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Gold

Gold settled 0.74% higher at Rs. 143,073, gaining Rs. 1,049 as softer oil prices eased inflation concerns ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. Investors are assessing the Fed's interest rate outlook amid persistent Middle East tensions, with traders pricing in a 9% probability of a rate hike on Wednesday and an 80% chance of a December increase. Lower energy prices could moderate inflationary pressures, although geopolitical risks continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal. In physical markets, Indian gold premiums rose to $9 per ounce from $7 last week as lower prices during the Dussehra festival boosted purchases. Chinese premiums stood at $9-$10 per ounce, although jewellery demand remained weak. China's central bank increased gold holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces in September, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months, while the value of its reserves declined to $323.52 billion from $350.08 billion amid price fluctuations. London vault holdings rose 1.96% month-on-month to 9,821 tonnes at the end of September. Swiss gold exports increased 6% to 165.2 tonnes, their highest since February 2025, driven by shipments to Britain, which climbed to 126.2 tonnes. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, although a more hawkish Fed could trigger a near-term correction. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 1.39% to 15,996 contracts while prices gained Rs. 1,049. Gold is finding support at Rs. 142,320, followed by Rs. 141,560, while resistance is placed at Rs. 143,600. A sustained move above this resistance could push prices towards Rs. 144,120, whereas a break below Rs. 142,320 may extend the downside towards Rs. 141,560.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 141560-144120.

• Gold climbed as softer oil prices eased some inflation concerns

• Investors looked forward to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting set for Tuesday and Wednesday for clues.

• Traders price in 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December

• $4,000 level seen as a buying opportunity- UBS analyst

Silver

Silver settled 0.04% higher at Rs. 195,793, gaining Rs. 74, as investors monitored Middle East developments and awaited the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting. Easing oil prices moderated inflation concerns, while renewed diplomatic efforts by Qatar to de-escalate regional tensions supported cautious optimism. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, although markets anticipate a possible quarter-point rate hike in December. Upcoming monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan, alongside US GDP and PCE inflation data, will influence market sentiment. India has issued permits to import approximately 6,500 tonnes of silver over the next six months to meet festive-season demand following earlier import restrictions. However, domestic premiums declined to 45 cents per ounce from $2.50 last week. London's silver vault holdings increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. Fundamentally, the global silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial silver fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth and industrial consumption. In contrast, coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%, supported by recovering US investment demand. Global silver supply is expected to decline 2%, while approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting persistent structural tightness despite improved market liquidity. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 1.15% to 16,683 contracts while prices gained Rs. 74. The metal is finding support at Rs. 193,140, followed by Rs. 190,490, while resistance is placed at Rs. 197,820. A sustained move above this resistance could push prices towards Rs. 199,840, whereas a break below Rs. 193,140 may extend the downside towards Rs. 190,490.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 190490-199840.

• Silver edged higher as investors closely monitored the situation in ME and awaited an upcoming Fed interest-rate decision.

• Easing oil prices tempered inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting.

• A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran as part of renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate reginal tensions in coordination with US.

• Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but a quarter point rate hike is still widely expected at December meeting.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.79% lower at Rs. 9,723, declining Rs. 77 as hopes of easing hostilities between the United States and Iran outweighed concerns over continued attacks on Saudi Arabia and potential supply disruptions. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran to support diplomatic efforts, while officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan prepared for high-level discussions with Iranian leaders. However, the International Energy Agency warned that energy markets in 2027 may not return to pre-war conditions. US crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, exceeding expectations for a draw of 820,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a decline. Refinery utilisation eased 0.1 percentage points to 93.4%, while crude stocks at Cushing increased by 987,000 barrels. OPEC revised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast downward to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but raised its 2027 outlook on expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred demand. Saudi Arabia's reported September crude production reached 8.372 million barrels per day, up more than 2 million barrels per day from August, according to figures submitted to OPEC. Meanwhile, the IEA reported that Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although output remained below year-ago levels. Saudi Aramco also plans to begin storing crude oil in Singapore from the second half of 2027 to strengthen regional supply-chain resilience. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 0.97% to 14,642 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 77. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 9,580, followed by Rs. 9,440, while resistance stands at Rs. 9,845. A sustained move above Rs. 9,845 could push prices towards Rs. 9,970, whereas a break below Rs. 9,580 may extend the decline towards Rs. 9,440.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9440-9970.

• Crude oil ‌prices fell amid hopes of easing hostilities between the United States and Iran.

