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The Week That Was

• Comex gold recorded its steepest weekly decline of over 4% since Jun’26. The spike in crude oil prices heightened inflation concerns, prompting markets to anticipate potential Fed rate hikes to contain inflation, thereby dampening the appeal of the yellow metal. Additionally, a strong dollar index acted as a headwind for gold prices. Meanwhile, recent US data showed consumer and producer inflation rising more than expected, largely driven by higher energy costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures. Despite this, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their 27-28th October meeting. Investors now await US PCE inflation data due on 29th October for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

• Silver prices extended their losing streak for a second consecutive week, declining by more than 5% last week and settling below the $55 level for the first time since Nov’25, indicating that bears remain in control. Additionally, hotter-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data released last week, largely driven by rising energy costs, reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy.

• WTI crude oil surged above $100 per barrel, gaining more than 2% for the week amid a fatal drone strike on a Saudi Aramco facility and the US State Department’s mandatory evacuation order for non-essential personnel in Saudi Arabia supported prices at the lower level. Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was prepared for asymmetric warfare after strengthening its capabilities. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments could occur soon. US and Israeli officials have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes after the US midterm elections. Regional tensions have also intensified as Iran-aligned Houthi militants continue attacks on Saudi Arabia.

• Comex copper ended slightly lower in the last session, declining by close to 1%, as a rise in LME inventories this week eased physical market tightness, triggering profit booking in the metal. However, long-term demand remains strong, supported by electrification, EVs and data centres. The US accounts for about 6% of global copper consumption but holds around 70% of observable copper inventories, contributing to tightness in other markets.

Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold declined by almost 4% last week, breaking below its upward-sloping trendline and signalling a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. Additionally, the price closed below the 20 EMA, indicating further weakness. The RSI is trending lower towards the 40 mark, suggesting strong downward momentum. A sell-on-rise strategy is recommended as long as prices remain below Rs 1,48,000

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Gold around Rs 1,44,500 with a stoploss above Rs 1,48,000 and targets of Rs 1,39,000 and Rs 1,36,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,42,150

Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver fell more than 7% last week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline and reinforcing the bearish technical setup. The white metal settled below Rs 2,00,000 for the first time since Dec’25, indicating that bears remain in control. Additionally, the RSI is trading below the 40 mark, confirming strong selling pressure and sustained downward momentum. If prices fail to reclaim the Rs 2,10,000 level, they could decline towards Rs 1,70,000 in the short term.

Recommendation: We recommend selling MCX Silver around Rs 2,00,000, with a stop-loss above Rs 2,10,000 and targets of Rs 1,85,000 and Rs 1,70,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,96,100

Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil gained more than 2% last week, extending its winning streak to three consecutive weeks. The daily RSI is trading above 60, indicating strong bullish momentum. Additionally, prices are comfortably placed above the 60 level, reinforcing the bullish undertone. A strong resistance zone is placed around Rs 9,900, and a breakout above this level could trigger a further trending move on the upside.

Recommendation: We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 9,900, with a stop-loss below Rs 9,300 and targets of Rs 10,600 and Rs 11,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 9,780

Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper declined nearly 2% last week and continues to face strong resistance at Rs 1,435, which prices have repeatedly failed to breach. Despite this weakness, the broader trend remains positive, with prices maintaining a higher-highs and higher-lows formation. However, the RSI edged below 60 and is forming lower lows, indicating a potential bearish divergence and weakening momentum. Sell on rise is recommended as long as the Rs 1,420 level is intact on the upside.

Recommendation: We recommend selling MCX Copper around Rs 1,390 with a stop-loss above Rs 1,420 and targets of Rs 1,360 and Rs 1,350.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,380.

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