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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.65% to settle at  Rs.1,52,657, supported by easing market stress after the U.S. signaled an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, reducing immediate liquidation pressure and weakening the dollar. While the extension has improved overall risk sentiment, uncertainty still lingers over whether all parties will agree to prolonged peace talks. At the same time, comments from Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh reaffirming policy independence added to market stability. However, gains in gold were capped by strong U.S. economic data, with retail sales rising 1.7% in March, indicating resilient consumer demand and limiting safe-haven appeal. On the physical side, Swiss gold exports jumped 30% month-on-month, driven by higher shipments to the UK and China, while supplies to India declined sharply due to weak domestic demand and import-related hurdles. Indian demand remained subdued ahead of Akshaya Tritiya due to elevated prices, whereas premiums in China held relatively steady. Central bank activity continued to provide structural support, with China adding 160,000 ounces to its reserves in March, marking the 17th consecutive month of purchases. Globally, central banks remained net buyers, although some, like Turkey, trimmed holdings. Meanwhile, India’s gems and jewellery exports fell to a five-year low, reflecting weaker demand from the U.S. amid tariff pressures. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 3.78% to 8,333. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,52,000, with further downside to  Rs.1,51,350, while resistance stands at  Rs.1,53,500. A breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.1,54,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151350-154350.

* Gold rose as easing market stress reduced liquidation ‌pressure on the metal and weighed on the dollar.

* Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow for further peace talks.

* Federal Reserve chief nominee Kevin Warsh said he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates.

Silver

Silver prices gained 1.5% to settle at  Rs.2,48,364, supported by easing geopolitical stress after the U.S. extended the ceasefire with Iran. While a second round of peace talks failed to materialize, the decision to delay further military action helped stabilize market sentiment. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with Iran refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and signaling limited engagement in negotiations, keeping a degree of risk premium intact. At the same time, macro factors capped stronger upside. During his Senate hearing, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh emphasized policy independence and the need for a revised inflation framework, but offered limited clarity on rate direction. Strong U.S. retail sales data, which rose 1.7% in March, also reduced safe-haven demand by reinforcing confidence in economic resilience. On the demand side, China provided strong underlying support. Silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March—nearly three times the long-term average—driven by aggressive buying from retail investors seeking alternatives to expensive gold, along with heavy stockpiling by the solar (PV) sector ahead of tax changes. Elevated domestic premiums in China encouraged global inflows, with Hong Kong acting as a key transit hub. Meanwhile, London vault holdings rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating steady institutional positioning. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 5.51% to 5,499. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.2,46,580, with further downside to  Rs.2,44,800, while resistance stands at  Rs.2,50,420. A breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.2,52,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 244800-252480.

* Silver rose after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran

* China's March silver imports hit a record high, amid retail investors' buying frenzy and concentrated stockpiling by the PV industry.

* The silver market is heading for a sixth year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rallied 3.39% to settle at  Rs.8,723, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and fresh supply disruptions. Reports of gunfire attacks on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, along with stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations, have heightened concerns over the safety of a key global oil transit route. Iran’s stance of keeping the strait closed amid ongoing U.S. naval activity has further intensified supply risks, with potential demand disruption estimated at 4–5 million barrels per day, particularly impacting Asian markets. Supply-side pressures have also increased. Russia is expected to cut output by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day in April and halt certain exports via the Druzhba pipeline from May. Saudi Arabia’s production dropped sharply to its lowest level since 2020 due to conflict-related disruptions. While U.S. production showed a modest rise, inventory data presented a mixed picture—crude stocks increased by 1.9 million barrels, but gasoline and distillate inventories posted larger-than-expected declines, indicating steady end-user demand. China’s import trends remained robust, with higher inflows from Russia and Brazil, even as shipments from Saudi Arabia declined significantly. Meanwhile, OPEC slightly lowered its global demand forecast for the second quarter, citing temporary weakness linked to geopolitical uncertainty, though it expects demand recovery in the latter half of the year. Technically, the market reflects fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.78% to 12,265. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.8,372, with further downside at  Rs.8,021. Resistance is placed at  Rs.8,942, and a breakout above this level could drive prices toward  Rs.9,161.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8021-9161.

* Crude oil prices rose after reports of gunfire ‌attacks on at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

* Iran has said it will not reopen the strait while US naval interceptions continue.

