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Gold

Gold climbed 0.92% to Rs.84,567, driven by safe-haven buying amid U.S.-China trade tensions. Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating the trade war, while U.S. President Donald Trump signaled no urgency to resolve disputes with China. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials cautioned that trade tariffs could fuel inflation, reinforcing expectations of slower interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold demand in India remained subdued as domestic prices hit record highs, with dealers offering discounts of up to $35 per ounce. The Lunar New Year holiday kept trading muted in key Asian markets, including China and Hong Kong. Swiss customs data showed a 74% drop in gold exports to China in December, reflecting weaker demand. The World Gold Council (WGC) projects India’s gold consumption in 2025 to be between 700-800 metric tons, down from last year's nine-year high of 802.8 tons, as higher prices dampen jewelry demand. However, investment demand remains strong, with retail investors favoring gold ETFs, digital gold, and physical bars. Jewelry demand, which accounts for 70% of India’s gold consumption, is expected to moderate in 2025. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest surged by 3.99% to 17,866 contracts. Support is at Rs.84,095, and a break below could push prices to Rs.83,620. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.84,970, with a further move potentially testing Rs.85,370.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 83620-85370.
* Gold jumped driven by safe-haven demand amid the escalating U.S.-China trade war.
* U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is in no rush to speak with President Xi Jinping to de-escalate tensions.
* Central banks buy more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024 for the third year in a row - World Gold Council


Silver
Silver rose 0.27% to Rs.95,965, supported by safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions. The U.S. imposed 10% tariffs on China, prompting Beijing’s retaliatory measures, while tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed. The Federal Reserve remains inclined toward rate cuts, though uncertainty over U.S. policies persists. Meanwhile, U.S. private payrolls rose by 183K in January 2025, exceeding expectations of 150K, signaling resilience in the job market. On the supply side, silver is expected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, despite a 3% increase in total supply to 1.05 billion ounces. Mine production is forecasted to hit a seven-year high of 844 Moz, while silver recycling is expected to rise by 5% to over 200 Moz. Industrial demand remains strong, projected to increase by 3% to over 700 Moz, driven by green energy applications. However, jewelry demand is set to decline by 6%, with India experiencing a double-digit drop due to high prices. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 1.89% to 25,082 contracts. Support is at Rs.95,325, and a break below could push prices to Rs.94,680. On the upside, resistance is at Rs.96,550, and a move beyond this level could see prices testing Rs.97,130.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 94680-97130.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices rallied amid global trade and economic uncertainties.
* Private businesses in the US added 183K workers to their payrolls in January 2025
* The Silver Institute recently forecasted a fifth consecutive year of significant market deficits for silver in 2025


Crude Oil
Crude oil declined 1.78% to Rs.6,230 as rising U.S. stockpiles and fears of a Sino-U.S. trade war weighed on market sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 8.7 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, far exceeding expectations of a 2 million-barrel rise. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks climbed by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 5.5 million barrels, supporting short-term demand concerns. Refinery runs increased by 160,000 barrels per day, with utilization rates rising 1%. However, net U.S. crude imports fell by 178,000 barrels per day, reflecting supply-side adjustments. Iran's oil exports remain a key focus, with President Donald Trump pushing to eliminate Tehran’s crude exports, potentially leading to supply disruptions. Iran generated $53 billion in oil revenue in 2023, with output at its highest level since 2018, per OPEC data. In response, Iran urged OPEC members to resist U.S. sanctions to maintain market stability. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected global oil production to average 104.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from previous estimates, while demand is expected at 104.1 million bpd, reflecting a weaker consumption outlook. Technically, the crude oil market remains under selling pressure, with open interest surging by 66.98% to 8,763 contracts. Support is at Rs.6,181, and a break below may push prices to Rs.6,131. Resistance is at Rs.6,320, with a potential upside target of Rs.6,409 if sentiment improves.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6131-6409.
* Crude oil dropped amid rising U.S. stockpiles and ongoing trade tensions between U.S. and China may dampen demand.
* Iran's oil minister said imposing unilateral sanctions on crude producers would destabilise energy markets.
* Crude inventories rose by 8.7 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels in the week ended January 31, the EIA said


