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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.22% to settle at Rs 85,833 due to profit booking, despite ongoing support from a weaker U.S. dollar and heightened safe-haven demand. The implementation of U.S. tariffs, including a 25% levy on Mexican and Canadian imports and a 20% duty hike on Chinese goods, escalated trade tensions, though there were indications of potential tariff relief for Canada and Mexico. Weak economic data added to concerns, with ADP reporting only 77,000 private sector job additions in the U.S., the lowest since July and well below expectations of 140,000. This, along with rising unemployment claims, fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could implement rate cuts in June and September, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. India’s gold demand showed some improvement in the latter half of the month but remained below normal levels as prices retreated from record highs. Discounts offered by Indian dealers narrowed to $12-$27 per ounce from the previous week's $35. However, gold imports in February are expected to plunge 85% year-on-year, marking a 20-year low. In China, gold traded at par to a $3 discount, while in other major hubs like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan, mixed discounts and premiums were observed. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.63% to 14,560 contracts while prices declined by Rs 193. Key support is seen at Rs 85,410, with further downside potential to Rs 84,985. Resistance is now at Rs 86,250, and a breakout above could push prices towards Rs 86,665.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 84985-86665.
* Gold dropped on profit booking after seen supported by a weaker US dollar and amid the implementation of US tariffs.
* Data from the ADP showed that 77,000 job were added to the US private sector, the least since July.
* US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested possible tariff relief for Canada and Mexico.

Silver

Silver prices surged by 1.34% to settle at Rs 97,542, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong safe-haven demand amid escalating global trade conflicts. The imposition of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump fueled uncertainty, while falling U.S. Treasury yields further supported silver. The 10-year yield declined toward 4.2% as weak economic data, including ADP’s report showing only 77,000 new private-sector jobs—far below the expected 140,000—raised concerns about the labor market. Despite the price surge, silver inventories at Comex (New York) reached a record high of 403.2 million ounces as of February 27, reflecting strong supply. Hecla Mining, the largest U.S. silver producer, reported a 13% production increase, mining 16.2 million ounces in 2024—its second-highest output in 134 years. However, demand showed signs of weakness, with U.S. silver coin purchases dropping 27% year-over-year in January to 3.5 million ounces, marking the lowest January demand since 2018. Looking ahead, the silver market is expected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with total supply projected to rise 3% to an 11-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, driven by increased mining and recycling. Industrial demand, particularly from green energy applications, is set to grow by 3%, while investment demand is also expected to rise.  Technically, silver is in fresh buying territory, with open interest rising by 2.35% to 19,644 contracts as prices increased by Rs 1,286. Support is at Rs 96,670, with further downside potential to Rs 95,795. On the upside, resistance is at Rs 98,130, and a breakout above could push prices towards Rs 98,715.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 95795-98715.
* Silver gains driven by a weaker dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid escalating trade conflicts.
* The yield on the 10-year US note fell toward the 4.2%, as pessimistic economic data magnified concerns of an escalating trade war.
* Silver inventories at Comex (New York) have risen to a record high as the metal pushes prices month-over-month.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 3.42% to settle at Rs 5,756 amid growing concerns over rising supply and trade policy uncertainties. OPEC+ announced a production increase of 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, marking the first output hike since 2022. Additionally, speculation over potential tariff reductions on Mexico and Canada by the Trump administration could alter crude oil trade flows, further adding to market volatility. Oil prices have been under pressure since mid-January, driven by fears that trade policies could dampen global demand. Meanwhile, China’s 2025 growth target of around 5% has fueled expectations of further economic stimulus, which could provide some support to oil demand. On the inventory front, U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped by 1.455 million barrels for the week ending February 28, marking the second consecutive weekly decline. However, EIA data showed an unexpected inventory build of 3.614 million barrels, significantly above market expectations of a 0.9 million-barrel increase. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, also rose by 1.124 million barrels, extending a previous increase. In contrast, gasoline and distillate stocks declined more than anticipated, falling by 1.433 million and 1.318 million barrels, respectively. Technically, crude oil remains under selling pressure, with open interest surging by 44.78% to settle at 9,285 contracts, indicating fresh short positions. The commodity has support at Rs 5,646, and a breakdown below this level could test Rs 5,535. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 5,907, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs 6,057.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5535-6057.
* Crude oil fell as concerns grew over rising supply and trade policy uncertainty.
* OPEC+ announced it will increase oil output by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, the first production hike since 2022.
* US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Trump administration may ease tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a decision expected soon.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged lower by 0.15% to settle at Rs 386.7, as near-record production and weaker demand forecasts for next week exerted downward pressure. However, losses were limited by record LNG export flows and expectations of higher demand this week. Additionally, concerns over potential disruptions in Canadian gas exports to the U.S. due to newly implemented tariffs on Canada and Mexico provided some support. Production in the Lower 48 U.S. states increased to 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, surpassing February’s record of 104.7 bcfd. However, daily output has declined by 2.2 bcfd over the past five days, reaching a one-week low of 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas storage is projected to end the winter withdrawal season at a three-year low of 1.760 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by March 31, significantly below last year's eight-year high of 2.306 tcf. The latest storage report showed a withdrawal of 261 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending February 21, in line with market expectations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that natural gas production will rise to 104.6 bcfd in 2025 and 107.3 bcfd in 2026, while demand is expected to increase slightly to 90.7 bcfd in 2025 before easing in 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 17.91% to 19,004 contracts. Support is at Rs 372.3, with further downside to Rs 357.8, while resistance is seen at Rs 397.3, with a potential test of Rs 407.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 357.8-407.8.
* Natural gas dropped amid near-record output and forecasts for less demand next week.
* However, downside seen limited on record flows to LNG export plants.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.5 bcfd so far in March


