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Gold

Gold settled 0.9% lower at Rs. 142,024 as rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation reinforced expectations of higher-for-longer Federal Reserve interest rates, weighing on bullion. Although the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at its October 27-28 meeting, market expectations of a rate hike stand at 9% for October and 81% for December, according to CME FedWatch. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 194,000 in the week ended October 17, below expectations of 200,000, indicating continued labour market resilience. The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing production index eased to 16 in October from 20 in September, signalling a slight moderation in industrial activity. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with Indian gold purchases improving during the Dussehra festival and domestic premiums rising to $9 per ounce, compared with $7 last week. Chinese bullion premiums remained at $9-$10 per ounce, although jewellery demand continued to face pressure. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months in September, raising holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million ounces in August, despite a decline in the value of its gold reserves to $323.52 billion. Swiss gold exports increased 6% month-on-month to 165.2 tonnes, supported by strong shipments to Britain, while exports to China and India declined. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a key structural driver, although tighter monetary policy could slow near-term gains and trigger corrections. Technically, gold is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 2.54% to 16,222 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 1,285. The immediate support is placed at Rs. 141,200, followed by Rs. 140,370, while resistance is seen at Rs. 142,990 and Rs. 143,950. A break below support could extend selling pressure, whereas a sustained move above resistance may trigger a recovery.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 140370-143950.

• Gold dropped as rising oil prices fuelled higher-for-longer Federal Reserve rate expectations.

• Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 6,000 to 194,000, below market expectations.

• Gold buying picked up in India as lower prices during the major Dussehra festival boosted purchases and lifted premiums.

• Investors also await cues from a slew of central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB and BOJ next week for direction.

Silver

Silver settled 1.94% lower at Rs. 195,719 as rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation reinforced expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, weighing on the precious metal. Brent crude climbed to a more than five-month high following Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, intensifying concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at its October 27-28 meeting, with markets pricing in a 9% chance of a hike in October and over 81% in December. Investors are awaiting US PCE inflation data on October 29 for further policy cues. India has issued permits to import around 6,500 tonnes of silver over the next six months to meet festive-season demand, following earlier restrictions on silver imports. Domestic silver premiums declined to $0.45 per ounce from up to $2.50 last week, indicating easing physical market tightness. Meanwhile, the global silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial silver fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption. In contrast, coin and bar demand is projected to increase 18%, supported by a recovery in US investment demand. Global silver supply is forecast to decline 2%, while approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from inventories since 2021, highlighting persistent structural tightness despite improving London market liquidity. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September. Technically, silver is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 11.35% to 16,877 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 3,880. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 192,470, followed by Rs. 189,230, while resistance is seen at Rs. 198,640 and Rs. 201,570. A breach of support could extend the decline, whereas a sustained move above resistance may trigger a recovery.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 189230-201570.

• Silver dropped as rising oil prices strengthened expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer.

• India has issued permits to import around 6,500 metric tons of silver over the next six months.

• Hotter-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data, largely driven by rising energy costs, reinforced the case for tighter monetary policy.

• Markets currently price in just a 9% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with more than 81% for December.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 3.33% higher at Rs. 9,800 as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Saudi Aramco reportedly ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, while an oil spill was reported in the UAE and a pipeline shutdown in Libya reduced production at the Hamada and Tahara oilfields. Supply concerns remain elevated following disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli war with Iran. Supporting the bullish sentiment, US crude inventories declined by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, significantly exceeding expectations for a draw of 820,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories also fell by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks unexpectedly increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels. Refinery utilisation eased slightly to 93.4%. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but expects demand to recover in 2027 as depleted inventories are replenished and deferred consumption materialises. Saudi Arabia's crude production rebounded to 8.372 million barrels per day in September, up more than 2 million barrels per day from August, while Russia's production increased to 8.43 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency, although it remained below year-earlier levels. Russian crude exports rose to 5.3 million barrels per day, while ongoing refinery disruptions continued to constrain processing activity. Saudi crude exports also increased 7.9% month-on-month to 4.451 million barrels per day in August despite lower production. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.79% to 14,786 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs. 316. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 9,585, followed by Rs. 9,375, while resistance is seen at Rs. 9,920 and Rs. 10,040. Sustained geopolitical tensions and further supply disruptions could support an upward move, whereas easing supply risks may trigger profit booking.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9375-10040.

