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Gold

Gold prices settled sharply lower by 1.93% at Rs152,767, pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data that increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike as early as September. U.S. job growth accelerated significantly in August, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, highlighting resilience in the labor market and reducing expectations for near-term monetary easing. Short-term interest-rate futures now indicate around a 65% probability of a rate increase at the September 15–16 Fed meeting, up from 55% before the jobs report. Market attention will now turn to upcoming U.S. consumer and producer inflation data for further guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Fed Governor Michael Barr and Chairman Kevin Warsh have also maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing the need for further action if inflation remains above the 2% target. Physical demand showed mixed but improving trends, with lower prices encouraging buying in India, while China continued to see investment-led demand despite weak jewellery consumption. Indian dealers quoted discounts of up to $54/oz, narrowing considerably from $135/oz last week, while Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $3.5–$9/oz. Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan markets also recorded modest premiums or narrow discounts. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at the end of July, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion and equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 2.42% to 10,768 contracts while prices declined Rs3,008, indicating fresh short positioning. Gold is currently finding support near Rs150,325, and a sustained break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs147,885. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near Rs156,140, while a decisive move above this zone could trigger recovery toward Rs159,515.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147885-159515.

* Gold fell after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data

* Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as this month

* U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in August while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply lower by 1.94% at Rs237,658, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy following robust employment data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, following an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 in July and significantly surpassing market expectations of 56,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while annual wage growth eased to 3.1%, although the moderation was less than expected. The resilient labor market lifted expectations of a September Fed rate hike to nearly 65%, increasing pressure on precious metals. Fed Governor Waller indicated that continued progress toward the 2% inflation target could support holding rates at current levels, providing some counterbalance to the hawkish employment signal. Meanwhile, silver fundamentals remain structurally supportive. London vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July, valued at approximately $52.7 billion, equivalent to around 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising the possibility of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18%, supported by stronger U.S. buying. Global supply is also projected to decline 2%, offering fundamental support. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 0.46% to 12,293 contracts while prices declined Rs4,691, indicating continued short-side activity. Silver is currently finding support near Rs234,135, and a sustained break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs230,610. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs241,620, while a decisive move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs245,580.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 230610-245580.

* Silver fell as the dollar strengthened following stronger-than-expected US employment data.

* Money markets now pricing in a near 65% probability of Fed rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

* US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, following an upwardly revised increase of 23,000 in July.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled lower by 0.75% at Rs8,578 as profit booking emerged after the recent rally, while persistent tensions between the United States and Iran continued to influence market sentiment. The resumption of US-Iran strikes after nearly a month revived concerns over potential supply disruptions, while Israeli warnings of further attacks on Iranian military and civilian infrastructure added to geopolitical risk. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington would not hold talks with Tehran unless Iran stops attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping concerns over regional supply routes elevated. However, signs of continued physical supply limited the downside, with Iraq’s oil exports rising in August and expected to increase further in September. Citi raised its third-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $86 per barrel from $80 previously, citing the slower-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining its fourth-quarter 2026 and 2027 forecasts at $70 and $65 per barrel respectively. US crude inventories declined by a stronger-than-expected 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, marking the first draw in five weeks and exceeding expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel decline. Cushing inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose by 0.103 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.173 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks increased by 0.796 million barrels. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.02% to 15,378 contracts while prices fell Rs65, indicating profit booking and reduction in existing positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs8,402, and a break below this level could extend weakness toward Rs8,227. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs8,724, while a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs8,871.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8227-8871.

* Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as tensions between the US and Iran continued to drive market sentiment.

* Citi said it raised its mark-to-market Brent average forecast for the third quarter of 2026 to $86 a barrel from $80 a barrel previously.

* US Vance said that Washington does not plan to hold talks with Tehran unless Iran stops attacking commercial shipping in Hormuz.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 0.97% at 280.5, supported by unseasonably warm weather across parts of the Midwest and eastern United States, which kept cooling demand elevated and encouraged power generators to burn more gas for electricity generation. Average US Lower 48 gas production increased to 112.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 112.2 bcfd in August, highlighting continued strong supply. However, LSEG expects average Lower 48 demand including exports to decline to 107.6 bcfd next week from 109.7 bcfd this week. Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although flows remain below the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. US natural gas inventories increased by 30 Bcf in the week ending August 28 to 3,214 Bcf, while stocks were 50 Bcf lower year-on-year but remained 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf, indicating comfortable overall storage levels. The EIA expects both US natural gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026. Dry gas production is forecast at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, compared with 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the latest forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 18.52% to 33,406 contracts while prices increased by Rs2.7, indicating covering of existing short positions. Natural gas is currently finding support near 276.4, and a sustained break below this level could extend weakness toward 272.2. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 283.6, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward 286.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.2-286.6.

* Natural gas rose as unseasonably warm weather boosted cooling demand.

* The European Union's natural gas storage currently stands at around 65% of its capacity.

* EIA said energy firms added 30 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 28.

