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Gold

Gold prices declined by 1.01% to settle at 141,623, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Market participants are closely watching the central bank's guidance on interest rates, with expectations firmly centered on unchanged rates this week. However, CME FedWatch data indicates that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has risen to 36.3%, compared to 16% a week earlier, while markets are pricing an 81% chance of a rate increase in September. Higher interest rate expectations continue to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump reiterated his call for lower U.S. interest rates, although geopolitical uncertainty persisted as negotiations with Iran remained fragile despite renewed diplomatic efforts. Investment demand showed mixed signals. CFTC data revealed that COMEX gold speculators increased net long positions by 4,438 contracts to 123,586, reflecting continued institutional interest. In contrast, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong declined by more than 5% in June to 50.679 metric tonnes, indicating softer import demand. Physical demand also remained uneven across Asia. India's gold discounts widened to $56 per ounce, the highest in seven weeks, as elevated prices discouraged buyers. Conversely, Chinese premiums improved to $3-$6 per ounce, signaling better buying interest. London vault holdings increased 0.77% to 9,464 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, highlighting ample global bullion inventories. From a technical perspective, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 14.87% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 141,065, followed by 140,505, while resistance is placed at 142,270 and 142,915. A sustained move below support may extend the corrective phase, whereas a breakout above resistance could revive short-term bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140505-142915.

* Gold prices edged lower pressured by a stronger dollar, while markets looked to Fed’s upcoming policy decision.

* President Trump the US was having "good talks" with Iran and there was a chance of a deal over their conflict.

* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled year-on-year in June, but slipped over 5% from the previous month.

Silver

Silver prices declined 2.41% to settle at 215,840, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The dollar remained near a four-week high as markets priced in a 36% probability of a rate hike this week, while expectations for a September increase remained close to 80%. Higher interest rate expectations continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals. Safe-haven demand also weakened after optimism emerged over possible progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, although geopolitical risks remain elevated. Several Federal Reserve officials reinforced the case for tighter monetary policy, emphasizing that persistent inflation could require additional rate hikes despite recent moderation in inflation data. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed outlook for silver. ANZ maintained that silver continues to move closely with gold in the short term, but expects its supply-demand fundamentals to become increasingly supportive over the medium to long term. London vault holdings increased 1.7% during June to 28,082 tonnes, valued at approximately $53.1 billion, indicating comfortable global inventories. Meanwhile, India's silver imports dropped sharply, reflecting tighter government restrictions and higher import duties. Imports declined 87% in value to $75.57 million, while import volumes plunged 94% year-on-year to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The government's measures aim to curb precious metal imports and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves following record silver imports during the previous financial year. From a technical perspective, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.77%, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 213,605, followed by 211,375, while resistance is seen at 219,310 and 222,785. Sustained weakness below support could extend the downside, whereas a decisive breakout above resistance may trigger renewed buying interest.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 211375-222785.

* Silver prices fell pressured by a stronger US dollar and investor caution ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision.

* The dollar remained near a four-week high as markets priced in more than a one-third chance of a rate hike.a

* US single-family home prices backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased 0.3% in May 2026, following a 0.1% decrease in April.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 4.45% to settle at 7,603, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions. Sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington was engaged in constructive discussions with Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution and the restoration of normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The suspension of U.S. military strikes and renewed negotiations between Iranian and Omani officials further improved confidence that one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes could remain open. Additional supply support came from the resumption of crude exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast after earlier disruptions. Fundamental data also weighed on prices. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.011 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a 1.25 million-barrel draw, signaling softer demand conditions. Gasoline inventories rose by 765 thousand barrels, while distillate stocks increased 1.395 million barrels, both indicating ample fuel supplies. Net U.S. crude imports also climbed by 485 thousand barrels per day, adding to supply availability. On the production front, OPEC+ approved another output increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, extending previous production hikes. Although actual production remains below pre-conflict levels due to earlier disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the gradual recovery in exports and higher production targets continue to reinforce expectations of improving global oil supply. From a technical perspective, crude oil remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 30.87% alongside falling prices, indicating liquidation of bullish positions. Immediate support is seen at 7,406, followed by 7,208, while resistance is located at 7,860 and 8,116. Sustained trading below support may extend the corrective phase, whereas a breakout above resistance could encourage fresh buying momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7208-8116.

