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Gold

Gold prices surged sharply yesterday, settling 1.33% higher at 1,07,195, marking a new all-time high after crossing 1,06,900. The rally was driven by growing expectations of imminent US monetary easing and strong safe-haven demand amid heightened political and economic uncertainties. Markets are now factoring in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, especially after Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious hints, while traders keenly await Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data for further clarity. Political tensions between President Trump and the Fed, particularly his criticism of Powell and disputes over tariffs, have added to concerns regarding the Fed’s independence, further boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. On the demand side, SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 1.01% to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, signaling strong investor appetite. Physical demand in India also saw a mild pickup as jewellers restocked ahead of the festive season, with dealers charging premiums up to $4 per ounce over domestic prices. In China, premiums ranged between $0–$5, while Hong Kong and Singapore markets quoted around $2.50, reflecting steady demand across Asia. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying with open interest jumping 7.44% to 18,953 alongside a 1,403 rise in prices. Support is now placed at 1,06,295, with a break below exposing 1,05,385, while resistance is seen at 1,07,670. A move above this could pave the way toward testing 1,08,135 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 105385-108135.

* Gold hits record high above 1,06,900 on Fed easing hopes, safe-haven demand.

* Powell’s cautious remarks fueled bets on September rate cut decision.

* Tariff uncertainty and legal battles increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver

Silver prices extended gains yesterday, settling 1.08% higher at 1,25,872, holding near record levels after briefly crossing the 1,26,000 mark. The rally was driven by safe-haven demand amid fiscal strains, renewed trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. Market expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, further supported the bullish momentum. Geopolitical uncertainty escalated after President Xi Jinping’s stern warning of “peace or war,” coupled with US President Trump’s accusations against China, adding to global risk aversion. On the industrial front, silver demand remains underpinned by China’s solar boom, with solar cell exports surging more than 70% in the first half of 2025, led by strong shipments to India. Broader optimism in industrial metals, amid resumed US-China trade talks, has also strengthened sentiment. Investment demand has surged, with silver ETP inflows hitting 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, surpassing last year’s total. Global silver ETP holdings now stand at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the 2021 peak, reflecting sustained investor confidence. Retail investment demand is also robust, rising 7% year-on-year in India during H1 2025, while Europe continues its late-2024 recovery. Technically, silver is under fresh buying as open interest rose 1.65% to 20,364 alongside a 1,342 price gain. Support is seen at 1,24,510, with further downside risk toward 1,23,150. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,26,765, and a breakout could drive prices toward 1,27,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 123150-127660.

* Silver lingering at its record level amid fiscal strains, renewed trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical risks.

* Markets priced 92% chance of September Federal Reserve rate cut.

* China’s solar boom boosted silver demand, solar exports rose 70%.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply yesterday, settling down by -2.63% at 5,634, as traders positioned cautiously ahead of the weekend OPEC+ meeting that may decide on further production hikes from October. The group, which accounts for about half of the world’s oil supply, is considering unwinding another layer of output cuts amounting to 1.65 million barrels per day, more than a year earlier than initially planned. This comes on top of a 2.2 million bpd quota hike already agreed for April–September, alongside an additional 300,000 bpd allocated to the UAE. The move reflects OPEC+’s attempt to reclaim market share following years of supply restraint. On the supply front, Russian seaborne exports to China rebounded strongly as demand shifted from India, impacted by aggressive U.S. tariff measures. Meanwhile, U.S. data presented a mixed demand outlook: ISM Manufacturing PMI pointed to weaker fuel demand, but EIA figures showed crude inventories fell by 2.392 million barrels, beating expectations. Stocks at Cushing declined by 838,000 barrels, while gasoline fell by 1.2 million barrels—less than forecasts. Distillates dropped by 1.8 million barrels, defying expectations of a rise, highlighting a tighter product balance. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 0.91% to 11,539 while prices fell by 152. Support is now seen at 5,578, with a break below likely to test 5,522. Resistance is placed at 5,737, and a move above could push prices toward 5,840.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5522-5840.

