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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.52% to settle at 154,784 amid growing concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further as inflationary pressures remain elevated. Market sentiment was also influenced by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, which pushed crude oil prices higher and reinforced worries about inflation. Comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack highlighted that the U.S. labor market remains near full employment, while persistent inflation may warrant tighter monetary policy. Supporting this view, the U.S. economy recorded a third consecutive month of robust job growth in May, providing the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility to maintain a hawkish stance. On the demand side, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to a nineteenth consecutive month, increasing reserves to 74.96 million fine troy ounces in May. However, physical demand remained subdued across major Asian markets. In India, buyers largely stayed on the sidelines due to volatile international prices, while physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly net outflow in a year as investors booked profits following the recent rally. In China, gold premiums softened slightly, reflecting moderate consumer demand. According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America, although year-to-date flows remain firmly positive. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults rose 0.21% month-on-month to 9,392 tonnes, highlighting continued institutional interest in the precious metal. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 2.45% to 8,591 contracts alongside the price fall. Gold is currently supported at 153,230, with a break below this level potentially triggering further weakness toward 151,670. On the upside, resistance is seen at 155,830, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for a rally toward 156,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151670-156870.

*  Gold fell as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report raised bets for interest rate hikes.

*  China's central bank increased its gold reserves for a 19th month in May

*  Gold demand was subdued in India as buyers stayed on the sidelines while premiums in China eased slightly.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.86% to settle at 246,389 as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year. The U.S. labor market remained resilient, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 in May following an upwardly revised gain of 179,000 in April. As a result, market expectations for a December Fed rate hike strengthened significantly, with the probability rising above 70%, compared with 45% a week earlier. Higher interest rate expectations weighed on precious metals, while escalating tensions between Israel and Iran added to market uncertainty. Continued disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz supported crude oil prices, raising concerns over persistent inflation. Fundamentally, silver demand trends remained mixed across major consuming regions. India tightened restrictions on silver imports by placing grain, powder, bars, and most semi-manufactured silver products under the restricted category, requiring prior authorization from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade. The move aims to reduce imports and ease pressure on the rupee after India spent a record $12 billion on silver imports during the last fiscal year. In contrast, China continued to show exceptionally strong demand, with March silver imports reaching a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the historical seasonal average. Demand was driven by retail investment purchases and stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of tax policy changes. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% in May to 27,611 tonnes, indicating steady institutional participation. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 4.54% to 11,780 contracts while prices moved lower. Silver has immediate support at 239,970, with a break below this level potentially extending losses toward 233,550. On the upside, resistance is seen at 251,905, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 257,420.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 233550-257420.

* Silver dropped after strong U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

* Israel and Iran traded strikes, pushing oil prices higher and fuelling inflation concerns.

* CFTC: For the week ended June 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures rose by 188 contracts to 10,433 contracts.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices gained 1.08% to settle at 8,707 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East renewed concerns over global energy supplies. Market sentiment turned bullish after Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon despite an existing truce, reducing optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation of the broader regional conflict. The latest developments also clouded prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement and delayed expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude and natural gas shipments. Iran responded to the attacks by launching missiles toward Israel, further heightening regional uncertainty. Although U.S. President Donald Trump urged restraint and signaled efforts to prevent further retaliation, supply concerns remained dominant and continued to support oil prices. Fundamental data also provided support to the market. U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.97 million barrels during the week ended May 29, marking the largest decline since February and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 4 million barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also declined, while net U.S. crude imports fell during the week. However, gains were partially capped by rising fuel inventories, with gasoline stocks increasing by 3.36 million barrels and distillate inventories rising by 1.50 million barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced its fourth production increase in four months, although analysts believe the impact will be limited as several member nations continue to face production constraints due to geopolitical disruptions and infrastructure challenges. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million previously, citing the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 7.73% to 9,755 contracts while prices advanced. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,532, with further support seen at 8,356. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9,007, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 9,306.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8356-9306.

* Crude oil gains after Israel launched renewed strikes on Lebanon despite a truce between the two countries.