* Russia has been forced to reduce oil output in April by nearly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 1.23% to settle at  Rs.255.4, supported by a noticeable drop in production and strong flows to LNG export terminals. Output in the U.S. has fallen by around 3.9 bcfd over the past two weeks, touching an 11-week low of 108.2 bcfd. At the same time, LNG exports have remained robust, averaging 18.9 bcfd in April and putting the market on track for a record month, which has helped underpin prices. However, the upside remains somewhat capped due to comfortable inventory levels. Mild spring weather has reduced heating demand, allowing for larger-than-normal storage injections. The latest data showed a build of 59 bcf, exceeding market expectations and well above both last year’s levels and the five-year average. As a result, total inventories are now running about 7% above the seasonal norm. Weather forecasts pointing to warmer conditions across the U.S. Midwest are also expected to further dampen near-term demand from both residential and power sectors. Looking ahead, the broader outlook remains mixed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record production levels in the coming years, with output rising steadily through 2027. At the same time, domestic demand is expected to dip slightly in 2026 before recovering, while LNG exports continue to grow and provide structural support. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 20.08% to 19,079. Support is placed at  Rs.253.2, with further downside at  Rs.250.9, while resistance is seen at  Rs.258.3. A break above this level could push prices toward  Rs.261.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 250.9-261.1.

* Natural gas rose supported by recent production declines and near-record flows to LNG export facilities.

* Average output has dropped by roughly 3.9 bcfd over the past 15 days, reaching an eleven-week low of 108.2 bcfd on Tuesday.

* Mild spring weather has allowed for strong storage injections, leaving stockpiles about 7% above the five-year average as of April 17.

Copper

Copper prices rose by 1.43% to settle at  Rs.1,283.1, supported by strong restocking demand in China ahead of the May 1–5 Labor Day holidays. Market sentiment was further boosted by data showing Chinese smelters produced a record 1.33 million tonnes of refined copper in March, driven by improved margins from higher byproduct sulfuric acid prices. However, output is expected to ease in the coming months due to seasonal maintenance, particularly in May. Global supply dynamics remain mixed. Rio Tinto reported a 9% increase in Q1 production, supported by higher output from the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Meanwhile, production trends across key regions showed divergence—Peru posted modest growth, while Chile’s Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine reported declines. Collahuasi, however, saw a sharp increase in output. On the inventory front, Shanghai exchange stocks dropped significantly and are down nearly 45% since mid-March, indicating tightening domestic availability. In contrast, Comex inventories have climbed close to record highs, reflecting strong inflows driven by favorable arbitrage opportunities. Demand signals from China remain somewhat mixed, with imports declining on both a monthly and quarterly basis, even as domestic production rises. Globally, the refined copper market surplus narrowed sharply to 17,000 tonnes in January, suggesting improving balance. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 11.83% to 6,891. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,273.7, with further downside at  Rs.1,264.3, while resistance is placed at  Rs.1,288.6. A breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.1,294.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1264.3-1294.1.

* Copper gained as restocking activity in China picked up ahead of the Labor Day holiday from May 1 to 5.

* Chinese smelters produced a record volume of refined copper in March, as elevated prices for byproduct sulfuric acid boosted output.

*- Copper output is expected to ease in April and the following month due to seasonal maintenance at smelters.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 1.75% to settle at  Rs.349.45, supported by improving sentiment around U.S.-Iran ceasefire developments after the announcement of an indefinite extension. This eased immediate geopolitical concerns while still keeping a risk premium in place. Additional support came from tightening supply conditions, with LME inventories dropping to a one-month low and declining treatment charges prompting short covering in the market. Fundamentally, the market continues to reflect near-term tightness. Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been trending lower overall, indicating reduced physical availability, while mine closures and operational disruptions have further constrained supply. At the same time, improving industrial activity in China, with factory data returning to expansion, has strengthened demand expectations. China’s central bank maintaining an accommodative stance and rising factory-gate prices also point to underlying industrial resilience. However, some pressure remains from broader macro concerns, particularly the potential economic impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the supply side, the restart of key mines such as Tara and the ramp-up of Kipushi are expected to keep the global zinc market in a modest surplus this year. Data also shows the market shifted into a small surplus in January, although significantly lower than the previous month’s surplus. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2.35% to 2,077. Support is seen at  Rs.345.1, with further downside at  Rs.340.6, while resistance stands at  Rs.352.1. A move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.354.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 340.6-354.6.

