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Nifty

September expiry highlighted a clear deterioration in Nifty technical structure, with 23000 eventually giving way despite earlier OI support. The index remained under sustained pressure, making September one of the weakest monthly series in recent years. Yesterday’s expiry session again witnessed unusually sharp intraday swings, with Nifty touching a low near 22570 during regular trading before recovering to close at 22716 culminating into a 'Bullish Spike' candlestick formation. The extreme movement around the closing auction further underlined the heightened risk associated with expiryday positioning and rollovers. Options data saw the weekly Put-Call Ratio rebounded from oversold levels, rising from 0.70 to 0.99 ahead of Thursday’s SENSEX weekly expiry, while Nifty option sellers established an aggressive Call-writing ceiling around 23000. Going into the October series, the 22600– 23000 zone will be crucial in assessing whether Nifty is forming a fresh base or entering another leg of weakness also supported with the progressing Price-RSI divergence. The immediate focus remains on whether the index can reclaim and sustain above 22850–23000. On the downside, 22600 remains the immediate reference, followed by 22400. October has historically witnessed significant two-way swings, while the 10-year seasonal record remains broadly constructive, with Nifty delivering positive returns in 8 of the last 10 occasions.

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