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Key Highlights

* Nifty50 makes new high while broader market under pressure

* India’s Q2 real GDP growth surges 8.2%

* Key Events: Policy meet of US Fed and RBI

Indian benchmark indices maintained their up-move for the 3rd consecutive month with Nifty50 making a fresh high of 26,310. This was on the back of improving corporate earnings, optimism around potential India-US trade deal and increasing probability of rate cut by both RBI and US Fed in their upcoming monetary policy meets. Nifty50 gained 481 points (+1.9%) MoM to close at 26,203.

The Nifty Midcap 100 (+2% MoM) performed in line with large caps, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 (-3% MoM) underperformed in Nov’25. Macros remain supportive, with India’s Q2 real GDP growing at 8.2%, marking one of the strongest quarterly performances in recent years, underscoring resilient consumption and broad-based economic strength.

Retail inflation eased sharply to 0.25% in October, well below the RBI’s comfort range, aided by GST rationalisation and moderating food prices. The sharper-than-expected decline strengthened expectations of potential policy easing in the months ahead.

DII inflows remain strong in Nov’25 at Rs77,084cr in Nov’25, marking their 28th consecutive month of inflows. The FIIs remained net sellers of Rs17,500cr. INR/USD crossed past the 90-mark making a fresh all-time low, pressured by sustained foreign outflows and delay in India-US trade deal.

The 2QFY26 earnings season that concluded last month was marked by better traction in earnings.

The aggregate earnings of the MOFSL Universe companies grew 12% YoY (vs. our est. of 9% YoY) – this marked the strongest earnings performance in five quarters. Better-than-expected growth was distributed across large-caps (+10% YoY) and mid-caps (+33% YoY), while small-caps were underwhelming (-5% YoY).

After nearly 14 months of consolidation, the Nifty 50 has made a new high, supported by broadbased strength in large caps and improving sentiments. This has been supported by expectations of rate cuts from both RBI and US Fed - a shift that improves visibility for interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Alongside this, early signs of an earnings recovery from Q3 — supported by GST rationalisation and improving demand— are improving confidence in the earnings cycle.

Overall, we maintain our positive view on Indian equities. Our analysis of MOFSL coverage companies, suggests a 15% YoY growth in earnings in 2HFY26 after ~11% YoY growth in 1HFY26. Sectorally, we turn marginally positive on Indian IT services companies, while remaining positive on Diversified Financials, Automobiles, Telecom, and Capital Goods.

Technical & Derivatives Outlook

* Nifty index continued the bullish momentum from the previous month and the index embarked on a new life time high of 26310 zones. The journey showcased buyers' resilience with action further exemplifying in the second half of the month. It retested psychological barriers and gave the highest ever close above 26k marks on the monthly frame. The recovery was backed by broad sectoral participation and an overall improvement in the market sentiment.

* Technically, Nifty formed a bullish candle on the monthly chart and has been making higher highs – higher lows from the last three months. Now the index needs follow up buying to decisively hold at the life time high zones. For December series, positional supports are seen at 26000 and then 25700 zones, while on the up side move could be seen towards 26500 then 26700 zones

Derivative Strategy

Nifty

* Nifty posted a strong two-month rally and hit fresh lifetime highs in the last week of November.

* It has formed a bullish candle on the monthly chart and continues to hold gains in record territory, maintaining its higher-top higher-bottom structure.

* Maximum Put OI is inching up and is now placed at the 26000 strike, while Call OI remains concentrated near the 27000 zone.

* This setup suggests deploying a Bull Call Butterfly Spread to capitalize on the ongoing upside momentum along with a likely decline in volatility

BUY 1 LOT OF 26100 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 26400 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 26400 CALL

BUY 1 LOT OF 26700 CALL

Margin Required : Rs.80,000

Net Premium Paid : 50 Points (Rs.3750)

Max Risk : 50 Points (Rs.3750)

Max Profit: 250 Points (Rs.18750)

Lot size : 75 Profit if it remains in between 26150 to 26650 zones

Bank Nifty

* Bank Nifty index is in strong uptrend and gave range breakout on monthly scale with strong bullish candle.

* Index is forming higher low structure on weekly scale as bigger trend is positive with overall buy on dips stance.

* Maximum Put OI is intact at 59000 then 59500 levels while Call OI is at 60000 then 61000 strike.

* Thus suggesting Bull Call Butterfly Spread to play the upside momentum with decline in volatility.

BUY 1 LOT OF 60000 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 60600 CALL

SELL 1 LOT OF 60600 CALL

BUY 1 LOT OF 61200 CALL

Margin Required : Rs.85,000

Net Premium Paid : 80 Points (Rs.2800)

Max Risk : 80 Points (Rs.2800)

Max Profit: 520 Points (Rs.18200)

Lot size : 35 Profit if it remains in between 60080 to 61120 zones

Commodities & Currency Outlook

* Silver rallied through November, supported by supply tightness, Rupee weakness and bets over a rate cut in December.

* The Comex outage shifted silver price discovery to the physical market, causing a spike, as 75 million ounces moved into CME vaults since October for stockpiling and hedging, tightening available supply.

* For 2025, silver market deficit is expected to reach 95 Moz, marking the fifth consecutive annual deficit.

* Industrial sectors like solar, AI/data centres, and EVs are still growing, but they’re using less silver per unit, so total industrial silver demand is expected to slip 2% in 2025.

* Jewellery, silverware, and bar/coin demand are also down 4–11% this year due to high prices and weak US buying, though Indian purchase remains strong.

* Mine production remains flat at 813 Moz, with no major new projects coming online. Since 70% of silver is as a by-product of base-metal mining, supply can’t easily increase.

* The gold–silver ratio fell from 100+ to 75, still above the long-term average of 70, signaling upside potential and growing investor confidence.

* Near-term outlook remains bullish but volatile, as supply deficits, strong demand, tight inventories, high lease rates, and robust ETF inflows support a higher price floor.

* In the near term, silver traders should watch the Dec 9–10 FOMC meeting, US inflation prints, dollar/yield moves, China’s export trends, CME vault flows, and ETF demand all of which will decide whether silver’s tight-supply rally extends or cools.

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