Copper

Copper settled lower by 0.27% at 1,378.55 as a stronger US dollar, supported by better-than-expected employment data, increased expectations of tighter monetary policy and concerns over demand weighed on prices. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August after a revised 23,000 increase in July, significantly exceeding expectations for a 56,000 gain. However, copper fundamentals remained mixed, with signs of tightening supply in some major markets. US refined copper and alloy imports reached a record 225,094 metric tons in July as traders continued to build inventories ahead of potential US copper tariffs. COMEX copper inventories have increased for 53 consecutive days to a record 764,597 short tons, while uncertainty over the proposed tariff continues to influence global trade flows. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 13% week-on-week to 63,000 tons, their lowest level since January 2024, while LME stocks fell by 475 tons with another 1,550 tons marked for withdrawal. The copper forward curve remained in backwardation, indicating near-term tightness, although the cash-to-three-month premium narrowed sharply to $93 per ton from more than $500 on August 17. Supply concerns were reinforced by Chilean copper production, which declined 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tons due to adverse weather and maintenance at major mines. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-ton deficit in June compared with a 15,000-ton surplus in May, although the first-half surplus widened to 131,000 tons. Chinese copper imports also weakened, with unwrought copper and copper product imports falling 11.5% year-on-year in July. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 0.94% to 10,772 contracts while prices declined Rs3.75, indicating fresh short positioning. Copper has support at 1,373.8, and a break below this level could test 1,369.0. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,383.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of 1,388.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1369-1388.6.

* Copper dropped as dollar index rose, rebounded from a two-week low after stronger-than-expected US employment data.

* U.S. copper imports in July hit their highest level on record.

* Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed copper inventories fell 13% from last week to 63,000 tons, the lowest since January 2024.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.83% at 418.3, supported by growing concerns over tightening supply and falling warehouse inventories. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 3.3% from the previous Friday, while cancelled LME zinc warrants reached 30,875 tonnes, the highest level in more than a year, highlighting potential availability constraints. However, the upside was capped by renewed Middle East hostilities, which pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy. LME zinc backwardation narrowed to $85 from above $200 in late August as 9,975 tonnes of zinc were delivered into LME warehouses, easing some immediate tightness. On-warrant LME inventories currently stand at 80,225 tonnes. Mine supply remains under pressure, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production declined 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, although its full-year production guidance remained at 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes during the first half, representing 48% of its annual guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus versus 74,000 tonnes a year earlier. Demand concerns remain as elevated prices have discouraged buyers in China. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 2.93% to 2,777 contracts while prices rose Rs3.45, indicating fresh long positioning. Zinc has support at 415.3, and a break below this level could test 412.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at 420.0, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of 421.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 412.4-421.8.

* Zinc prices gained supported by concerns about supply tightness.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.3% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* Global supply is tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled lower by 0.78% at 347.6 as profit booking and expectations of improving production at EGA and Alba weighed on prices, although downside remained limited by tightening availability and supply concerns. The cash-to-three-month aluminium spread moved into slight backwardation, indicating firmer near-term market conditions, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 6.8% from the previous week. Stocks at three major Japanese ports also fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at the end of July, supporting the physical market. Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in August, with the official PMI improving to 49.8 from 49.2 but remaining below the 50 threshold. China also pledged fiscal measures to strengthen growth, although slower second-quarter GDP growth of 4.3% highlighted the need for additional policy support. Supply remains a key market driver as global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July. Gulf production plunged 44% to 293,000 tonnes due to disruptions related to the Iran conflict, while EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter was operating at only 18% of capacity and is expected to recover toward previous levels in early 2027. Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte reduced alumina production to 50% of capacity because of natural gas supply constraints, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes. Chinese aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to 3.9 million tonnes in July, while exports of unwrought aluminium and semis rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.65% to 4,304 contracts while prices fell Rs2.75, indicating profit booking and reduction in existing long positions. Aluminium has support at 346.6, and a break below this level could test 345.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at 349.4, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of 351.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345.5-351.1.

* Aluminium dropped as EGA and Alba maintain upbeat restart and ramp up expectations.

* However, downside seen limited on supply tightness and availability concerns.

* The cash-to-three-month aluminium spread has flipped into a slight backwardation, signalling tightening availability.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 0.78% at 20,402, supported by concerns over hand-to-mouth availability, deficient rainfall and the potential impact of El Nino on the newly sown crop. Lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key growing regions has raised concerns over upcoming production, while carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks are around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall supply buffer. Continued dryness during the early crop development phase could negatively affect yields and provide further support to prices. However, revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased immediate crop stress, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have ensured better water availability for the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. These developments have reduced crop failure concerns and created a softer undertone as traders assess whether improved weather can translate into higher production. Selling pressure from farmers remained evident during the peak harvest period as producers sought to liquidate stocks. EU Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, pressuring commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remains encouraging, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. Strong growth was recorded in China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, reflecting broad-based international demand. Nizamabad spot prices ended at Rs20,047.1, up 0.25%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 0.57% to 36,085 contracts while prices rose Rs158. Turmeric has support at Rs20,268, and a break below this level could test Rs20,136. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,516, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs20,632.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20136-20632.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20047.1 Rupees gained by 0.25 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled marginally higher by 0.07% at Rs21,455, supported by a rapid tightening in the availability of premium-quality bold and export-grade high-purity seeds, even though overall physical supplies remain relatively stable. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started declining, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable volumes. Demand remains steady but cautious, with traditional Middle Eastern buyers largely following hand-to-mouth purchasing due to geopolitical and logistical uncertainties. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing support to quality segments. However, upside remains capped by aggressive farmer selling for cash flow, faster harvesting and drying due to favorable weather, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and limited bulk procurement by industrial spice grinders. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also pressuring Indian export premiums. Domestic production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. China production is estimated lower at 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9–10 thousand, 10–11 thousand and 10–12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Although exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth, they were insufficient to offset the broader decline. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs21,085.85, down 0.33%. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 1.69% to 5,766 contracts while prices increased Rs15, indicating covering of existing short positions. Jeera has support at Rs21,370, and a break below this level could test Rs21,280. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,540, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs21,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21280-21620.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21085.85 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.

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