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MCX Gold vs. Silver

Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is likely to move in between $3960-$4080 per ounce levels ahead of today’s key Fed policy. As per the CME Fed-watch tool, July rate hike probability stands near 30%, where as September rate hike bets has just dropped to 76% from 80%. However, focus will remain on new leadership approach from the Fed chair Kevin Warsh as he has moved away from traditional forward guidance, shifting policy focus to data-dependent stance. Meanwhile, renewed hostilities in Middle East and rebound in crude oil prices would heighten inflation concern and restrict any upside move in bullion prices.

• MCX Gold August is expected to move in the band of Rs139,500 level and Rs143,000 level. Only a move below Rs139,500 it would correct towards Rs138,000

• MCX Silver September is expected to consolidate in between Rs213,500- Rs221,000 level. Only a move below Rs213,500, it would turn weak towards Rs210,000 level

MCX Copper vs. Aluminium

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to face resistance and move lower amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Further, investors will remain cautious ahead of today key US Fed policy. Any sign of hawkish stance form the new Fed chair would weigh on metal prices. Meanwhile, supply concerns from Chile due to the deadly storm threatened copper production and falling global stocks in LME and SHFE would limit its downside. The Yangshan copper premium just dropped to $103 from $110 a ton, suggesting active buying interest.

• MCX Copper August is expected to correct towards Rs1315 level as long as it trades below Rs1336 level. Only a break above Rs1336 level, it may reverse its trend and move higher towards Rs1345-Rs1350 level

• MCX Aluminum August is expected to find support near Rs330 level and rebound towards Rs340 amid renewed Middle east tension. Further, depleting LME inventory likely to provide support. MCX Zinc August is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs382 level and slip towards Rs374 level. A move below Rs374 would further weaken towards Rs370 mark.

MCX Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade higher and move towards $85per barrel mark as renewed tension between US and Iran reignited fresh concerns over disruption to energy supplies. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq launched drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region for a second consecutive day, although the full extent of the damage remains unclear. Diplomatically, Iran rejected Oman’s proposal for a 50-50 split control of the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that Tehran must keep full control of the inbound lane and partial control of the outbound rout.

• On the data front, a strong put base at $80 strike to act as major support, whereas on the upside $85 call strike has highest call OI and likely to act as key hurdle. MCX Crude oil August is likely to bounce back towards Rs8100-Rs8200 level as long as it stays above Rs7600 level.

• MCX Natural gas August is expected to find support near Rs250-Rs252 level and rebound towards Rs265 level

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