* Crude oil falls before OPEC+ meet on possible October output hike.

* OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 2.2 million bpd.

* UAE granted additional 300,000 bpd production quota increase recently.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices climbed by 2.79% to settle at 269.2 yesterday, supported by a notable dip in daily output despite otherwise bearish fundamentals. Production in the Lower 48 states slipped to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early September, down from August’s record 108.3 bcfd. On a daily basis, output fell to a preliminary seven-week low of 106.1 bcfd, compared to Tuesday’s one-week high of 108.5 bcfd, highlighting supply volatility. This decline occurred even though storage levels remain comfortable, with inventories sitting around 5% above the five-year seasonal average. Weekly storage data showed U.S. energy firms injected 18 billion cubic feet into stockpiles for the week ended August 22, well below market expectations of 26 bcf, suggesting a tighter balance. Record production so far in 2025 has allowed steady injections through the summer, but the recent pullback in output has provided short-term price support. Demand outlook, however, remains soft with mild weather and expectations of lower consumption next week than earlier projections. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects both output and demand will touch record highs in 2025 before marginally easing in 2026.  Technically, natural gas is under short covering, with open interest dropping 14.79% to 24,067 contracts while prices gained 7.3. Support is placed at 261.8, below which 254.3 could be tested. Resistance is seen at 276.4, and a breakout may push prices toward 283.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.3-283.5.

* Natural gas climbed on a recent drop in daily output.

* That price increase came despite ample supplies of gas in storage, a small decline in flows to LNG export plants.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September.

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.11% to settle at 906.2 yesterday, as profit booking weighed after recent gains driven by optimism around Chinese economic resilience and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Surveys indicated that China’s manufacturing sector expanded in August, supported by a rise in new orders, while services activity grew at the fastest pace in 15 months, signaling robust domestic demand. This has reinforced expectations of stronger demand prospects for industrial metals like copper. On the supply side, mixed inventory signals emerged. LME copper stocks climbed to 158,900 mt, a three-month high, while SHFE copper inventories fell 2.39% to 79,748 mt. COMEX inventories, however, surged to 277,843 mt, the highest since January 2004, adding to pressure. Meanwhile, global refined copper markets showed a surplus of 36,000 mt in June, narrower than May’s 79,000 mt, with a cumulative surplus of 251,000 mt for the first half of 2025, according to ICSG data. World output in June stood at 2.43 million mt against consumption of 2.40 million mt. From a production standpoint, Chile’s July copper output rose modestly by 0.3% YoY to 445,214 mt, while Peru’s output surged 7.1% YoY in June, driven by Las Bambas mine activity. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.33% to 6,643 contracts. Prices are finding support at 901.7, below which 897.1 could be tested. Resistance is seen at 910.2, and a breakout above may push prices toward 914.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 897.1-914.1.

* Copper prices dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid upbeat Chinese economic data.

* Further, concerns about the economic growth due to broad U.S. import tariffs persist and weigh on sentiment.

* China services activity expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months in August.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.18% to settle at 275.25 yesterday, supported by expectations of potential capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners. However, gains remained capped as concerns over slowing Chinese industrial activity continue to cloud the demand outlook. Earlier in the year, Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, highlighting tightening supply dynamics. LME zinc inventories have fallen sharply by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to just 42,000 tonnes, while SHFE zinc stocks rose slightly by 1.3% from the prior week, indicating mixed signals in the supply chain. On the macroeconomic front, Euro zone businesses reported an increase in new orders in August for the first time since May 2024, lifting overall activity to the fastest pace in 15 months. Meanwhile, global refined zinc dynamics remained varied. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global zinc deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in June from 31,400 tonnes in May. China’s refined zinc output continued to rise, increasing 3% MoM and nearly 23% YoY in July, with cumulative YTD production up over 4% YoY.  Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.02% to 3,756 contracts. Zinc has support at 273.7, below which levels of 272.1 could be tested, while resistance is pegged at 277.2, and a break above could take prices to 279.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.1-279.1.

* Zinc gains amid likelihood of capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.3% from last Friday.

* Zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped marginally by -0.18% to settle at 255.05 yesterday, weighed down by concerns over U.S. tariffs that dampened factory activity across parts of Asia. However, downside pressure was limited as upbeat Chinese economic data and optimism over potential U.S. interest rate cuts supported market sentiment. A private sector survey indicated that China’s factory activity in August expanded at the fastest pace in five months, driven by stronger new orders, improving demand prospects for industrial metals. On the supply-demand balance, the global primary aluminium market posted a surplus of 183,100 tonnes in June, with production at 6.09 million tonnes exceeding consumption of 5.91 million tonnes. However, in the first half of 2025, global output of 36.85 million tonnes slightly lagged behind consumption of 36.88 million tonnes, resulting in a marginal shortage. July’s global aluminium production rose 2.5% YoY to 6.37 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Supply risks are also emerging. Guinea, a key bauxite exporter, revoked mining licenses and transferred them to a state-owned entity, raising uncertainty for Emirates Global Aluminium. Meanwhile, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique, Africa’s second-largest aluminium plant, due to power supply issues. Technically, the market is under fresh selling with open interest rising 2.64% to 4,117 contracts. Aluminium has support at 254.4, below which it could test 253.6, while resistance lies at 255.8, with a move above opening the way to 256.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 253.6-256.4.

* Aluminium dropped amid worries about U.S. tariffs, which helped to dampen factory activity in parts of Asia.

* The global primary aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June.

* China's factory activity in August expanded at the quickest pace in five months on the back of rising new orders.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices extended gains yesterday, settling 1.23% higher at 12,380 as depleted farmer-held stocks in Warangal and the absence of fresh arrivals over the past two days supported market firmness. The ongoing dry weather has facilitated timely planting, and while crop conditions remain favorable, market sentiment is cautious with inflows staying thin. Despite the near-term firmness, the downside remains capped as acreage for the 2025–26 season is expected to rise by 15–20% due to favorable rains and relatively lower profitability in competing crops. The turmeric area for 2024–25 was already up by 10% year-on-year at 3.30 lakh hectares, highlighting steady supply prospects ahead. In Duggirala, strong demand for fresh arrivals is keeping trade volumes robust at around 1,000–1,200 bags daily, with buyers willing to pay a premium for new stock over older produce due to superior quality. Nearly 50–55% of the total new crop has been traded so far, and with harvesting still ongoing, steady inflows are likely to continue in the coming weeks. On the export front, April–June 2025 shipments rose 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes from 46,498.64 tonnes a year earlier, though June 2025 exports slipped 7.93% year-on-year and dropped sharply by 28.21% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest edged up by 0.72% to 17,605 while prices rose 150. Support is placed at 12,216, below which levels of 12,054 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 12,476, with a breakout likely to push prices toward 12,574.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12054-12574.

* Turmeric gained as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13354.95 Rupees gained by 0.69 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices remained under mild pressure yesterday, settling down by -0.05% at 19,230 amid subdued domestic and export demand after the conclusion of the retail season. Traders highlighted that foreign buyers are largely inactive, while comfortable supplies and adequate carry-forward stocks are keeping prices rangebound. Farmers continue to hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, though only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. This is weighing on sentiment despite reduced global supplies from other producing nations. On the production side, India’s cumin output for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, supported by favorable crop conditions in Gujarat (42–45 lakh bags) and Rajasthan (48–50 lakh bags). Globally, adverse weather has reduced production estimates in China to 70–80 thousand tonnes against earlier projections of 1 lakh tonnes. Similarly, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce only 9–12 thousand tonnes each, indicating a tighter global supply scenario. Jeera exports during April–June 2025 fell sharply by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes against 73,666.09 tonnes a year earlier. June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year but dropped 29.67% compared to May 2025, reflecting inconsistent overseas demand trends. Technically, Jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest falling -1.47% to 4,233. Immediate support lies at 19,200, below which prices could test 19,160, while resistance is seen at 19,270, with a move above opening the door for 19,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-19300.

* Jeera settled flat due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19566.25 Rupees dropped by -0.67 percent.

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