Natural Gas
Natural gas dropped 0.63% to Rs.285.7 as increased U.S. production and reduced tariff risks weighed on prices. President Donald Trump’s suspension of steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico lowered concerns over import costs, reducing price support. Additionally, average U.S. gas output rose to 106.0 bcfd in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January, as freeze-offs that had earlier impacted supply eased. However, daily output dipped to 105.1 bcfd, down from the 106.6 bcfd record on January 31. Weather remains a key driver, with forecasts indicating a switch from warm conditions to colder-than-normal temperatures from February 9-19. The expected rise in demand has lifted LSEG’s gas consumption forecast from 123.8 bcfd this week to 132.7 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities withdrew 321 bcf from storage, surpassing expectations of 313 bcf, marking only the fourth time withdrawals exceeded 300 bcf in a week. Storage now stands at 2,571 bcf, 5.3% below last year’s levels and 4.1% under the five-year average. The EIA projects record-high gas output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production expected to rise from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 to 104.5 bcfd in 2025 and 107.2 bcfd in 2026. Meanwhile, LNG exports are forecasted to reach 14.1 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026, up from 12.0 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market remains under selling pressure, with open interest rising by 9.83% to 12,168 contracts. Support is at Rs.278.7, with a break below testing Rs.271.7. Resistance is at Rs.290.5, with a move above leading to Rs.295.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 271.7-295.3.
* Natural gas fell as less gas flows to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
* Pressure also seen as President Donald Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January.


Copper
Copper rose 1.32% to Rs.850.95, supported by improving demand in major manufacturing economies and ongoing supply constraints. US factory activity expanded for the first time in over two years, boosting sentiment for base metals. Additionally, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI indicated expansion, offsetting earlier concerns from the official NBS PMI, which reflected volatility due to trade tensions and festive-season inventory adjustments. Beijing’s planned fiscal stimulus measures also reinforced hopes for stronger industrial demand. On the supply front, Chile’s copper production increased 14.3% year-on-year in December to 566,547 metric tons, while Peru’s Las Bambas mine expects to produce 400,000 metric tons in 2025. However, Chile revised its long-term output forecast downward, now expecting 5.54 million tons by 2034, down from 6.34 million tons, highlighting supply constraints. Antofagasta’s 2024 production rose just 1% to 664,000 metric tons, missing its guidance due to lower ore grades. The global refined copper market saw a significant 131,000 metric tons deficit in November, widening from a 30,000 metric tons deficit in October, indicating tightening supply. However, for the first 11 months of 2023, the market was in a 168,000 metric tons surplus, compared to an 89,000 metric tons deficit in the prior year. Technically, copper remains in fresh buying territory, with open interest rising 1.23% to 6,355 contracts. Support is at Rs.842.5, with a break below testing Rs.834.1, while resistance is at Rs.855.8, with a move above pushing prices towards Rs.860.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 834.1-860.7.
* Copper rose supported by traction in the world’s largest manufacturing sectors.
* US factory activity underwent its first expansion in over two years during January.
* Caixin pointed to an expansion in Chinese factory activity, easing earlier concerns from a contractionary NBS PMI.


Zinc
Zinc fell 0.21% to Rs.267.3, as traders assessed the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China. China imposed tariffs on select US goods and launched an anti-trust probe into Google, following Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. This uncertainty weighed on market sentiment, while a slower composite PMI in China (51.1 in January vs. 51.4 in December) added to concerns about economic growth. The slowdown was driven by weaker services sector performance, despite improved manufacturing activity. However, downside remained limited amid ongoing supply concerns. Global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, exacerbated by a 7% decline in refined zinc output from China due to lower processing rates. Additionally, output from Alaska’s Red Dog Mine is expected to decline in 2025, raising supply constraints. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 52,900 metric tons in November from 65,400 tons in October, though a 33,000-ton deficit in 2024 contrasts with the 312,000-ton surplus in 2023. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production increased 1% month-on-month in January but declined 8% year-on-year, with further declines expected in February due to holiday shutdowns and maintenance activities. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.8% to 3,227 contracts. Support is at Rs.265, with a break below testing Rs.262.8, while resistance is at Rs.268.6, with a move above pushing prices towards ?270.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 262.8-270.
* Zinc dropped as traders weighed the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
* The US delayed imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico by one month, easing market concerns.
* In January 2025, China refined zinc production increased by 1% MoM


