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Gold

Gold settled 0.6% higher at Rs. 144,095, supported by a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields following the US midterm elections, while a sharp correction in crude oil prices eased inflation concerns and expectations of further interest rate hikes. The dollar slipped to a more than one-month low as Democrats secured significant electoral gains, raising expectations of a divided government and potential changes in the Trump administration's policy agenda. Citi maintained a bullish longer-term outlook, projecting gold at $4,500 per ounce over 0–3 months and $5,000 over 6–12 months, supported by expectations of Strait of Hormuz reopening and de-escalation in the Yemen-Saudi conflict. However, physical demand remains subdued, with Perth Mint's October gold sales falling 30% month-on-month to 32,933 ounces and 61% year-on-year. China's gold consumption rose 0.28% year-on-year to 684.623 tonnes during January-September 2026, supported by a 26.26% increase in bar and coin demand to 444.576 tonnes, while jewellery consumption declined 33.86% to 178.612 tonnes. China added 103.26 tonnes to its gold reserves during the first nine months, taking holdings to 2,409.59 tonnes, marking 23 consecutive months of purchases. The World Gold Council reduced its 2026 investment demand growth forecast to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, as bar and coin demand weakened 19% year-on-year, although central bank purchases increased 42% to 321 tonnes in the third quarter. India's gold demand is projected to decline to around 650 tonnes in 2026, a six-year low, amid elevated prices and rural economic weakness. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.35% to 15,716 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 861. Gold is finding support at Rs. 142,930, below which prices could test Rs. 141,760, while resistance is placed at Rs. 145,690, above which the next upside target is Rs. 147,280.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 141760-147280.

• Gold rose as the US dollar and Treasury yields weakened, while a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns.

• Citi has a 0-3 month point price target of $4,500 per ounce for gold

• China gold output down nearly 20% YoY in first three quarters of 2026

• Perth Mint's gold product sales declined nearly 30% in October from the prior month

Silver

Silver settled 0.32% lower at Rs. 187,140, as profit booking emerged following a recent rally driven by Democratic victories in the US midterm elections and hopes of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, which triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices and eased inflation concerns. However, stronger-than-expected US economic data limited downside, with initial jobless claims declining by 6,000 to 189,000 against expectations of 196,000, while nonfarm business productivity increased 3.6% in the third quarter of 2026, its strongest growth since the third quarter of 2025. Markets are pricing in a 79% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping pressure on non-yielding precious metals ahead of the US employment report. Perth Mint silver sales declined 36% month-on-month to 388,536 ounces in October, down approximately 63% year-on-year, reflecting weaker investment demand amid elevated interest rates. Meanwhile, the global silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Cumulative inventory withdrawals have reached 762 million ounces since 2021, highlighting persistent structural tightness despite improved market liquidity. Total global silver demand is expected to decline 2%, as industrial fabrication falls 3% to a four-year low, partly offset by an 18% increase in coin and bar demand. Global supply is forecast to decline 2% in 2026, further supporting the underlying supply-demand imbalance. Silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, indicating some improvement in available inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 2.58% to 16,701 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 595. Silver is finding support at Rs. 184,230, below which prices could test Rs. 181,330, while resistance is placed at Rs. 190,500, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 193,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 181330-193850.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as Democratic victories in the US midterm elections strengthened hopes for an end to the US-Iran conflict.

* Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 6,000 to 189,000, down from a revised 195,000 in the previous week.

* Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's key US employment report, which could influence expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy.

* Perth Mint's silver sales fell 36% in October from the prior month

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 2.34% higher at Rs. 8,560, supported by renewed geopolitical uncertainty as investors assessed the potential impact of US midterm election results on the future course of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Heavy Republican losses strengthened expectations that the Trump administration could face political pressure to pursue diplomatic solutions and avoid further military escalation. Comments from US Vice President JD Vance and Democratic leaders reinforced expectations of possible efforts to end the conflict. However, improving Gulf supply has shifted the global oil market back into surplus, with JPMorgan estimating a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. US crude production increased by 11,000 bpd to a record 14.003 million bpd in the week ended October 30. According to the EIA, US crude inventories declined by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, against market expectations of an increase of 877,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by a sharper 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels. Refinery utilisation increased 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%, indicating stronger refinery activity. OPEC lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand outlook on expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred consumption. Meanwhile, Russian crude production increased by 65,000 bpd in September to 8.43 million bpd, according to the IEA, although Ukrainian strikes continued to disrupt refinery operations and limit refined product supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 25.97% to 7,497 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 196. Crude oil is finding support at Rs. 8,305, below which prices could test Rs. 8,045, while resistance is placed at Rs. 8,705, and a sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 8,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8045-8850.

