MCX Gold October is expected to face hurdle near Rs 155,000 and move lower towards Rs 151,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is expected to trade lower due to firm US dollar and rise in treasury yields. Last month’s better-than-expected US jobs data increased the probability of September rate hike to 58% from 50%, which will likely force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. Rising crude oil prices, driven by renewed US–Iran tensions, are expected to heighten inflation concerns and increase the likelihood of tighter Fed monetary policy. Furthermore, any hawkish comments from Fed members could increase rate hike bets, putting additional downward pressure on prices. Today, gold and silver prices are expected to move within a tight range as US markets remain closed in observance of Labor Day.
• MCX Gold October is expected to face hurdle near Rs 155,000 and move lower towards Rs 151,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a broader range of Rs 235,000 to Rs 240,000. Only a move above Rs 240,000, it would turn bullish.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to face resistance and trade lower amid stronger dollar and rise in rate hike bets. Additionally, risk-off sentiments due to renewed exchange of fires between US and Iran would weigh on prices. Meanwhile, persistent supply concerns and strong import demand from US should provide support to the metal. Mining output declines in key regions like Chile, coupled with low warehouse inventories in Shanghai and the London Metal Exchange would provide support to prices.
• MCX Copper September is expected to slip towards Rs 1370 as long as it stays under Rs 1385 level. Only a move above Rs 1385 level, it will turn bullish towards Rs 1395.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support near Rs 345 level and rise towards Rs 350-Rs 352. Middle East tensions would hurt supplies and provide support to prices. MCX Zinc September is likely to hold support near Rs 412 level and move higher towards Rs 422 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude futures are expected to trade higher as US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Middle East, fueling concerns over supply from the Gulf region. The recent escalation over the weekend would lower the Global oil supply in September as output from Iran and Saudi Arabia declines. Further, damage to oil refineries in the Gulf region as well as in Russia and depleting inventory levels would keep prices elevated. Meanwhile, OPEC+ members kept oil output policy unchanged for October 2026, pausing further production increase.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to rise towards $93 per barrel as long as it holds above $90 mark. A move above $93 levels would push prices towards $95. MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 8800 as long as it holds above Rs 8300 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to hold support near Rs 272 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.
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