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Market Update

Nifty : 22,119.30 -5.40 (-0.02%)

Sensex : 73,085.94 -112.16 (-0.15%)

*  The equity benchmarks, Nifty and Sensex, closed with little change after recovering from the day's lows, driven by buying interest in IT and realty stocks. However, this was offset by significant declines in heavyweight stocks like Reliance, HDFC Bank, the Bajaj twins, Coal India, and Maruti.

*  Despite opening in the green, both indices quickly turned negative, with a half-percent drop by midday. A strong rebound in metals, realty, and IT stocks in the latter half of the session helped the recovery, although oil & gas and financial services stocks remained under pressure. The mid-cap and small-cap indices also bounced back into positive territory, supported by bargain hunting following heavy selling in recent sessions.

*  Nifty closed with a marginal decline of 0.02% at 22,120, and Sensex dropped 0.08% to 73,139 compared to Friday's close. The broader market ended mixed, with both the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices gaining 0.2% each. The Nifty 500's advance-decline ratio stood at 1:1, reflecting a shift in momentum toward mid- and small-cap stocks.

*  Sentiment was boosted by the government's revised FY25 GDP growth forecast of 6.5%, up from 6.4%, and a 9% YoY rise in February’s GST collections, surpassing Rs 1.8 lakh crore.

*  Additionally, positive momentum from US and Asian markets, driven by expectations of reduced US interest rates after weaker-than-expected U.S. Personal Consumption data, contributed to the optimism.

*  The Nifty Metal Index rose by nearly 1%, spurred by reports of a stimulus plan from China’s Xi Jinping in response to US tariff threats. Stocks like Vedanta, Jindal Steel, and JSW Steel gained between 1-3%, while National Aluminum and SAIL also recovered from their intra-day lows.

Technical Outlook:

*  Nifty Index opened on a positive note but bears quickly took control, dragging the index lower to test the 22000 zone. Selling pressure continued in the market until midday with the index finding support at the psychological level of 22000 mark.

*  From there, Nifty witnessed a sharp rebound of over 100 points providing temporary relief to the bulls. However, momentum is still missing at higher levels which indicates sell on bounce may continue. It formed bearish candle on daily chart and started to form lower lows. Now till it holds below 22250 zones, weakness could be seen towards 22000 then 21800 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 22250 then 22400 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

*  Nifty future closed negative with losses of 0.06% at 22267 levels. Positive setup seen in BEL, Voltas, VEDL, Cummins India, TVS Motors, Solar Industries, Grasim, Jsw steel, Lupin and Ind Hotels while weakness in BSE, MCX, IGL, Jio Financial Services, IIFL Finance, Coal India, Bajaj Auto, Angel One, RBL Bank, AB Capital, Ashok Leyland and Asian Paints.

*  On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 22500 then 23000 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22000 then 21500 strike. Call writing is seen at 22400 then 22200 strike while Put writing is seen at 21900 then 22000 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21700 to 22700 zones while an immediate range between 21900 to 22400 levels.

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