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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to trade lower on strong dollar and higher inflation concerns. Sharp jump in crude oil prices after renewed escalation has threatened the interim US-Iran peace deal, increasing inflation fears and heightening prospects for interest rate hikes. As per the CME Fed-watch tool September rate hike has jumped to 67% from 56% a day ago. Additionally, sluggish jewellery demand growth and slowdown in ETF inflows would weigh on prices. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US economic numbers and FOMC meeting minutes for further clues on the policy outlook. On the data front, latest CFTC data suggest a significant rise in speculative net longs to 194,000 contracts for the third week in a row, which would provide support to price.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip towards Rs143,000 - Rs143,500 level as long as it trades under Rs146,500 level

• MCX Silver September is expected to slip towards Rs 226,000 - Rs 227,000 level as long as it stays under Rs 237,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade lower amid strong dollar and demand uncertainty from China. Further, slowing growth stemming from geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in US tariff policies along with high global interest rate expectations likely to weigh on prices. Meanwhile, tightness in the global copper concentrate would limit its downside. Moreover, depleting LME inventory levels would provide support to prices. Focus will remain on key US decision on import duty on refined copper imports.

• MCX Copper July is expected to move in the band of Rs1270 and Rs 1290 level. Only a move below Rs1270 it would slip towards Rs1260.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to move in the band of Rs 328 and Rs 335. Only a move above Rs 335 level it would open the doors towards Rs 338. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support at Rs 365 level and rise towards Rs 372- Rs 374 level. Only a move below Rs 365 it would slip towards Rs360.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude is expected to trade with positive bias amid renewed supply disruption fears. Renewed attacks on three ships including a Saudi oil tanker have triggered the escalation. The attacks have forced US to revoke a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. The U.S. Treasury abruptly revoked the Iranian oil waiver on July 7 following renewed attacks, cutting short the sanctions relief originally scheduled to last until August 21. These hostilities have heightened fears of a total collapse in the interim peace deal, jeopardizing the recovery of crude supplies from the Persian Gulf. Further, prices would also get support from depleting inventory levels.

• NYMEX crude oil is likely to rise towards $75 as long as it holds above $69. MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards Rs 7000 - Rs 7100, as long as it trades above Rs 6550 level.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to rise towards Rs 315 - Rs 318 level as long as it stays below Rs300 level.

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