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Gold

Gold prices slipped by 0.53% to settle at 123,451 as investors balanced easing geopolitical concerns with shifting expectations on U.S. monetary policy. The metal initially faced selling pressure but recovered part of its losses after weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI data reinforced hopes of further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Headline inflation rose to 3% in September, below the forecast of 3.1%, while core inflation eased slightly, signaling moderating price pressures. The anticipation of two more rate cuts by year-end lent support to bullion, enhancing its appeal as a non-yielding asset. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish outlook, projecting gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing strong investor demand for diversification and structural buying trends that may sustain the long-term rally. Physical demand in India remained subdued as buyers awaited potential price corrections, though festive demand around Dhanteras and Diwali offered some cushion. Indian dealers maintained a premium of $25 per ounce, while China and Singapore saw renewed buying interest. Swiss gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, with shipments to India also rising, underscoring robust Asian demand even as U.S. imports dropped sharply. Technically, gold is under long liquidation as open interest fell 4.21% to 12,343. Support is seen at 121,820, below which prices may test 120,190, while resistance is at 124,660; a break above could push prices towards 125,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 120190-125870.

* Gold dropped as investors weighed trade developments and geopolitical tensions that lifted the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

* While prices pared most of its losses after weaker-than-expected US CPI data boosted expectations of lower interest rates.

* Expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver two more rate cuts by year-end supported bullion.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.7% to settle at 147,470, as traders booked profits after a strong rally, amid concerns that the metal had become overvalued. The recent pullback came despite weaker U.S. CPI data reinforcing expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Headline inflation rose to 3% in September, slightly below the forecast of 3.1%, while core inflation eased marginally, supporting hopes for monetary easing. Earlier gains in silver were driven by safe-haven inflows, optimism surrounding industrial demand from electric vehicles, data centers, and solar sectors, and tightening inventories across major exchanges in London and Shanghai. The market also tracked trade-related developments ahead of the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC summit. Meanwhile, large shipments of silver from the U.S. and China to London helped ease a recent liquidity squeeze, stabilizing premiums in the spot market. Global silver ETP holdings rose sharply to 1.13 billion ounces by mid-2025, nearing record highs, reflecting sustained investor appetite. However, the Silver Institute expects the global deficit to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year due to a mild demand dip and supply increase, with coin and bar demand forecast to rise 7% after a sharp drop in 2024. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.56% to 20,311. Silver finds support at 145,550, below which it may test 143,630, while resistance is at 148,920, and a breakout could lift prices towards 150,370.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 143630-150370.

* Silver dropped as profit-taking swept through the market amid concerns that the metal may have entered overvalued territory.

* Traders increased bets on two Fed rate cuts this year following weaker-than-expected US CPI data.

* The prior rally was fueled by safe-haven demand, optimism over industrial use in EVs, data centers, and solar energy.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices eased by 0.18% to settle at 5,427, as traders booked profits following a sharp rally driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and fresh U.S. sanctions on major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions, aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues amid the Ukraine conflict, disrupted global supply chains as Chinese state oil firms reportedly halted Russian crude purchases and Indian refiners planned import cuts. The European Union also intensified sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, while ongoing Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines further fueled supply uncertainty. On the data front, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 following OPEC+’s decision to increase production but trimmed its demand outlook due to a weaker economic environment. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories rising by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 267,000 and 4.5 million barrels, respectively. Refinery utilization slipped to 85.7%, reflecting lower crude runs. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its oil demand growth estimates, noting a smaller expected deficit in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to unwind output cuts, raising near-term surplus concerns. Technically, the crude oil market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.54% to 14,095. Immediate support lies at 5,380, below which prices may test 5,332, while resistance is seen at 5,493, and a break above could push prices toward 5,558.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5332-5558.

* Crude oil pared gains on profit booking after prices rallied as fresh US sanctions on major Russian producers.

* Washington blacklisted state-run oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

* EU countries have approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia that includes a ban on imports of Russian LNG.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices dropped sharply by 4.89% to settle at 282.2, pressured by rising production levels and ample storage inventories. The market faced profit-booking as output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, slightly higher in recent days despite being below the record 108 bcfd seen in August. Record production earlier this year allowed producers to inject larger volumes into storage, leaving inventories 5% above the seasonal average and 0.9% higher than last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 87 billion cubic feet into storage for the week ended October 17, surpassing expectations of 83 bcf and the historical average, reflecting continued oversupply conditions. Weather forecasts indicated mostly near-normal temperatures through early November, although seasonal cooling is expected to lift heating demand. LSEG projected total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 101.7 bcfd this week to 108.5 bcfd over the next two weeks, suggesting modest demand support. The EIA’s latest outlook expects both production and consumption to reach record highs in 2025, with dry gas output seen at 107.1 bcfd and demand at 91.6 bcfd, alongside strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) export growth. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 23.99% to 9,462. Support is placed at 277.4, and a break below could test 272.7, while resistance is seen at 290.4, with further gains likely toward 298.7 on recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.7-298.7.

* Natural gas eased on an output increase in recent days and ample amounts of fuel in storage.

* Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual.

* There is currently about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.46% to settle at 994.6, supported by optimism over U.S.–China relations and expectations of fresh policy support from Beijing. Prices gained after the White House confirmed an upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while China’s Fourth Plenum reaffirmed its focus on boosting domestic consumption and technological innovation. Supply concerns also underpinned the market, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories falling by 4.9% week-on-week. Meanwhile, mine disruptions in Indonesia and Chile continued to tighten supply. Indonesia may soon allow Amman Mineral International to resume copper concentrate exports, following earlier restrictions. However, Freeport-McMoRan’s export halt from Indonesia and production disruptions at the Grasberg mine have constrained global shipments. China’s copper output in September dropped 2.7% month-on-month, while imports of copper concentrate declined 6.2% due to the export license expiry at Grasberg. Refined copper imports into China rose 14.1% in September, reflecting strong downstream demand despite weaker premiums in Yunnan. On the global front, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 57,000-ton surplus in July and projected a refined copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025, followed by a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 23.54% to 2,969 while prices gained 4.6. Copper finds support at 988.9, and a break below could test 983.1, while resistance is seen at 999.6, with further upside potential toward 1004.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 983.1-1004.5.