* Crude oil rose as investors weighed the future course of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

* Crude inventories fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 877,000-barrel rise.

* US crude production rose by 11,000 barrels per day to a record 14.003 million bpd in the week ended October 30

* JPMorgan estimates the market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 mbpd in October.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled marginally lower by 0.07% at Rs. 282.10, pressured by rising US production in recent days and forecasts for milder weather, which are expected to limit heating demand next week. According to LSEG, average US Lower 48 gas production declined to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in November so far, compared with 113.4 bcfd in October and a record 115.0 bcfd in August. Meanwhile, average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals eased to 18.1 bcfd from 18.4 bcfd in October, indicating some moderation in export demand. US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 30, below market expectations of an 81 bcf injection. Total inventories reached 3.801 trillion cubic feet, remaining 2.8% below year-ago levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. The EIA projected US dry gas production to reach record levels of 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to rise to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting longer-term demand growth. However, stronger production growth is expected to outpace consumption, keeping the supply-demand balance comfortable. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing higher Permian production and expectations that US supply will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, highlighting a bearish medium-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing 2.8% to 53,366 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 0.20. Natural gas is finding support at Rs. 278, below which prices could test Rs. 274, while resistance is placed at Rs. 285, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 288.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural Gas trading range for the day is 274.00-288.00.

* Natural gas dropped on rising output in recent days and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand than previously expected.

* Average gas output has fallen to 111.2 bcfd so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October

* Meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain warmer than normal through November 19

* Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants have slid to 18.1 bcfd so far in November, down from 18.4 bcfd in October.

Copper

Copper settled 1.24% lower at Rs. 1,351.15, as profit booking emerged following a recent rally driven by improving macroeconomic sentiment after the US midterm elections. In China, the Yangshan copper import premium surged to $205 per tonne, its highest level in 12 years, indicating stronger appetite for imported metal. However, concerns that Democratic electoral gains could constrain investment in AI infrastructure limited optimism, while elevated US inventories continued to weigh on prices. US refined copper and alloy imports declined 3.1% month-on-month to 194,284 tonnes in September but remained nearly double year-ago levels, taking imports during January-September to 1.52 million tonnes, up 17% year-on-year. COMEX copper inventories reached a record 731,428 tonnes, while LME inventories in US warehouses climbed to their highest level in more than a decade. In contrast, SHFE-monitored inventories declined more than 75% over the past six months, highlighting regional supply differences. Chile's copper commission Cochilco sharply reduced its 2026 production forecast, projecting an 8.4% decline to 4.94 million tonnes against its previous estimate of 5.27 million tonnes, while forecasting a modest 3% recovery in 2027. It also raised its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, citing constrained mine supply and production disruptions. However, the International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus expected to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by higher refined production. Global copper consumption is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by energy transition, digitalisation and data centre demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing 14.1% to 7,325 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 16.90. Copper is finding support at Rs. 1,342, below which prices could test Rs. 1,333, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,368, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,384.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1333.00-1384.50.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as investor sentiment was boosted by US midterm election results.

* In China, the Yangshan premium, returned to $205 a ton, its highest in over a decade.

* US September copper imports fall 3.1% from August

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.16% lower at Rs. 414.35, as expectations of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability raised the possibility of easing supply tightness. However, losses remained limited amid declining global mine output, record-low treatment charges and concerns over operational disruptions at major smelters, including Korea Zinc, Glencore's Kazzinc and YoungPoong's Seokpo facility. In China, declining zinc ore imports since April have tightened raw material availability, prompting smelters to reduce refined metal production. Chinese refined zinc output declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories fell 1.6% from the previous week. The LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract widened sharply to $106 per tonne from $45 previously, highlighting immediate supply tightness. China's manufacturing activity remained supportive, with the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI standing at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month of expansion. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands and elevated Western production costs added to supply concerns. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market recorded a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August, compared with a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July. However, the market is expected to shift to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027 from an anticipated deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026, supported by a 2% increase in refined production and 3% growth in mine output. Global zinc demand is forecast to increase 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, although slower Chinese demand growth amid weakness in the property sector could limit gains. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 2.41% to 1,539 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 0.65. Zinc is finding support at Rs. 411, below which prices could test Rs. 408, while resistance is placed at Rs. 418.50, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 422.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 408.00-422.50.