• Crude oil prices rose ‌after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concern over further disruption to energy supplies.

• In Libya, an oil pipeline valve from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port has been shut.

• Crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, the EIA said.

• Saudi Arabian crude oil exports in August rose by about 7.9% from July to 4.451 mbpd, the highest level ‌since March.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 4.03% lower at Rs. 292.7 as forecasts for above-average temperatures across the Midwest and eastern United States through November 5 reduced heating demand expectations. Bearish sentiment was further reinforced by rising daily production and expectations of continued storage injections, outweighing support from strong liquefied natural gas export demand and a smaller-than-expected storage build. US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, below market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet, the previous year's addition of 86 billion cubic feet, and the five-year average build of 87 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.644 trillion cubic feet, remaining 4% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. Average natural gas flows to nine major US liquefied natural gas export facilities rose to 18.2 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, providing some underlying support. However, production across the Lower 48 states averaged 111.4 billion cubic feet per day, while the US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production would increase to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Domestic consumption is also expected to rise, reaching 92.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while liquefied natural gas exports are forecast to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and supply growth exceeding demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 15.26% to 44,384 contracts alongside a price decline of Rs. 12.3. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 288, followed by Rs. 283, while resistance is seen at Rs. 300 and Rs. 307.50. A break below support could extend losses, whereas a sustained move above resistance may trigger a recovery.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 283.00-307.50.

• Natural gas fell on mild weather forecasts, an expected storage build, and an increase in daily output.

• EIA says utilities add 77 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in week ended October 16.

• Above-average temperatures are expected across the Midwest and East through November 5.

• Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities rose to 18.2 bcfd in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September.

Copper

Copper settled 1% higher at Rs. 1,382.9 as stabilising global equity markets and a slowdown in inventory accumulation improved sentiment across industrial metals. Concerns over excessive artificial intelligence investment eased after the technology-driven sell-off in global markets moderated, supporting risk appetite. Supply concerns also provided support, as London Metal Exchange copper inventories increased by only 800 tonnes in the latest session after rising around 20% over the previous week to 273,750 tonnes. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-registered warehouses declined 26.5% week-on-week, while China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to $158 per tonne, its highest level since February 2014, signalling strong import appetite and tight availability of physical metal outside the United States. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. Supply disruptions remained evident, with Chilean copper production at Escondida declining 27.6% year-on-year to 76,100 tonnes in August, while output at Collahuasi fell 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. Peru's copper production also declined 5% year-on-year to 230,676 tonnes. However, the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus projected to widen from approximately 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by expanding smelting and refining capacity. Refined copper production is forecast to rise 3.4% in 2027, while usage is expected to increase 2.5%, supported by electrification, renewable energy, urbanisation, data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September, reflecting stronger import demand. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 14.07% to 5,205 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 13.7. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 1,371.50, followed by Rs. 1,360, while resistance is seen at Rs. 1,392 and Rs. 1,401.50. A sustained move above resistance could extend the recovery, whereas a break below support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1360.00-1401.50.

• Copper prices bounced as stock markets stabilised and the build-up of inventories slowed.

• In China, inventories in warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange tumbled by 26.5%.

• The Yangshan copper premium, a closely watched gauge of appetite for imports of the metal in top consumer China, hit its highest level in more than 12 years.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.64% higher at Rs. 400.5 as tightening global refined zinc availability and declining inventories supported prices. The global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses declined 4.8% week-on-week, while falling Chinese social inventories and London Metal Exchange cash contracts trading at a premium to three-month contracts indicated tighter near-term availability. Supply concerns persisted as Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added uncertainty over potential production cuts. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, although the resumption of mining operations disrupted by accidents and safety inspections could improve concentrate availability in October, limiting further gains. The global refined zinc market recorded a cumulative surplus of 96,000 tonnes during the first eight months of 2026, down from 133,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. However, the ILZSG expects the market to move from a projected deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, as refined production increases 2% to 14.21 million tonnes and mine output rises 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is forecast to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the United States, while Chinese demand growth is expected to slow to 0.3% amid weaker real estate investment. China's net imports of refined zinc fell 79% year-on-year to 38,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity and improving self-sufficiency. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.08% to 1,365 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 6.45. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 393.50, followed by Rs. 386.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 404.50 and Rs. 408.50. A sustained move above resistance could extend gains, whereas a break below support may trigger selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 386.50-408.50.

