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Bullion Outlook

Gold

* Spot gold is likely to face stiff resistance near $2700 level amid strong dollar and surge in US treasury yields following strong job data. Additionally, series of economic data from US signaled resilience in the economy, reinforcing expectations among investors that US Federal Reserve will hit a pause button to its rate cutting cycle from January meeting and will not see rate cut sooner than June. Additionally, market is pricing in now just 1 rate cut in 2025 compared to 2 rate cuts.

* Spot gold is likely to face stiff resistance near $2700 level and slip back towards $2650 level which is also 20-day EMA. MCX Gold February is expected face resistance near 78,800 level and correct back towards 77,700 level

* Spot Silver is likely to slip back towards $30 level which is also 50-Day EMA as long as it trades below $30.65 level. MCX Silver March is expected to slip towards 91,000 level as long as it trades below 93,300 level

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias on strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Market sentiments are hurt as stronger than expected jobs data from US fueled the expectations that Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer period, higher borrowing cost likely to hurt economic recovery. Additionally, investors fear that potential Donald Trump 2.0 tariffs will hurt global trade and even lead to manufacturing slowdown.

* MCX Copper January is expected to face stiff resistance near 832 level and correct back towards 818 level. A break below 818 level copper prices may slip further towards 810 level

* MCX Aluminum Jan is expected to move south towards 243 level as long as it stays below 247 level. MCX Zinc Jan is likely to slip back towards 270 level as long as it stays below 276 level

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to continue its rally and rise further towards $79 level as severely cold weather in US and Europe will push demand for oil. Further, prices may rally on concerns that wider US sanctions on Russia will hurt oil exports severely, forcing China and India to source more oil from other regions. President Joe Biden's administration imposed fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders and ports. Meanwhile, strong dollar and weak global market sentiments may cap sharp upside in prices.

* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to rise back towards $79 level as long as its stays above $76.0 level. MCX Crude oil is likely to rise further towards 6750 level as long as it stays above 6450 level.

* MCX Natural gas Jan is expected to rise further towards 355 level as long as it stays above 330 level. A break above 355 level it may further rise towards 362 level.

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