* Zinc dropped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

* Operational incidents at Korea Zinc, Glencore’s Kazzinc and YoungPoong’s Seokpo smelter have raised concerns about potential supply losses.

* China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, squeezing raw material supply and sending treatment charges sharply lower.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.49% higher at Rs. 329.85, supported by reports that global inventories had declined to just 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, amid resilient demand and a weaker US dollar following Democratic victories in the midterm elections. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored aluminium inventories declined 10.3% from the previous week, highlighting tightening availability. However, gains remained capped by expectations of improving global supply and a potential market surplus in 2027. Middle East aluminium production is gradually recovering, with earlier estimates of 3–3.5 million tonnes of lost output revised lower to less than 2 million tonnes. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium production remained strong, rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tonnes in September, while third-quarter output increased 2.2% to a record 11.84 million tonnes. China's primary aluminium production reached 35.03 million tonnes during January-September, up 3.8% year-on-year, as strong smelting margins encouraged producers to maintain high operating rates despite the government-imposed capacity ceiling. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined to 6.014 million tonnes in September from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued weakness in global output. However, recovering Middle East supply, resilient Chinese production and expanding Indonesian capacity could gradually ease market tightness and shift the global market into surplus next year. Jefferies also highlighted that high alumina import costs could delay the restart of some Middle East smelting capacity, potentially limiting the pace of supply recovery. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.29% to 3,970 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 1.60. Aluminium is finding support at Rs. 328, below which prices could test Rs. 325.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 332.50, and a sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 335.00.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.50-335.00.

* Aluminium gains after reports global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, as demand remained strong.

* Indonesia is expected to be a major contributor of new aluminium supply next year.

* EGA has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in Q1 2027.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply higher by 4.77% at Rs. 27,572, supported by tight pipeline supplies, lower acreage estimates for the upcoming season and concerns over adverse weather conditions in major producing regions. Total arrivals declined to around 6,000 bags, approximately 2,000 bags lower than the previous trading session, reinforcing supply concerns. Persistently dry weather in Maharashtra has raised concerns over crop development and potential yield losses, while forecast cyclonic rainfall across South India has increased uncertainty regarding crop conditions. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased some crop failure concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, supporting crop recovery prospects. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, highlighting a tighter overall availability position. Meanwhile, export demand remains mixed, with overseas buyers in Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia temporarily slowing purchases after the sharp price rally. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil increased 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, in August, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined 85% and 45%. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from the European Union continues to support compliant stocks, although stricter residue regulations have pressured non-compliant commercial grades. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window and cautious physical buying at elevated prices could limit further gains. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs. 24,954.10, down 0.11%. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 3.27% to 18,480 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 1,256. Turmeric is finding support at Rs. 26,700, below which prices could test Rs. 25,820, while resistance is placed at Rs. 28,110, and a sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 28,650.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 25820-28650.

* Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

* Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

* Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24954.1 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.97% higher at Rs. 27,470, supported by rising export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies, and concerns over the impact of El Niño on rainfall patterns and crop yields. Gujarat declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, raising concerns over water availability and sowing prospects. Market participants are closely monitoring acreage in Gujarat and Rajasthan, where inadequate soil moisture could affect planting decisions for the upcoming season. Domestic production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this year, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, including 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. Internationally, adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's production estimates to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan, farmer stock liquidation and improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria could limit further gains. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 14,532 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, while annual exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. Shipments to the USA, Singapore and Mexico increased in August, whereas exports to the UAE and Bangladesh recorded sharp declines. Despite tightening supply expectations, subdued buying at Unjha APMC and cautious procurement by processors and stockists are limiting aggressive price advances. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs. 27,181.10, gaining 0.01%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 12.37% to 5,442 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 265. Jeera is finding support at Rs. 27,270, below which prices could test Rs. 27,070, while resistance is placed at Rs. 27,740, and a sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 28,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 27070-28020.

* Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

* Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

* With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27181.1 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views