Copper

Copper prices surged by 2.08% to settle at Rs 880, driven by trade policy shifts after U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on copper imports. This unexpected move contradicts earlier statements that the Commerce Department was still evaluating potential levies. The tariffs are likely to increase U.S. reliance on domestic smelters, though capacity remains limited, given that the country imports nearly half of its copper. In China, copper supply remained abundant, with treatment charges staying below zero, indicating significant overcapacity in refined copper production. Copper stocks in China neared 270,000 metric tons, three times higher than at the start of the year, reflecting a supply glut. Meanwhile, copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer, fell by 2.1% year-on-year in January to 426,889 metric tons, adding concerns over global supply constraints.The global   copper market posted a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, significantly narrowing from the 124,000 metric ton deficit in November. However, for the full year, the market remained in a 301,000 metric ton surplus, compared to a 52,000 metric ton deficit in the previous year. In China, imports of unwrought copper and copper products jumped 17.8% year-on-year in December to 559,000 metric tons, while refined copper production rose by 4.3% to 1.24 million metric tons. Technically, the copper market remains under fresh buying pressure, with open interest increasing by 14.43% to 7,218 contracts. Immediate support is at Rs 868.1, with a potential decline to Rs 856.2, while resistance is at Rs 887.4, with an upside possibility toward Rs 894.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 856.2-894.8.
* Copper surged after US President Trump stated that the country would tariff copper imports.
* The US President noted he imposed tariffs on copper along with other base metals in his speech before Congress.
* Treatment charges by smelters were still below zero, reflecting the large extent of overcapacity in refined copper production.

Zinc

Zinc prices climbed 1.25% to settle at Rs 271.75, supported by concerns over U.S. import tariffs, fresh Chinese stimulus measures, and a weaker dollar. The imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with doubled duties on Chinese goods, fueled fears of a global trade war. In response, China retaliated with increased levies on U.S. agricultural and food products, heightening tensions between the world's largest economies. Meanwhile, Germany’s infrastructure fund plans and China’s monetary policy adjustments provided some support to the metal markets. On the supply side, global mined zinc production declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, largely due to a 7% drop in refined zinc output from China, as smelters cut capacity due to lower processing rates. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, the world’s largest zinc mine, is expected to slow production in 2025 as ore depletion nears. As a result, the global zinc market flipped to a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024, compared to a surplus of 310,000 metric tons in the previous year. Additionally, refined zinc production dropped by 2.6% last year due to declines in China, Japan, and South Korea. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying pressure, with open interest increasing by 4.25% to 2,307 contracts. The metal has strong support at Rs 268.9, with a potential downside to Rs 266 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 273.5, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards Rs 275.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 266-275.2.
* Zinc gains as worries about the U.S. import tariffs widened and China's fresh stimulus measures.
* Global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024
* China's manufacturing activity returned to expansion in February.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 1.04% to close at Rs 261.25, driven by surging U.S. price premiums amid concerns over import tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to reintroduce a 25% tariff on aluminium imports starting March 12 has fueled supply concerns in key industries such as transport, construction, and packaging. JP Morgan has projected a significant tightening of the global aluminium market, expecting a supply deficit of over 600,000 metric tons by 2025, largely due to slowing supply growth and China’s production struggles. Despite this, China produced a record 44 million tons of aluminium in 2024, with output expected to slow as Beijing enforces its production cap of 25 million tons, in line with carbon emission targets. However, aluminium production in China saw a slight rebound in February, contributing to downward pressure on prices. Global primary aluminium output rose by 2.7% year-on-year in January to 6.252 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Meanwhile, China’s aluminium exports surged 17% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2024, reaching nearly 5.5 million tons, highlighting the country’s dominant role in global aluminium trade. Technically, aluminium is experiencing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.02% to settle at 3,287 contracts while prices increased by Rs 2.7. The metal has support at Rs 259.2, and a break below this level could test Rs 257.2. On the upside, resistance is at Rs 262.5, and a move beyond this level could push prices toward Rs 263.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 257.2-263.8.
* Aluminium rose as US President Trump's tariffs drive US physical market aluminium premiums to record high
* JP Morgan predicts global aluminium deficit to exceed 600,000 tons in 2025
* Global aluminium output rises 2.7% year on year in January – IAI