• Zinc gains as global refined zinc market swung to a deficit of 3,900 metric tons in August from a surplus.

• Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.8% from last Friday.

• LME cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, signalling tightness in immediate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 1.44% higher at Rs. 326.45 as declining global primary production and falling inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses supported prices. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.4% year-on-year to 6.014 million tonnes in September, while Shanghai warehouse inventories fell 10.2% week-on-week. Supply concerns were partly eased as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China continued to maintain high operating rates, producing 11.84 million tonnes of primary aluminium in the third quarter, up 2.2% year-on-year. September production increased 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tonnes, while output during the first nine months rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes. Strong smelting margins and relatively low raw material costs encouraged Chinese producers to maximise output despite the longstanding capacity ceiling. Market sentiment also faced pressure from expectations of a global aluminium surplus exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2027, driven by additional Indonesian capacity and recovering supply from Gulf smelters as shipping conditions improve through the Strait of Hormuz. Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports rose 17.2% year-on-year, helping offset supply disruptions. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting improved supply availability. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports increased 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at the end of August. Although current production constraints provide support, rising Chinese output and additional global capacity could limit further gains. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 9.59% to 3,097 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs. 4.65. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 323, followed by Rs. 319.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 328.50 and Rs. 330.50. A sustained move above resistance could extend the recovery, whereas a break below support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 319.50-330.50.

• Aluminium gains as Global primary aluminium output in September fell 1.4% year on year to 6.014 million tonnes.

• Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.2% from last Friday.

• EGA has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.08% higher at Rs. 26,616, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability as holders restricted sales amid concerns over future supplies. Drought-related crop losses in Karnataka further strengthened the bullish sentiment, with an official joint survey estimating turmeric damage across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 188.24 crore, against total state cultivation of around 18,000-20,000 hectares. Concerns over deficient rainfall, El Niño-related weather risks and lower carry-forward stocks also supported prices, with industry estimates placing carryover inventories at approximately 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags last season. However, the upside remained limited by improving monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, where rainfall supported crop development and enabled re-sowing in affected areas. Despite these improvements, traders remain cautious about whether favourable weather will translate into sustained production. Although some estimates project Indian turmeric production to rise around 15% in 2026, supported by an expected 20% expansion in acreage, weather-related risks and reduced inventory buffers continue to influence market sentiment. Export trends remained mixed, with turmeric shipments declining 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes, supported by strong demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Switzerland. Stricter European Union maximum residue limits have pressured non-compliant commercial grades, while demand for Integrated Pest Management-certified turmeric continues to support compliant stocks. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices rose 1.96% to Rs. 24,705.20, indicating stronger regional market sentiment. Technically, turmeric is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.5% to 17,700 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs. 20. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 26,240, followed by Rs. 25,870, while resistance is seen at Rs. 26,890 and Rs. 27,170. A sustained move above resistance could extend gains, whereas a break below support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 25870-27170.

• Turmeric prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24705.2 Rupees gained by 1.96 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.85% lower at Rs. 26,370 due to profit booking after recent gains, as market participants assessed tightening supplies against subdued export demand and cautious domestic buying. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period, while declining arrivals at major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have highlighted tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. However, aggressive stock liquidation by farmers to generate cash for the upcoming season, rising NCDEX warehouse inventories and hand-to-mouth procurement by industrial spice grinders limited the upside. Production concerns remain significant, with domestic jeera output estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this year compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's cumin production estimates to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while output in Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan is estimated at 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. Nevertheless, expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria could weigh on Indian export premiums. Export performance remains weak, with Indian jeera shipments declining 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026. Cumulative exports during April-July fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes a year earlier, as sharply lower shipments to China outweighed strong growth in Singapore, Libya and selected smaller markets. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has also disrupted traditional trade flows, although renewed buying from European and North American customers for residue-compliant, high-quality lots offers some support. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.17% to Rs. 26,141.85. Technically, jeera is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 1.55% to 9,132 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs. 225. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 26,060, followed by Rs. 25,750, while resistance is seen at Rs. 26,620 and Rs. 26,880. A break below support could extend the decline, whereas a sustained move above resistance may signal renewed recovery.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25750-26880.

• Jeera on profit booking after prices GAINED rallied amid continued tightness with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26141.85 Rupees dropped by 0.17 percent.

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