* OPEC+ agrees to output hike, but impact limited by supply constraints

* Israel strikes on Beirut raise concerns over US-Iran peace deal and Hormuz reopening

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 2.53% to settle at 300.8 as a modest increase in production and ongoing maintenance at major LNG export facilities weighed on market sentiment. Despite lower output in recent weeks helping to narrow the storage surplus, overall supply conditions remain comfortable, with inventories still around 5% above the five-year seasonal average. Additional pressure came from weaker LNG export demand, as net gas flows to major U.S. export terminals averaged 16.4 billion cubic feet per day in June, down from 17.1 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance activities at several facilities. However, downside losses were partially limited by forecasts for above-normal temperatures through June 20, which are expected to support cooling-related natural gas demand. Fundamental data presented a mixed outlook for the market. U.S. utilities injected 95 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended May 29, taking total inventories to 2.578 trillion cubic feet. The build was lower than market expectations of 101 Bcf, indicating slightly stronger demand or lower supply than anticipated. Current storage levels are 3 Bcf below the same period last year but remain 138 Bcf above the five-year average, highlighting adequate supply availability. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that dry natural gas production will continue rising to record levels, increasing from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption is expected to ease slightly in 2026 before rebounding in 2027, reflecting a balanced long-term demand outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 17.1% to 17,732 contracts while prices moved lower. Natural gas has immediate support at 296.5, with a break below this level potentially extending losses toward 292.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at 305.2, and a sustained move above this level could open the way for further gains toward 309.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 292.3-309.7.

* Natural gas fell on a small increase in output and lingering LNG export plant maintenance

* Output rises slightly, LNG export plant maintenance continues, pressuring prices

* Mild spring weather allowed higher gas storage, surplus narrows as output dips

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.04% to settle at 1,335.6 as traders booked profits after a recent rally, although the broader market remained supported by tightening exchange inventories and expectations surrounding potential U.S. import tariffs. Stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses declined to 376,775 tonnes, down 6% over the past month, while a high level of cancelled warrants indicates that additional metal is likely to leave the exchange system. Market participants continue to move copper into the United States ahead of a possible decision on import levies expected by the end of June, supporting underlying demand and keeping inventories under pressure. Fundamentally, supply concerns and improving demand sentiment continued to provide support. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4% to the lowest level since December, while China's central bank encouraged banks to increase lending, reinforcing expectations for stronger industrial activity. Chinese unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high despite record domestic refined copper production, highlighting resilient demand. Increased investment in power grid infrastructure, with spending rising 37% during the first quarter, has been a major driver of copper consumption in China. On the supply side, concerns remain over slower mine output growth in Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, while production challenges at major operations such as Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula continue to limit supply expansion. Market outlook remains constructive despite the International Copper Study Group projecting a refined copper surplus in 2026. Several major banks have raised their copper price forecasts, citing tighter mine supply, stronger U.S. imports, and persistent inventory declines. Goldman Sachs increased its end-2026 forecast to $13,735 per tonne, while Citi raised its near-term target to $14,500 per tonne. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 5.58% to 15,954 contracts while prices eased slightly. Copper has immediate support at 1,321.1, with further downside support at 1,306.7. Resistance is seen at 1,347.3, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 1,359.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1306.7-1359.1.

* Copper pared gains on profit booking after prices seen supported as stocks in LME approved warehouses fell.

* China's refined copper production in April rose 1.60% year-on-year to 1.27 million metric tons

* CFTC: For the week to June 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX copper futures rose by 5,156 contracts to 77,131 contracts.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.05% to settle at 365.2, supported by tightening global supply conditions following production disruptions at major smelting operations. However, gains remained limited as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted the dollar and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by year-end. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, significantly above market expectations, while private sector employment also exceeded forecasts, reducing hopes for near-term monetary easing and creating headwinds for base metals. On the supply side, market sentiment remained supported after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. Additional supply concerns emerged after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operating rates at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan following an explosion. These disruptions come at a time when the International Lead and Zinc Study Group already expects a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tonnes this year. LME zinc inventories remain relatively low at 111,250 tonnes, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting the tight supply environment. However, the cash zinc contract continues to trade at a discount to the three-month contract, indicating that immediate physical shortages are not yet evident. Meanwhile, some factors limited further price gains. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose modestly, while Swedish miner Boliden confirmed that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting also plans to increase refined zinc output by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026-27 fiscal year. Additionally, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tonnes in March from 58,700 tonnes in February, reflecting improving market balance conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 4.42% to 2,511 contracts while prices moved slightly higher. Zinc has immediate support at 362.7, with further downside support at 360.2. Resistance is seen at 367.0, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 368.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 360.2-368.8.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* However upside seen limited as US dollar rose after stronger-than-expected US jobs data.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange up 0.9% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.23% to settle at 385.3, supported by ongoing supply concerns linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has increased uncertainty surrounding aluminium supplies from the Middle East, while higher energy costs, a key component of aluminium production expenses, have provided additional support to prices. Supply-side concerns intensified as major Gulf producers faced operational challenges, with Emirates Global Aluminium's flagship smelter expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity and Bahrain's ALBA continuing to operate below normal levels. Stricter controls on bauxite exports from Guinea further added to concerns over raw material availability. Market sentiment also received support from stronger economic indicators in China. Industrial profits expanded at the fastest pace since November 2023, highlighting resilience in the manufacturing sector. China's imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased by 6.9% year-on-year in March, while first-quarter imports rose 1.6%, reflecting steady demand. At the same time, domestic aluminium production remained robust, with April output rising 3.1% from a year earlier to 3.87 million metric tons. Chinese aluminium exports also strengthened significantly, jumping 15% year-on-year in April as tighter global supplies improved export opportunities. Meanwhile, inventories at major Japanese ports declined by 10.8% month-on-month, indicating healthy consumption trends in the region. On the global supply front, the International Aluminium Institute reported that primary aluminium production in the Gulf region fell 35% year-on-year in April due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, while overall global aluminium output declined by 2.1%. These developments helped offset concerns over rising Chinese production and slightly higher Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing by 4.47% to 3,788 contracts while prices advanced. Aluminium has immediate support at 382.8, with further support at 380.1. Resistance is seen at 387.5, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 389.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 380.1-389.5.

