Moong Report as On 25th May 2026 by Amit Gupta- Kedia Advisory
Moong
* Moong prices surged over 8% weekly amid tightening supplies and concerns regarding lower crop availability.
* Moong sowing remained nearly 2% below three-year average levels as of May 18, 2026.
* Aggressive government procurement plans strengthened market sentiment and established stronger support for prevailing moong prices.
* Government increased moong MSP to ?8,780 per quintal for the 2026-27 marketing season significantly.
* Government’s 30% import duty on yellow peas continued supporting domestic moong demand sentiment strongly.
* March weather damage affected 195,000 hectares, marking highest moong crop losses in five years significantly.
* Moong exports surged 792% during April-March 2026, reflecting exceptionally strong overseas demand conditions globally.
* Rainfall across Maharashtra and Rajasthan damaged standing moong crops ready for immediate harvesting operations recently.
* Moong prices declined over 6% monthly amid seasonal glut from fresh arrivals in mandis.
* Moong arrivals during January-May 2026 increased over 120% compared with previous corresponding period significantly.
* Stable pulse inflows from Myanmar reduced concerns regarding immediate supply disruptions in domestic markets considerably.
* Large stockists increased selling pressure by liquidating older rabi inventories before fresh summer arrivals significantly.
* Government estimates projected moong production sharply lower during 2025-26 crop year amid adverse weather conditions.
* Below-normal monsoon forecasts threatened upcoming moong crop prospects and strengthened bullish market expectations considerably.
* Rising temperatures across northern regions affected pod-filling stages, reducing summer moong yield expectations substantially.
* Local stockists reportedly withheld supplies anticipating stronger prices before arrival of southwest monsoon period significantly.
* Government buffer stocks and expanding pulse production may limit excessive upside in moong prices ahead.
India Monsoon Seen Below Normal Amid El Nino Risk
* IMD forecasts monsoon at 92% of long period average
* Rainfall classified as below normal with ±5% model error
* 35% probability of deficient rainfall below 90% LPA
* Core monsoon regions likely to receive weaker rainfall
* Risks to kharif sowing irrigation and overall crop output
India’s southwest monsoon for June to September 2026 is projected at 92% of the long period average of 87 cm, placing it in the below normal category. The forecast includes a ±5% margin, with a 31% chance of below normal rains and a higher 35% probability of deficient rainfall below 90% LPA. Elevated El Nino risks are expected to suppress rainfall, particularly across central and western regions. This may impact irrigation levels and reduce kharif and rabi acreage, posing downside risks to agricultural output and rural demand.
