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NIFTY HIGHLIGHTS

Nifty’s September 74.3% rollover fell below the prior 77.4%, three-month 76.5%, and six-month 74.8% averages, indicating cautious broader market positioning. Reflecting bullish interest, Bank Nifty’s 79.3% rollover surpassed the previous 79.2%, three-month 77.6%, and six-month 78.8% averages. Suggesting guarded optimism, market wide rollover dipped to 94.13% from 95.12%, landing below the 94.3% quarterly average but exceeding the 94.1% six-month baseline. Highlighting short buildups, October Nifty futures started with 191.3 lakh shares, adding 43.9 lakhs over the prior 147.5 lakhs, alongside a 6.7% price contraction. Bank Nifty futures opened with 24.2 lakh shares, adding 3.3 lakhs to the previous 20.9 lakhs, despite a 5.7% valuation decline. Reflecting long exposure demand, Nifty's rollover cost edged up to 0.78% from 0.76%, while Bank Nifty's premium surged steeply to 1.10% from 0.59%. Current options data suggest, the October derivatives series is expected to remain within a 22,000–24,000 trading range. Significant Call concentration introduces stiff upside resistance from 23,500 to 24,000, which is offset by robust Put writing anchoring a strict floor in the 22,500–22,000 zone. Notably, elevated two-way open interest firmly positions the 23,500 strike as the primary directional pivot dictating momentum.

Stock & Sector Highlights

- MCX, SONACOMS, BAJAJHLDNG, JUBLFOOD and LICI saw higher rollover on Tuesday compared to same day of previous expiry.

- NAM-INDIA, POLYCAB, CIPLA, SWIGGY and VEDL saw lower rollover on Tuesday compared to same day of previous expiry.

- The FII Index Futures Long ratio was at 0.09 relative to the last expiry, underscoring a persistently defensive positioning among foreign investors.

- FIIs added 4,022 index long positions while adding 87,102 shorts. This broad-based addition in exposure signals increasing risk appetite and a cautious stance, as participants prefer to preserve flexibility and await stronger positive cues before rebuilding meaningful long positions amid persistent market volatility.

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