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Market Update

Nifty : 25,019.80 -42.30 (-0.17%)

Sensex : 82,330.59 -200.15 (-0.24%)

* Equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, ended slightly lower today due to profit booking, although the broader market saw a strong rally as traders shifted focus from large-cap stocks to mid-cap and small-cap stocks. Defense stocks saw substantial gains, with the Nifty Defense Index surging over 5% to hit a record high.

* Additionally, sectors such as Rail, PSU, and exchange-related stocks also witnessed strong rallies. Nifty closed down by 42 points, or 0.20%, settling just above the 25,000 mark at 25,019, while Sensex dropped 200 points, or 0.20%, to end at 82,330. Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Infosys, Wipro, Hindalco, and TCS contributed to the Nifty’s decline.

* Despite the slight dip, both indices wrapped up the week with healthy gains of over 4%. The broader markets performed even better, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 7.20% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 soaring by 9%.

* Positive sentiment in the market was fueled by strong foreign institutional investor (FII) buying, optimism about a potential U.S.-India trade deal, strong Q4 earnings, multi-year low inflation, and easing geopolitical tensions, all contributing to a positive market outlook.

* The government’s plan to add Rs 50,000 crore to the defense budget under Operation Sindoor further supported the rally in defense stocks. Paras Defense surged 18% to close at Rs 1799, followed by GRSE, Mazagon Dock, Cochin Shipyard, and Data Patterns, which gained between 7-12%.

* On the global front, the U.S. market gained nearly 1% overnight, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and mixed economic data. European markets also advanced after a mixed session in Asia, with limited news driving trading. Markets have calmed after the turmoil caused by President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs strategy, aimed at encouraging companies to manufacture in the U.S.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty Index Nifty opened on a flattish note and traded sideways for most part of the session. The index moved within a narrow range of 70–80 points, following the strong rally in the previous trading session. Market momentum was notably missing today, as participants largely remained on the sidelines.

* The positive takeaway is that Nifty continues to hold firm above the 25000 mark, reflecting underlying strength. Over the week, the index has rallied more than 1000 points, marking its highest weekly close in recent weeks.

* On the technical front, Nifty has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. However, on the daily chart, it formed a small-bodied candle, indicating a pause after the recent sharp up move. Now it has to hold above 24900 zones for an up move towards 25200 then 25400 levels while on the downside support is seen at 24850 then 24700 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed positive with gains of 0.01% at 25081 levels. Positive setup seen in Titaghar Rail System, Angel One, Crompton, CDSL, IRFC, SJVN, Concor, HAL, HUDCO, MCX, NBCC, Tube investment, BEL and IREDA while weakness in Bharti Airtel, NCC, L&T Finance, Jubilant Foodworks, PB Fintech, Delhivery, JSW Steel, HFCL, Voltas, ICICI Lombard and VBL.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25500 then 25100 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 25000 then 24500 strike. Call writing is seen at 25500 then 25000 strike while Put writing is seen at 25000 then 24700 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 24500 to 25500 zones while an immediate range between 24850 to 25250 levels.

Global Market Update

* European Market - European shares advanced after a mixed session in Asia on Friday, with scant news driving trading. Markets have calmed somewhat after the turmoil unleashed by Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs offensive, aimed at compelling companies to base manufacturing inside the United States. Germany, UK and France Index gained by 0.5% each.

* Asian Market - Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as the rally sparked by US-China trade talks continued to cool and earnings from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba underwhelmed.

* US Data - Housing starts, Building Permit.

* Commodity - Crude oil prices edged lower this week amid the prospect of an oversupplied market and a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. Brent Crude slipped 1% to $64/bbl.

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