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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

*Spot gold is expected to surpass the stiff resistance of $2385 level and rise further towards $2700 level amid softening of global bond yields. Yields are moving south on expectations that major central banks would further ease monetary policy. Recent import price index indicated benign inflation outlook which may keep Fed on course of cutting rates. Additionally, soft inflation data in UK reinforced bets on BOE rate cut in November and made further cut in December more likely. Investors will closely watch ECB meeting, where central bank is mostly likely to reduce rate by 25bps but more focus will be on statement from President Christine Lagarde to get more clarity on future rate path. Additionally, traders will keep an eye on slew of economic data from US to gauge the Fed timeline on a potential interest rate reduction. MCX Gold December is expected to rise towards 77,000 level as long as it trades above 76,350 level. A break above 77,000 prices may rally towards 77,500 level

*MCX Silver December is expected to rise towards 93,500 level as long as it trades above 91,200 level.

Base Metal Outlook

*Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid rise in risk appetite in the global markets following expectation of further easing in monetary policy across major economies. Additionally, investors will keep an close eye on China’s housing minister briefing as it would provide further details of measures to support sagging property sector. Moreover, as per media report China may raise 6 trillion yuan from ultra long special government bonds over 3 years to boost economic growth.

* MCX Copper October is expected to rise further towards 830 level as long as it stays above 813 level. A break above 830 prices would rise further towards 835 level.

* MCX Aluminum is expected to move north towards 240 level as long as it stays above 236 level.

Energy Outlook

*NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise back towards $72 level on optimistic global market sentiments and unexpected drop in Crude oil inventories. As per API figures Crude stocks fell by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended October 11. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.93 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.67 million barrels. Additionally, prices may recover on expectation that major central banks may cut interest rates further to boost economic growth. Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Moreover, investors will keep an close eye on crude oil inventory data from EIA. Investors are also waiting for further details from China on its broad plans announced previous week to revive its ailing economy.

*MCX Crude oil Nov is likely to recover back towards 6050 level as long as it stays above 5800 level.

*MCX Natural gas October is expected to slip further towards 195 level as long as it stays below 207 level.

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