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices remained under pressure, settling slightly lower by 0.02% at Rs 52,510 due to increased supply and subdued mill buying. Mills are well-stocked, reducing their immediate purchasing needs. Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton production is projected to rise by 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, with an expanded planting area of 4.8%, indicating a strong supply outlook. In India, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is expected to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) during the current season. However, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates that domestic cotton output for 2024-25 will decline to 301.75 lakh bales, down from 327.45 lakh bales in 2023-24, primarily due to lower yields in Gujarat and northern states. By the end of January 2025, total cotton supply in India was estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, with fresh pressings at 188.07 lakh bales and imports at 16 lakh bales. Domestic consumption was pegged at 114 lakh bales, while exports were significantly lower at 8 lakh bales. Ending stocks stood at 112.26 lakh bales, with 27 lakh bales held by textile mills and the remaining 85.26 lakh bales with traders and other stakeholders. Global cotton production and ending stocks are projected to rise, with China’s cotton output increasing by one million bales. Technically, the market remains weak, with fresh selling pressure as open interest rose by 2.79% to 258 contracts. Support is seen at Rs 52,480, with a drop below this level potentially testing Rs 52,440. On the upside, resistance is at Rs 52,580, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs 52,640.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52440-52640.
* Cotton dropped due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* CCI is likely to buy more than 100 lakh bales of cotton at MSP during the current cotton year.
* CAI the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat and the northern region.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25198.9 Rupees dropped by -0.5 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 2.64% to settle at 11,876 as the arrival of the new crop began in major mandis like Nizamabad and Hingoli. Although the area under turmeric cultivation increased by 10% this season to 3.30 lakh hectares, untimely rains have hampered productivity, limiting the expected rise in production. The previous season’s production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, but reports from key growing regions like Nanded indicate a potential 10-15% decline in yield due to smaller rhizomes and crop rots. Consequently, overall production is likely to remain similar to last year or fluctuate within a narrow range of 3-5%. Despite the price drop, the downside remains limited due to persistent concerns about low yields and slow rhizome growth. On the trade front, turmeric exports from April to November 2024 rose by 9.80% to 121,601.21 tonnes compared to 110,745.34 tonnes in the same period last year. However, monthly exports in November 2024 declined by 20.18% compared to October, though they remained 48.22% higher than November 2023. Meanwhile, imports surged by 101.80% during April-November 2024, reaching 18,937.95 tonnes. November imports dropped by 34.84% from October but remained relatively stable compared to last year. Technically, turmeric is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 0.67% to settle at 12,765 contracts while prices declined by 322 rupees. Support is seen at 11,724, and a breach below could push prices to 11,572. On the upside, resistance is at 12,104, with further strength potentially leading to 12,332.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11572-12332.
* Turmeric prices dropped as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* New turmeric crop is arriving in Nizamabad and Hingoli Mandi.
* However downside seen limited as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12579.75 Rupees dropped by -0.78 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged up by 0.28% to settle at 21,395 as delays in the arrival of the new crop from Gujarat kept supply concerns alive. The sowing of cumin in major producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan was delayed by about a month due to unfavorable weather. However, the upside was capped due to weak demand and sufficient stock availability. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, and only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the season’s end, leaving a carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected to be similar to last year due to improved crop conditions and good sowing progress. On the trade front, India’s cumin seed production has increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, up from 5.77 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Additionally, India remains the most competitive supplier in the global market, as Indian cumin is currently the cheapest worldwide, priced at $3,050 per tonne, whereas Chinese cumin costs $200-250 more. Strong export demand from China and Europe, along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has boosted cumin shipments. Between April and November 2024, jeera exports surged by 74.04% to 147,006.20 tonnes compared to 84,467.16 tonnes in the same period last year. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 1.96% to 2,406 contracts while prices rose by 60 rupees. Support is at 21,230, with a potential test at 21,050, while resistance is at 21,540, with an upside move possibly extending to 21,670.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21050-21670.
* Jeera gains as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions.
* However upside seen limited as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21104.1 Rupees dropped by -1.33 percent.

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