* Crude oil fell after President Donald Trump said the US was engaged in "good talks" with Iran aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

* Supply conditions also improved as crude exports resumed at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast.

* International Energy Agency has downgraded its projections on Russian oil production because of Ukrainian attacks on the country's energy infrastructure.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 2.79% to settle at 261, pressured by record U.S. production, lower flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, and comfortable storage levels. Bearish sentiment was reinforced as speculative traders increased their net short futures and options positions to the highest level since March 2024, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Production in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 110.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, matching the previous monthly record, while daily output climbed to a new all-time high of 112.3 bcfd, reflecting abundant supply conditions. Despite forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through August 11, which is expected to keep cooling demand elevated, the market remained focused on robust supply. Average gas demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 110.8 bcfd this week to 113.3 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended July 17, slightly below expectations of 35 bcf. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.056 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below last year's level but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, highlighting comfortable inventory conditions. The EIA also forecasts U.S. dry gas production to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are expected to increase steadily to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting long-term demand growth. From a technical perspective, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 23.02%, indicating aggressive new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 256.3, followed by 251.7, while resistance is located at 266.8 and 272.7. A break below support may extend the decline, whereas sustained trading above resistance could trigger a recovery in prices.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251.7-272.7.

* Natural gas dropped on record output, lower flows to LNG export plants, and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Average gas output has risen to 110.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June

* Speculators lifted bearish positions to highest since March, CFTC data showed

Copper

Copper prices declined 0.92% to settle at 1,324.35, as expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy weighed on sentiment despite easing geopolitical tensions and softer crude oil prices. Investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with higher interest rate expectations threatening industrial metal demand. However, downside pressure was partly limited by tightening physical supplies outside the United States, as significant volumes of copper continued to flow into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper imports. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed picture. In China, inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses fell 12.9% last week to 69,610 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2024, reflecting healthy consumption. LME copper inventories also remained at their lowest level since March. Meanwhile, Chile's Antofagasta resumed production at its Los Pelambres mine after weather-related disruptions without changing its annual production guidance. Chile also raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound from $5.46, highlighting confidence in the long-term market outlook. However, production at major Chilean mines remained weak, with Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi reporting double-digit year-on-year declines. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, while China's refined copper imports reached a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, supported by firm demand and tighter domestic supply. Markets also remain attentive to additional Chinese stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic growth and industrial activity. From a technical perspective, copper remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 18.42%, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 1,318.9, followed by 1,313.3, while resistance is placed at 1,332.5 and 1,340.5. A break below support could extend the downside, whereas sustained trading above resistance may revive short-term bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1313.3-1340.5.

* Copper prices edged lower, weighed by lingering bets of a U.S. interest rate hike threatened to dampen demand.

* Chilean copper miner Antofagasta said production has resumed at its Los Pelambres copper mine.

* Citi bank held its $14,500 per metric ton zero- to three-month target and its $15,000 per ton year-end target.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.78% to settle at 376.75, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which could weaken demand for industrial metals. Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the Fed's policy decision, although losses were partially limited by tightening near-term supply conditions. Planned maintenance at a zinc smelter in Central China during August is expected to reduce output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes, providing some support to prices by restricting short-term supply. Fundamental indicators remained mixed. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May to 64,000 tonnes, reflecting healthy domestic output, while zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 0.8% from the previous week, indicating stable physical demand. Supply concerns also persisted following operational disruptions at major smelters. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru gradually resumed production following fire-related disruptions. Meanwhile, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of fiscal year 2026/27. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, highlighting improving market balance. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year but anticipates slower mine supply growth beyond 2026, which could tighten market conditions over the medium term while demand is projected to expand by around 2% annually. From a technical perspective, zinc remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 16.1%, indicating the addition of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 375.5, followed by 374.1, while resistance is seen at 378.5 and 380.1. A sustained move below support could extend the correction, whereas a breakout above resistance may trigger renewed buying interest.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 374.1-380.1.

* Zinc dropped weighed down by a strong dollar and rising bets on an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

* The cash LME zinc contract was trading at $73.27 a metric ton premium over the three-month forward, widening from just under $50 on Friday.