• Qatari mediators travel to Tehran to de-escalate tensions, official briefed on situation says

• Top officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran

• Saudi Aramco to start storing crude in Singapore from second half of 2027

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.24% lower at Rs. 292 as warmer weather forecasts across most of the northern two-thirds of the United States dampened expectations for near-term heating demand. Prices also faced pressure from recovering production, with output across the Lower 48 states averaging around 113.3 billion cubic feet per day over the past week, although monthly production remained lower at 111.6 billion cubic feet per day. However, average gas flows to nine major LNG export terminals increased to 18.2 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, providing some underlying support. US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, below market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet, the previous year's build of 86 billion cubic feet and the five-year average of 87 billion cubic feet. Total inventories rose to 3.644 trillion cubic feet, remaining 4% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. The Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to increase to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and supply growth exceeding projected demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. Technically, natural gas is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 1.09% to 43,902 contracts while prices fell Rs. 0.70. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 287.00, followed by Rs. 281.50, while resistance stands at Rs. 295.50. A sustained move above Rs. 295.50 could push prices towards Rs. 299.50, whereas a break below Rs. 287.00 may extend the decline towards Rs. 281.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 281.50-299.50.

• Natural gas prices dropped as warm weather forecasts dampened expectations for near-term heating demand.

• Prices faced pressure from a recovery in daily production, with output across the US Lower 48 states averaging around 113.3 bcfd

• Meteorologists expect temperatures to remain above normal, likely keeping heating demand subdued.

• Average gas flows to the nine major LNG export terminals rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September

Copper

Copper settled 0.73% higher at Rs. 1,393.05, gaining Rs. 10.15, supported by stronger Chinese demand expectations and persistent mine supply disruptions. China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to $168 per tonne, its highest level since 2014, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined more than 25% to 54,356 tonnes. China's third-quarter GDP growth stood at 4.5%, while September industrial production increased 5.5% year-on-year, reinforcing demand optimism. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September. Supply concerns persisted as Chilean production remained uneven, with Codelco's August output rising nearly 9% year-on-year to 101,700 tonnes, while production at Escondida fell 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi declined 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. Peru's copper output also decreased 5% year-on-year to 230,676 tonnes in August. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a 45,000-tonne deficit in July, taking the cumulative surplus for the first eight months to 218,000 tonnes. The ICSG expects the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by rising production and smelter capacity, although energy transition investments, data centres, artificial intelligence and manufacturing activity are expected to sustain consumption growth. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing tightening markets outside the United States and weaker mine supply. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 7.3% to 5,585 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 10.15. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 1,381.50, followed by Rs. 1,370.00, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,400.50. A sustained move above Rs. 1,400.50 could push prices towards Rs. 1,408.00, whereas a break below Rs. 1,381.50 may trigger further weakness towards Rs. 1,370.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1370.00-1408.00.

• Copper gained amid stronger China demand expectations, and mine-supply disruptions.

• ShFE copper stocks fell more than 25% to 54,356 tons.

• Global refined copper market showed a 132,000 metric tons surplus in August, compared with a 45,000 metric tons deficit in July.

Zinc

Zinc settled 3.03% higher at Rs. 412.65, gaining Rs. 12.15, as falling inventories, elevated power prices and supply concerns supported market sentiment. The global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 5% week-on-week to 137,139 tonnes, their lowest level since March, while available London Metal Exchange inventories stood at 133,700 tonnes. The LME cash contract traded at an approximately $80 per tonne premium over the three-month forward contract, indicating near-term supply tightness. Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability, while uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added to supply concerns. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September. However, expectations of recovering Chinese mine output and increased concentrate availability could limit further gains. The global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 96,000 tonnes during the first eight months of 2026, compared with 133,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. The ILZSG expects the market to shift from a projected deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, as refined production rises 2% to 14.21 million tonnes and mine production increases 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is forecast to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the United States, although slower Chinese real estate investment may constrain demand growth. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 7.03% to 1,461 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 12.15. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 403.00, followed by Rs. 394.00, while resistance stands at Rs. 418.50. A sustained move above Rs. 418.50 could push prices towards Rs. 424.50, whereas a break below Rs. 403.00 may trigger a decline towards Rs. 394.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 394.00-424.50.

• Zinc jumped as falling inventories and rising power prices boosted sentiment.

• SHFE zinc stocks fell 5% from the previous week to 137,139 tons, the lowest since March.

