5518.

* Crude oil prices edged slightly higher as OPEC+ agreed to halt production hikes for the first quarter of 2026. 

* OPEC+ agrees to small December oil output hike, and Q1 pause

* OPEC’s Al Ghais says oil demand outlook remains positive, no market surprises expected

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled higher by 3.7% at 378.4, supported by stronger heating demand and record-high LNG exports to Europe and Asia. Colder early-winter weather forecasts have raised expectations for increased consumption, while LNG export flows averaged 16.6 billion cubic feet per day in October — the highest ever. European demand remained firm as buyers continued relying on U.S. gas amid reduced Russian supplies and declining inventories at key hubs. The U.S. also strengthened energy ties with Asian partners through new trade commitments. On the supply side, U.S. natural gas production stayed strong at around 107 bcfd, keeping the market well supplied. Storage levels in the Lower 48 states rose by 74 bcf in the week ending October 27, slightly above expectations of a 71 bcf build, bringing total inventories to 3,853 bcf — 0.8% higher year-on-year and 4.6% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record output and demand through 2026, with dry gas production expected to rise to 107.4 bcfd by 2026 and consumption to 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also projected to climb to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying with open interest up 7.68% to 19,507 as prices gained 13.5. Natural gas is getting support at 367.2, below which it may test 356, while resistance is seen at 385.8, and a move above could take prices towards 393.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 356-393.2.

* Natural gas climbed supported by stronger heating demand and robust LNG exports to Europe and Asia.

* Colder weather forecasts for early winter boosted expectations for increased gas consumption, while LNG export flows averaged 16.6 bcfd in October.

* US output remained high at around 107 bcfd, keeping the market well supplied.

Copper

Copper prices fell marginally by 0.16% to 1009.2 as weak demand signals and a stronger US dollar temporarily outweighed supply concerns. China’s official manufacturing PMI showed a seventh straight month of contraction, underscoring slowing industrial demand amid weaker consumer spending and growing global trade protectionism. However, copper prices remained higher on a monthly basis, supported by ongoing supply disruptions and reduced output from major producers like Glencore, Anglo American, and Freeport-McMoRan. The fatal mudslide at Freeport’s Indonesian mine, accounting for over 3% of global supply, forced a temporary suspension of operations, further tightening the market. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a surplus of about 178,000 tonnes in 2025, followed by a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026, with mine production expected to grow by 1.4% next year and 2.3% in 2026. Refined copper usage is forecast to rise 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of copper concentrate fell 6.2% in September due to reduced exports from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine after the expiry of its export license. The market witnessed fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 3.57% to 9,807 while prices dropped by 1.65. Copper now finds support at 1006.9, and a break below could test 1004.4 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1012.7, and a move above this level may push prices toward 1016.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1004.4-1016.

* Copper slipped amid weak demand signals and a stronger dollar temporarily.

* China’s official PMI pointed to a 7th consecutive contraction in the factory activity.

* Major producers such as Glencore and Anglo American reported lower output in the first nine months of the year.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 1.28% to 304.45 as easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., along with optimism for stronger global growth and demand, supported buying interest. Market sentiment improved after reports that both nations reached a framework deal to pause additional U.S. tariffs and Chinese export restrictions. On the supply front, zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 5.27% from last Friday, while LME zinc stocks fell sharply to just 35,200 tons — down about 85% from the start of the year — nearing two-year lows. The steep cash-to-three-month premium of $170 indicated an urgent short-term shortage in overseas markets. In contrast, China’s social zinc ingot stocks rose to around 162,000 tons by late October, up from nearly 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, reflecting diverging market conditions — tight supplies outside China versus growing inventories domestically. Global refined zinc production is expected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025, while the ILZSG reported a market surplus of 47,900 tons in August and a cumulative surplus of 154,000 tons in the first eight months of 2025. Fresh buying was observed as open interest rose 2.07% to 2,662 while prices gained 3.85. Zinc now finds support at 302.2, and a break below could test 299.9 levels. Resistance is seen at 305.7, and a move above this may lift prices toward 306.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 299.9-306.9.