Aluminium
Aluminium rose 0.41% to Rs.254.95, supported by the European Union’s proposal to gradually ban Russian aluminium imports. The ban, which includes aluminium alloys, will be phased in over a year, with an exemption for 275,000 metric tons deemed necessary. However, upside was limited due to escalating US-China trade tensions, following Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese goods. China has responded by filing a WTO complaint and is preparing countermeasures. Investors are watching for potential Chinese stimulus measures to support demand as aluminium consumption is expected to recover after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the supply side, China’s aluminium output reached a record 44 million tons in 2024, with production expected to slow due to government-imposed caps aimed at controlling emissions. In December, China’s aluminium output rose 4.2% year-on-year to 3.77 million tons, though daily production dropped 1.7% month-on-month. Meanwhile, China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products surged 17% in the first ten months of 2024, reaching 5.5 million tons. Aluminium stocks at Japanese ports rose 13.2% in December to 323,600 metric tons, adding to global inventory concerns. Additionally, the industry’s average profit turned negative for the first time in three years, with producers facing losses of 687 yuan per ton due to rising costs. Technically, aluminium remains in a fresh buying phase, with open interest increasing by 7.1% to 4,013 contracts. Support is at Rs.253.2, with a break below testing Rs.251.4, while resistance is seen at Rs.256, with a move above pushing prices toward Rs.257.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.4-257.
* Aluminium gains as European Union's plan to gradually ban Russian aluminum imports has sparked concerns.
* Market focus will be on whether China announces further stimulus measures to boost its economy.
* The European Union's plan to gradually ban Russian aluminium imports has sparked concerns.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy rose 0.09% to Rs.53,830, supported by supply constraints and fluctuating production estimates. Brazil’s cotton production forecast for 2024-25 was lowered to 3.79 million tonnes, down from 3.83 million tonnes, due to a reduction in acreage in Mato Grosso, the largest producing region. Meanwhile, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) raised India's production estimates by 2 lakh bales, bringing the total to 304.25 lakh bales. Higher-than-expected production in Telangana (+6 lakh bales) contributed to this revision, while North India saw a decline of 3.5 lakh bales. Despite this, the market remains cautious, as kapas arrivals in North Indian states have dropped 43% year-on-year until November 30, causing supply disruptions. Farmers in Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are holding back their produce, expecting better prices, while ginners and spinners face raw material shortages. Additionally, rising cotton yarn prices in South India due to strong demand from the garment industry and export orders are lending support. Total supplies till December-end were 176.04 lakh bales, with consumption at 84 lakh bales and exports at 7 lakh bales. December-end stocks stood at 85.04 lakh bales, while CAI raised its annual consumption forecast to 315 lakh bales, indicating a pickup in demand. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest dropped 3.36% to 259 contracts. Support is at Rs.53,170, with a break below potentially testing Rs.52,500. Resistance is seen at Rs.54,180, with a move above leading to Rs.54,520.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52500-54520.
* Cotton gained as Brazil's 2024-25 cotton production forecast was revised down to 3.79 million tonnes.
* CAI has revised upwards its crop projections by 2 lakh bales from its earlier estimates.
* Global cotton production is projected to rise by more than 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million bales.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25243.1 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric rose 0.21% to close at 13,296, supported by concerns over lower yield estimates as new crop production is expected to be 10-15% lower this year. Nanded, a key producing region, has reported smaller rhizomes and crop rot issues, further fueling uncertainty regarding total output. However, the actual impact on supply will become clearer once harvesting gains pace across primary producing regions. Despite lower yield expectations, price gains were limited due to weak demand and an increase in arrivals. Spot market arrivals surged to 13,190 bags, almost double the previous session’s 6,780 bags, including higher inflows in Nizamabad and Hingoli. With peak arrivals expected in the next month, prices may remain under pressure as demand struggles to absorb the supply influx. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose 9.80% during April-November 2024, reaching 121,601.21 tonnes compared to 110,745.34 tonnes in the same period in 2023. However, November exports declined by 20.18% from October levels but were 48.22% higher year-on-year. Meanwhile, imports doubled to 18,937.95 tonnes, with a 34.84% drop in November compared to October, reflecting fluctuating domestic demand. Technically, the market remains in fresh buying mode, with open interest rising 0.12% to 12,175 contracts. Support is seen at 13,196, with a break below possibly testing 13,094 levels. On the upside, resistance is at 13,360, and a move above could push prices toward 13,422.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13094-13422.
* Turmeric gains as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* Support also seen amid concerns over slow growth of rhizomes and low yield estimates persist.
* With the arrival of new crop likely to increase after Makar Sankranti, supply is expected to increase.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13352.8 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.


Jeera
Jeera closed marginally higher by 0.02% at Rs.20,910, as demand remains subdued while existing stock supplies cater to ongoing export business. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags likely to be traded before the season ends, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. However, downside pressure is limited due to tight domestic stocks despite production expectations remaining similar to last year, supported by better crop conditions and improved sowing. India’s jeera production increased significantly to 8.6 lakh tonnes over an area of 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares in the previous year. Despite high output, India remains the cheapest cumin supplier globally, attracting buyers, including China, which is expected to boost exports. Currently, Indian jeera is priced at $3,050 per tonne, while Chinese cumin is $200-$250 higher, making India the most competitive source. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven strong demand for cumin seed exports from Gujarat. On the trade front, jeera exports surged 74.04% between April and November 2024, reaching 1,47,006.20 tonnes, up from 84,467.16 tonnes in the same period in 2023. However, November exports dropped 28.92% from October levels but were 42.67% higher year-on-year. Technically, the market remains in fresh buying mode, with open interest rising 1.98% to 2,622 contracts. Support is seen at Rs.20,700, with a break below possibly testing Rs.20,490 levels. On the upside, resistance is at Rs.21,140, and a move above could push prices toward Rs.21,370.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20490-21370.
* Jeera settled flat as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* However, only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.
* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions and good sowing.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21255.65 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

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