MCX Natural gas August is expected to slip towards Rs 258-Rs 260 level as long as it stays below Rs 274 level -
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to find the floor near $3960-$4000 per ounce levels and regain its strength on softer dollar and correction in US treasury yields. Further, prices may get support as falling oil prices would ease inflation concerns and lower the chance of a rate hike. A pause in the attacks between US and Iran and growing prospects of further negotiation would normalize oil flows. Even with a drop in oil prices over the last three sessions, the chance of a July Fed rate hike stays above 35%, while the chance for September has risen to 80%. Meanwhile, investors will eye on this week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting; and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tone and the economic projections for more clarity.
• MCX Gold August is expected to find the floor near Rs140,000 level and rise towards Rs144,500 level.
• MCX Silver September is expected to find the support near Rs 216,000- Rs 217,000 level and move back towards Rs 226,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to find the floor and trade with positive bias amid soft dollar and supply tightness. Further, easing geopolitical tension between US and Iran would also support the metal prices. Supply concerns from Chile due to the deadly storm threatened copper production. Deadly storms and heavy snow in Chile forced temporary halts at major mines like Codelco's El Teniente. Further, falling global stocks in LME and SHFE would also support prices. The Yangshan copper premium climbed past $110 a ton, pointing to active buying interest. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious ahead of this weeks Fed policy.
• MCX Copper August is expected to find support near Rs1325 level and move higher towards Rs 1345 level. A break above Rs1345 level prices may be pushed towards Rs1355-Rs1360 level
• MCX Aluminum August is expected to move in the range of Rs339-Rs345 level. Depleting LME inventory likely to provide support. MCX Zinc August is likely
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade lower amid easing supply concerns. Growing prospects of further negotiation between the two nations would ease supply concerns and improve oil supplies. US has suspended strikes against Iran for a third consecutive night. At the same time, Iran also halted its retaliatory military operations in response. Meanwhile, Iranian and Omani negotiators met to secure an agreement to restore shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
• On the data front, a strong put base at $80 strike to act as major support, whereas on the upside $85 call strike has highest call OI and likely to act as key hurdle. MCX Crude oil August is likely to slip towards Rs 7500-Rs 7600 level as long as it stays below Rs 8200 level.
• MCX Natural gas August is expected to slip towards Rs 258-Rs 260 level as long as it stays below Rs 274 level.
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