* Zinc gains amid as easing trade tensions between the China and the U.S. and hopes for stronger growth and demand spurred buying.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.27% from last Friday

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.83% to 274.05, supported by near-term supply tightness and expectations of robust long-term demand. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 3.89% from last Friday, indicating firm consumption trends. Supply-side issues added to bullish sentiment, as Century Aluminium curtailed production by two-thirds at its Iceland smelter due to an electrical failure, while Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia amid deteriorating bauxite quality. China’s aluminium output cap of 45 million tons and reduced annual growth targets of 1.5% for 2025–26 further signaled tightening supply conditions. Global primary aluminium output rose modestly by 0.9% year-on-year to 6.08 million tonnes in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). However, Japanese port inventories increased slightly to 341,300 tonnes, suggesting regional supply improvements. China’s aluminium imports climbed 35.4% year-on-year in September to 360,000 tonnes, while exports fell slightly to 521,000 tonnes, reflecting stronger domestic demand. Despite these positives, upside momentum was capped by a firm U.S. dollar and Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast, projecting LME aluminium prices to ease to $2,350 per tonne in late 2026 amid slowing demand and cost deflation. The market witnessed short covering as open interest declined 0.72% to 3,871 while prices gained 2.25. Aluminium now finds support at 272.5, and a break below could test 271. Resistance is seen at 275.1, and a move above may push prices toward 276.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 271-276.2.

* Aluminium gains amid a backdrop of tight supply in the near term and bullish longer term demand.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.89% from last Friday.

* Global primary aluminium output in September rose 0.9% year on year to 6.08 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 1.52% at 14,674, pressured by higher acreage amid favorable monsoon conditions during the current sowing season. Preliminary data suggests turmeric area for 2024–25 stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares, with estimates of a 15–20% further rise as other crops offer lower profitability. However, downside remains limited as excessive rains have adversely impacted yields in key growing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Continuous rainfall in Erode has triggered disease outbreaks, while high humidity is hampering crop preservation. In Nanded, around 15% of turmeric acreage has been damaged due to heavy rains, while Warangal farmers’ stocks are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals reported in recent days. At Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are attracting strong buyer interest, with premium prices for new stock due to its superior quality. Market activity remains steady, with 1,000–1,200 bags traded daily, and nearly 50–55% of the new crop already sold. Meanwhile, Himachal Pradesh’s government procurement drive is promoting natural farming and ensuring farmer participation. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose by 3.31% during Apr–Aug 2025 to 80,156.56 tonnes, with August exports up 7.27% year-on-year. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest fell by 0.13% to 11,705, while prices declined 226. Turmeric now finds support at 14,446 and 14,220, while resistance is seen at 14,996 and 15,320. A move above 15,320 could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14220-15320.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14611.35 Rupees dropped by -0.37 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled higher by 0.82% at 20,340 amid short covering and lower arrivals following the Diwali holidays, which kept market activity subdued. Support also came after the GST Council reduced the GST rate on jeera to 5%, likely boosting domestic FMCG demand and export competitiveness. However, upside potential remains limited as export demand has weakened after the retail season, with foreign buyers remaining largely inactive. Supplies remain comfortable, and existing stocks are sufficient to meet current demand. Farmers reportedly hold about 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the 2024–25 season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, supported by favorable weather and steady sowing. Gujarat’s output is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, cumin production in China has been revised down to 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce between 9,000–12,000 tonnes each. Jeera exports during Apr–Aug 2025 dropped 17.02% to 85,977.39 tonnes compared to 103,614.50 tonnes last year, reflecting sluggish overseas demand. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest fell by 5.05% to 2,766 while prices rose 165. Jeera now has support at 20,120 and 19,910, while resistance is seen at 20,570 and 20,810, above which fresh upside momentum could emerge.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19910-20810.

* Jeera ended with gains on level buying amid low arrivals.

* Support seen after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* Jeera exports during Apr - Aug 2025, dropped by 17.02 percent at 85977.39 tonnes as compared to Apr - Aug 2024.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20054.2 Rupees dropped by -0.59 percent.

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