* Aluminium gains amid restricted supplies from the Middle East due to the U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

* EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity.

* Guinea's stricter controls on bauxite exports have added to concerns over tighter raw material supplies.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices remained largely steady, settling marginally higher by 0.01% at 15,458 as lower-than-normal arrivals in key producing markets continued to support sentiment. Major mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana have reported restricted arrivals despite the peak marketing season, creating near-term supply tightness. Quality concerns related to moisture damage and rhizome rot have further reduced the availability of premium export-grade turmeric, particularly the highly sought-after "Double Polished" varieties. In major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists have continued to hold back quality stocks in anticipation of higher prices, while premium Salem Fali varieties are commanding substantial premiums in the physical market. However, gains remained limited due to increasing arrivals of late-harvested turmeric and profit-booking by traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels earlier in the season. Farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra have accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, resulting in temporary supply pressure across local mandis. Additional pressure emerged from the arrival of high-moisture produce, which has been offered at discounted rates. Export sentiment also remained mixed, as logistical challenges linked to ongoing Middle East tensions prompted some overseas buyers to postpone purchases. Fundamentally, the overall supply outlook remains supportive. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year's level of over 20 lakh bags. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers remains firm, while active procurement from Bangladesh has supported market sentiment. The Agriculture Ministry's downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.14 million tonnes has further strengthened long-term bullish expectations. Concerns regarding a potentially below-normal monsoon and rising temperatures affecting stored stocks have also contributed to underlying support. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 4.54% to 17,330 contracts while prices edged higher. Turmeric has immediate support at 15,246, with further support at 15,036. Resistance is seen at 15,590, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 15,724.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15036-15724.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* However, farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15503.35 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices gained 0.58% to settle at 19,120, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality seeds and renewed buying interest from export markets. Demand from European and North American buyers has improved, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while domestic industrial processors have gradually increased inventory purchases at current price levels. Supply concerns were also amplified by recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan, which damaged standing crops during the harvest stage and raised concerns about reduced availability of high-grade produce. In addition, unseasonal rainfall across northwestern India delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily restricting market supplies and supporting prices. Despite these supportive factors, gains remained limited due to increasing arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions. Favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting operations more quickly than anticipated, resulting in a sharp rise in market arrivals. Farmers have also been actively selling stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, adding continuous selling pressure. Daily arrivals at the Unjha market have stabilized around 28,500 bags, creating abundant near-term supplies and partially offsetting concerns about lower production. Fundamentally, the long-term outlook remains supportive. Market estimates indicate national cumin production may decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season compared with approximately 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is expected at 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and disease outbreaks in key producing regions have contributed to the production decline. Internationally, adverse weather conditions are expected to reduce production in China, while output in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan is also projected to remain relatively limited. Export data showed mixed trends, with March shipments declining year-on-year but improving on a monthly basis, indicating a gradual recovery in export demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 11.04% to 7,182 contracts while prices moved higher. Jeera has immediate support at 19,000, with further support at 18,860. Resistance is seen at 19,220, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 19,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18860-19300.

* Jeera gains as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* European and North American buyers have re-entered the market, specifically targeting residue-compliant and high-specification lots.

* Large industrial processors have started increasing their "hand-to-mouth" inventory levels at these lower price points.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19527.65 Rupees dropped by -0.22 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views