• The cash LME zinc contract was at a roughly $80 a ton premium over the three-month forward, pointing to near-term tightness.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.34% higher at Rs. 327.55, gaining Rs. 1.10, supported by declining exchange inventories and supply concerns, although expectations of a global surplus in 2027 capped gains. London Metal Exchange inventories fell 1,750 tonnes, or 0.74%, to 234,100 tonnes on October 26, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks declined 10.2% from the previous Friday. However, global primary aluminium production decreased 1.4% year-on-year to 6.014 million tonnes in September, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China's primary aluminium production rose 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tonnes in September, while third-quarter output increased 2.2% year-on-year to 11.84 million tonnes, reflecting sustained smelter operating rates and strong production margins. China's output reached 35.03 million tonnes during the first nine months, up 3.8% year-on-year. Supply conditions are also improving as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, and Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year-on-year, adding to global supply availability. Analysts expect the global aluminium market to move into a surplus potentially exceeding one million tonnes in 2027 as Indonesian production expands and Gulf smelter shipments recover. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, indicating easing regional supply pressure. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 17.76% to 3,647 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 1.10. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 325.50, followed by Rs. 323.50, while resistance stands at Rs. 329.50. A sustained move above Rs. 329.50 could push prices towards Rs. 331.00, whereas a break below Rs. 325.50 may extend the decline towards Rs. 323.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 323.50-331.00.

• Aluminum gains as LME inventories fell by 0.74%, indicating a tight exchange-stock cushion.

• Global primary aluminium output in September fell 1.4% year on year to 6.014 million tonnes.

• However upside was capped amid risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting, and persistent concerns over a CY27 global surplus.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 2.63% higher at Rs. 27,316, gaining Rs. 700, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Stockholders have become reluctant to release inventories following earlier liquidation, while concerns over deficient rainfall, El Niño-related weather risks and potential yield losses have strengthened bullish sentiment. Karnataka's joint drought survey reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of approximately 18,000-20,000 hectares. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with reservoir replenishment in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing has been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, improving crop conditions. Despite these developments, reduced carryforward stocks continue to tighten availability, with industry estimates placing inventories at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Although one assessment projects India's turmeric production to increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, weather conditions during crop development remain crucial. Export trends were mixed, with India's turmeric exports declining 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026 from 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. August shipments to the UAE rose 50% to 3,021 tonnes, while exports to the Netherlands increased 57% to 697 tonnes and Brazil grew 37% to 654 tonnes. Demand for European Union compliant Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric also provided support, although stricter residue requirements pressured non-compliant commercial grades. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices rose 1.53% to Rs. 25,082.70. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 4.21% to 18,445 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 700. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 26,690, followed by Rs. 26,060, while resistance stands at Rs. 27,790. A sustained move above Rs. 27,790 could push prices towards Rs. 28,270, whereas a break below Rs. 26,690 may trigger a decline towards Rs. 26,060.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 26060-28270.

• Turmeric prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25082.7 Rupees gained by 1.53 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.76% lower at Rs. 25,905, declining Rs. 465, as profit booking emerged after recent gains, while traders monitored early sowing prospects and export demand. Despite the correction, tight supplies of premium-quality bold seeds and expectations of lower domestic production continued to provide underlying support. Arrivals across major trading centres, including Unjha and Rajasthan, have started tapering, while farmers are reportedly holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period. However, farmer liquidation to generate cash flow, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders have limited buying interest. Estimates indicate India's cumin production could decline to 90-92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. International production prospects remain mixed, as adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's estimated output to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. Export demand remains a concern, with India's jeera exports falling 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026 from 14,532 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-August declined to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes. August shipments to the United States increased 16.5% to 1,517 tonnes, while exports to Singapore surged 1,442% to 633 tonnes and Mexico rose 149.5% to 373 tonnes. However, shipments to the United Arab Emirates fell 81.6% to 453 tonnes. On a broader annual basis, exports declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes during September 2025-August 2026. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.19% to Rs. 26,032.45. Technically, jeera is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 3.02% to 8,856 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 465. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 25,620, followed by Rs. 25,340, while resistance stands at Rs. 26,200. A sustained move above Rs. 26,200 could push prices towards Rs. 26,490, whereas a break below Rs. 25,620 may extend the decline towards Rs. 25,340.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25340-26490.

• Jeera on profit booking after prices GAINED rallied amid continued tightness with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26032.45 Rupees dropped by 0.19 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views