* Copper rose after the White House confirmed a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

* Indonesia may allow copper miner Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrate, after banning concentrate exports last year.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.9 % from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 299.65 amid optimism that China, the world’s largest metals consumer, will announce fresh stimulus measures in its upcoming five-year plan to boost industrial demand. Prices were further supported by tightening supply, as global smelters continue to curb production. Zinc stockpiles on the LME have dropped sharply to around 37.3 thousand tonnes, compared to 230.5 thousand tonnes at the start of the year, while spot zinc traded at a massive $279-a-ton premium to three-month futures, near record highs, reflecting acute tightness in near-term supply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), refined zinc production has fallen over 2% this year despite a 6.3% rise in mined output, mainly due to smelter cutbacks in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of Toho Zinc’s Annaka plant. Meanwhile, global zinc market surplus climbed to 47,900 tonnes in August, bringing the total surplus to 154,000 tonnes for the first eight months of 2025 versus 138,000 tonnes a year earlier. In China, refined zinc output fell 4% month-on-month in September but surged 20% year-on-year, with cumulative production up nearly 9% so far this year. Technically, the market witnessed short covering with open interest falling by -16.94% to 1647 while prices inched higher by 0.35 rupees. Zinc is getting support at 297 and below that could test 294.3 levels, while resistance is seen at 302.4; a move above this may push prices toward 305.1 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 294.3-305.1.

* Zinc gains on hopes that top metals consumer China will unleash more stimulus in its new five-year plan.

* The global zinc market surplus climbed to 47,900 metric tons in August from 38,700 tons in July.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.4% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled slightly lower by -0.08% at 265.5, as traders booked profits after recent gains triggered by supply disruptions. Prices had earlier rallied when Century Aluminium announced a two-thirds production curtailment at its Iceland smelter due to an electrical equipment failure, tightening supply sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.08 million tonnes in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Aluminium stocks at Japan’s three major ports increased modestly by 1.8% to 341,300 tonnes by the end of September. Market fundamentals remain underpinned by tightening supply conditions, as China’s aluminium output cap of 45 million tonnes is likely to be breached this year. Beijing’s decision to slow annual base metal production growth to 1.5% for 2025–2026, compared with 5% earlier, is expected to further restrict supply. In addition, Alcoa’s plan to shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite ore grades adds to supply constraints. On the demand side, long-term consumption remains supported by increasing investment in data centers, which use large volumes of aluminium. China’s aluminium exports fell to 521,000 tonnes in September, while imports surged 35.4% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes, reflecting strong domestic demand. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with open interest dropping by -27.15% to 1,527 while prices eased slightly. Aluminium is getting support at 264.2, with next support at 262.9, whereas resistance is seen at 266.9, and a move above could test 268.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 262.9-268.3.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as Century Aluminium said its smelter in Iceland was forced to curtail production.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.2% from last Friday.

* China aluminium production up 1.8 % to 3.81 mln metric tons in Sept

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled higher by 1.39% at 14,620, supported by concerns over crop damage and limited arrivals in major producing states. Heavy rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka has adversely affected yields, while excessive humidity in Erode has led to disease outbreaks, complicating crop preservation. Reports from Nanded suggest nearly 15% of the turmeric crop area has been damaged by recent rains. Stocks held by farmers in Warangal are almost depleted, with minimal fresh arrivals, further tightening near-term supply and lending strength to prices. Despite the prevailing firmness, upside potential remains capped as acreage is expected to rise due to favorable monsoon conditions and relatively lower profitability in competing crops. Preliminary estimates indicate turmeric acreage may increase by 15–20% this season, reaching around 3.3 lakh hectares compared to 3 lakh hectares last year. Meanwhile, robust market activity continues at key centers like Duggirala, where fresh crop arrivals are commanding price premiums for superior quality. Daily trade volumes remain strong at 1,000–1,200 bags, with about 50–55% of the new crop already traded. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–August 2025 rose by 3.31% to 80,156.56 tonnes year-on-year, with August exports up 7.27% over the same month last year. In Nizamabad, spot prices gained 0.69% to 14,370.3. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 0.6% to 11,630 while prices gained 200. Support is at 14,106 and 13,590, while resistance is seen at 14,942 and 15,262.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13590-15262.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.10% at 19,515 on bargain buying at lower levels amid thin arrivals, as the ongoing Diwali holidays reduced market activity. Gains were supported by the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on jeera to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG-related exports and domestic consumption. However, upside potential remains limited due to subdued export demand following the end of the retail season and the absence of major overseas buying interest. Traders noted that comfortable supplies and sluggish exports are keeping market sentiment cautious. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, while only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving approximately 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock. Current season production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, supported by good weather and crop conditions. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce around 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, cumin production in China has been revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan collectively contribute about 30–33 thousand tonnes. On the export front, jeera shipments during April–August 2025 fell 17.02% year-on-year to 85,977 tonnes, though August exports rose 3.24% month-on-month. In Unjha, spot prices fell 0.68% to 18,796. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 1.99% to 3,099 while prices gained 20. Support is seen at 19,420 and 19,320, with resistance at 19,620 and 19,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19320-19720.

* Jeera prices gained on level buying amid low arrivals.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* The farmers still have about 20 lakh bags of cumin.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18796.35 Rupees dropped by -0.68 percent.

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