* Zinc smelter in Central China plans to carry out routine maintenance in August, which is expected to last around half a month.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 2.09% to settle at 334.75, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious sentiment ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision. Higher interest rate expectations weighed on industrial metals, although losses were partially cushioned by persistent supply concerns. Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses dropped to 269,300 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, highlighting continued tightness in visible global inventories despite seasonal weakness in downstream demand. Fundamental indicators remained mixed. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that aluminium smelting industry profits surged 117.1% year-on-year during the first half of the year, supported by improved demand. However, domestic aluminium ingot destocking slowed as downstream consumption entered the seasonal off-season. On the supply side, Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions in Australia, while Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a prolonged outage, easing some supply concerns. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf production falling sharply. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japan's major ports declined 7.8% in June, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks fell 4.4%, reflecting healthy physical demand. China's aluminium exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while imports declined 17.4%, highlighting strong export competitiveness. Morgan Stanley expects the aluminium market deficit to narrow in 2026 before shifting to a surplus in 2027, although long-term demand is expected to remain supported by expanding data center construction. From a technical perspective, aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 13.71% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 332.2, followed by 329.5, while resistance is located at 339.3 and 343.7. A sustained break below support could extend the correction, whereas a move above resistance may encourage fresh buying momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 329.5-343.7.

* Aluminium slipped as a stronger US dollar and mounting uncertainty ahead of Fed policy decision weighed

* Pressure also seen amid restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage.

* Stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell further to 269,300, the lowest level seen this century.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined 2.55% to settle at 20,356, as improved monsoon rainfall eased immediate concerns over crop prospects and encouraged expectations of better production during the ongoing Kharif season. Favorable rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions over the past week is expected to accelerate sowing activities, while attractive prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage farmers to expand acreage. However, traders remain focused on rainfall distribution in the coming weeks, as any uneven precipitation or potential El Niño impact could still influence crop development and production. Despite the recent correction, the downside remains limited by tight physical supplies and lower market arrivals. Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, sharply lower than 18,000 bags in the previous session due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly below last season's 20 lakh bags, keeping overall availability relatively tight. However, increased selling by farmers during the peak harvest period and reports of quality issues, including rhizome rot, have added short-term pressure on prices. Export demand continues to provide underlying support. India's turmeric exports slipped marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May, while cumulative April-May exports remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy offset weaker shipments to other destinations, reflecting healthy international demand, particularly for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric. From a technical perspective, turmeric remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.38% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is placed at 20,080, followed by 19,802, while resistance is seen at 20,618 and 20,878. A sustained break below support could extend the correction, whereas a move above resistance may revive fresh buying interest and improve short-term market sentiment.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19802-20878.

* Turmeric dropped as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* However, the pace of sowing in the coming weeks will depend largely on the distribution of rainfall, particularly amid concerns over the potential impact of El Niño.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 19989.2 Rupees dropped by -1.75 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased 0.33% to settle at 21,000, as increased selling by farmers and comfortable near-term supplies weighed on market sentiment. Farmers continued liquidating stocks to generate cash for the ongoing Kharif sowing season, while favorable weather in north-west India accelerated harvesting, drying, and market arrivals. Rising stocks in NCDEX warehouses also reduced the urgency for spot buying, with large domestic spice processors maintaining a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy instead of aggressive bulk purchases. Despite the weakness, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality export-grade seeds. Supplies of bold, high-purity jeera are shrinking faster than expected, while daily arrivals in major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline. Quality concerns have also emerged following reports of blight disease in key producing areas of Gujarat, affecting both output and seed quality. Market estimates suggest India's jeera production could decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower acreage. Production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48-50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. Internationally, lower production estimates in China due to adverse weather may offer some long-term support, although improved crop prospects in Turkey and Syria continue to pressure Indian export premiums. India's jeera exports fell 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative April-May exports declined 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to emerging markets such as Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker exports to traditional buyers. From a technical perspective, jeera remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.9% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 20,890, followed by 20,780, while resistance is placed at 21,130 and 21,260. A sustained move below support could extend the correction, whereas a breakout above resistance may encourage renewed buying interest.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20780-21260.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20771.8 Rupees dropped by -0.29 percent.