* Zinc gains amid cautious optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks after President Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire.

* Support seen after LME zinc inventory fell to 107,525 mt, hitting a one-month low.

* Against the backdrop of continued declines in zinc concentrate TCs, bears exited the market, driving a rapid rally in zinc prices.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices jumped 2.19% to settle at  Rs.373.3, driven by escalating supply concerns linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has raised serious fears of prolonged disruption, especially after reported damage to key refineries in the UAE and Bahrain. With Iran unwilling to reopen the route amid ongoing tensions, the market is increasingly factoring in a significant supply shock. Fundamentally, conditions remain tight. LME inventories have continued to decline, while stocks at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4%, reflecting reduced availability. Physical market premiums have surged, with Japanese buyers agreeing to the highest premiums in over a decade. Analysts expect the supply disruption to deepen further, with forecasts pointing to a sizable global deficit in 2026 due to reduced Middle East output. Production in the Gulf region has already fallen by around 6% month-on-month, underlining the immediate impact of the conflict. On the demand side, China remains supportive. Imports rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while domestic production also increased, signaling stable consumption despite higher prices. However, global output trends are mixed, with a slight increase in total production but a dip in daily run rates. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 12.11% to 1,757. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.368.1, with further downside to  Rs.362.7. Resistance stands at  Rs.376.9, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.380.3, indicating continued bullish momentum in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 362.7-380.3.

* Aluminium rallied as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply.

* The global aluminium market is already experiencing a "black swan" supply shock due to disruptions stemming from the war

* LME aluminium inventory continued to decline, with the latest level at 393,800 mt, reinforcing supply concerns.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped slightly by 0.32% to settle at  Rs.16,114, mainly due to increased selling by farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra as they prepare for the upcoming Kharif season. Profit booking by stockists who accumulated inventory at lower levels in March also added pressure. That said, the downside remains limited. Arrivals across key mandis have been lower than usual for this time of year, creating a near-term supply tightness. Quality concerns, particularly moisture-related issues like rhizome rot, have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” turmeric. In major markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers are holding back stocks, expecting prices to move toward  Rs.18,000. High-quality “Salem Fali” continues to command strong premiums, touching up to  Rs.20,000 per quintal. Fundamentally, lower carry-forward stocks—estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh last year—are tightening overall availability. Export demand remains steady despite some short-term fluctuations, while reduced imports signal lower reliance on overseas supply. Weather concerns, including rising temperatures and early monsoon uncertainty, are also adding a risk premium to prices. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest slightly higher at 18,020. Support is seen at  Rs.15,986, with further downside to  Rs.15,858, while resistance stands at  Rs.16,266. A breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.16,418.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15858-16418.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased offloading of stock by farmers to secure funds for the upcoming Kharif season.

* Large stockists and traders who bought at lower levels in March have engaged in profit-booking, adding supply-side pressure.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15911.35 Rupees gained by 0.13 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.97% to settle at  Rs.21,165, as steady arrivals of around 28,500 bags in Unjha kept a lid on prices despite underlying supply concerns. Some selling pressure also came from weak export performance and cautious buying in the spot market. That said, the overall fundamentals remain supportive. Arrivals are still lower on a year-on-year basis, pointing to tighter availability. Weather disruptions have played a major role this season—intense heat in Gujarat has affected grain quality, while hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged crops at the harvest stage. Unseasonal rains in North-West India also delayed drying and processing, creating short-term supply gaps. Additionally, the availability of premium “Sortex” quality carryover stock is lower than last year, which is helping maintain higher prices for better grades. Production estimates have also come down significantly, with total output seen at around 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year. Lower acreage and yield losses, along with disease outbreaks, have further impacted supply. While export demand has been weak, expectations of fresh buying from China are providing some optimism. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising slightly by 0.76% to 9,885. Support is seen at  Rs.20,950, with further downside to  Rs.20,720, while resistance stands at  Rs.21,530. A move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.21,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20720-21880.

* Jeera prices fell as steady Unjha arrivals near 28,500 bags capped upside potential

* Intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final maturation stage have resulted in shriveled grains, reducing the supply of bold-grade Jeera.

* Outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21548.95 Rupees gained by 0.25 percent.

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