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Gold

Gold prices declined by 1.04% to settle at Rs145,392, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. Market sentiment also reflected concerns that inflation could remain persistent despite ongoing peace discussions related to the Iran conflict. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that forward guidance remains an effective monetary policy tool when applied with flexibility, reinforcing expectations of a cautious policy stance. On the economic front, U.S. services sector activity eased in June as the boost from war-related front-loading of orders faded. However, employment rebounded after three consecutive months of contraction, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Physical gold demand presented a mixed picture across major consuming nations. Indian demand softened after prices recovered from three-month lows, while buying interest in China improved modestly. Premiums and discounts across key Asian markets remained relatively stable, reflecting balanced regional demand. Investment demand showed encouraging signs as Perth Mint's gold coin and bar sales surged 53% month-on-month in June to a two-month high and increased 5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, gold stored in London vaults rose 0.21% to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. China's central bank continued strengthening its bullion reserves for the 20th consecutive month, adding 480,000 ounces in June, the largest monthly increase since October 2023, although the overall valuation of reserves declined due to lower bullion prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.47% alongside lower prices. Gold finds immediate support at Rs144,745, followed by Rs144,090, while resistance is seen at Rs146,310. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 147,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 144090-147220.

*  Gold dropped as dollar strengthened and traders priced in a higher chance that Fed would keep interest rates elevated.

*  The Iran war also kept concern that inflation could remain sticky despite peace talks.

*  China’s central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million fine troy ounces.

Silver 

Silver prices declined by 2.22% to settle at Rs 230,857, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes for further clarity on the U.S. interest rate outlook. Sentiment was also influenced by mixed U.S. economic data. The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6 billion in May, the largest since March 2025, driven by a 3.3% increase in imports to $395.3 billion, the highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and downward revisions to previous payroll figures reduced expectations of a near-term rate hike, with markets now pricing a 57% probability of a September rate increase. Physical market indicators remained mixed. Perth Mint reported that silver coin and minted bar sales declined 19% month-on-month to 293,732 ounces in June and were down 37% year-on-year, reflecting softer retail investment demand. In contrast, silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, indicating stable institutional inventories. India’s silver imports dropped sharply following tighter government restrictions. Imports plunged 87% year-on-year in value to $75.57 million, while import volumes fell 94% to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest since February 2023. The government has expanded import restrictions and maintained higher import duties of 15% to curb precious metal imports and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.83% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 228,960, followed by Rs 227,070, while resistance is seen at Rs233,420. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs 235,990.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 227070-235990.

* Silver dropped as investors awaited the minutes of Fed’s June meeting for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates.

* US trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6 billion in May 2026 from a revised $54.6 billion in April, broadly in line with expectations.

* Traders now see about a 57% chance of a rate increase in September, down from more than 60% before the data.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices gained 2.35% to settle at Rs6,705, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after a ship was reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Market sentiment also turned cautious after Iran stated that peace negotiations with the United States would not resume unless President Donald Trump withdrew threats of renewed military action. Investors continue to closely monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that previously handled around one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Despite geopolitical support, the longer-term supply outlook remains bearish. Societe Generale expects the global oil market to shift from a deficit to a surplus during late 2026 and into 2027 as production growth outpaces demand. Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its crude pipeline capacity to the Red Sea, reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to increase production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, following similar quota increases in June and July. However, actual output has remained constrained due to disruptions caused by the regional conflict, although the UAE lifted production close to record levels above 3.8 million barrels per day in June. Inventory data provided mixed signals. U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels, while gasoline stocks also fell, indicating healthy fuel demand. However, crude inventories at the Cushing delivery hub increased for the first time in nine weeks, distillate inventories rose sharply, and net crude imports increased. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.61% while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 6,601, followed by Rs 6,497, whereas resistance is placed at Rs6,766. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 6,827.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6497-6827.

* Crude oil gains as ship was hit in Hormuz and Iran said there would be no more peace talks.

* Talks to reach a final deal between Tehran and Washington won't start if U.S. threats continue, Iran's foreign minister said.

* Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker damaged near Hormuz after LNG tanker hit, sources say

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose 0.84% to settle at Rs311.7, supported by lower U.S. gas production and stronger flows to LNG export facilities. Dry gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110.0 bcfd in June and below the record monthly high reached in December 2025. Meanwhile, gas deliveries to major LNG export plants increased to 18.1 bcfd from 17.4 bcfd, reflecting firm overseas demand and providing additional support to prices. Demand also received a boost from expectations that a recent heatwave increased natural gas consumption by power generators to meet higher electricity demand for cooling. However, gains may remain limited as weather forecasts now point to cooler temperatures across the eastern United States through mid-July, which could reduce cooling demand and ease pressure on storage withdrawals. According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, working gas in underground storage increased by 87 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ended June 26, taking total inventories to 2,922 Bcf. Storage levels remain 23 Bcf below the corresponding period last year but stand 175 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating adequate overall supply despite seasonal demand fluctuations. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record levels in 2026. Production is projected to average 111.0 bcfd, while domestic demand is forecast at 92.1 bcfd. LNG exports are also expected to rise significantly, averaging 17.2 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.92% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs304.6, followed by Rs297.5, while resistance is seen at Rs317.1. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 322.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297.5-322.5.

* Natural gas rose supported by falling output and rising flows to LNG export plants.

* Gas inventories likely held about 6.4% above normal in the week ended July 3

* Despite cooler revisions, temperatures should stay above normal through July 21

Copper

Copper prices declined 0.88% to settle at Rs 1,276.05, pressured by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, potentially slowing economic activity and industrial metal demand. Market participants also remained cautious as they awaited clarity on possible U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, with no official announcement yet despite earlier expectations. Supply fundamentals remained mixed across major producing and consuming regions. Copper inventories in COMEX warehouses have surged nearly 600% this year, while stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses continued to decline. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also fell 9.6% from the previous week, indicating tighter availability in China. Chile’s copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tonnes, while China’s refined copper production increased 2.2% to 1.26 million metric tonnes, reflecting resilient domestic supply. The International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000 metric tonne global refined copper deficit in April, with world consumption exceeding production. Long-term market fundamentals also remain supportive. Jefferies expects persistent supply deficits through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing weaker mine supply growth, stronger demand, and tighter global balances. China’s investment in power grid infrastructure continues to support copper consumption, with power grid spending rising 37% year-on-year, while copper concentrate imports declined sharply, highlighting raw material constraints. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.97% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,270.8, followed by Rs 1,265.4, while resistance is placed at Rs1,283.9. A sustained move above this level could trigger further upside toward Rs 1,291.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1265.4-1291.6.

* Copper dropped as fears of U.S. rate hikes later this year have weighed as they could dampen economic activity and demand.

* The market is awaiting a decision by Washington on possible import tariffs on refined copper, while outflows from the LME stocks to the U.S. continue.

* China's Yangshan copper premium, which reflects buying appetite, rose 8% to $80 a ton, its 13-month high.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.73% to settle at Rs 368.1, as higher Chinese production and cautious investor sentiment weighed on prices. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, adding to supply expectations. However, the downside remained limited due to encouraging manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States, indicating resilient industrial demand despite elevated input costs. U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month, although the pace of growth moderated from May’s four-year high. Supply fundamentals continued to provide underlying support. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.2% from the previous week, reflecting healthy physical demand. At the same time, production disruptions at several major facilities tightened near-term supply. Glencore’s Kazzinc smelter in Kazakhstan continues to operate at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations after a fire. Concerns also persist over reduced output at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following earlier seismic activity. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tonnes in April from 56,300 metric tonnes in March, although the cumulative surplus for the first four months of the year remained above last year's level. Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus this year but forecasts slower mine supply growth from 2027 onward, which could push markets outside China into deficit as demand continues to expand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 11.95% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs 366.0, followed by Rs 363.9, while resistance is placed at Rs 371.3. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs374.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 363.9-374.5.

* Zinc dropped as China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

* However downside seen limited  supported by signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to produce 108,200 metric tons of refined zinc in the first half of 2026/27, up 3.2% from a year ago.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged 0.24% higher to settle at Rs333.25, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and continued declines in visible inventories. Market sentiment remained cautious after a ship was reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran stated that peace talks with the United States would not resume unless President Donald Trump halted threats of renewed military action. The geopolitical uncertainty continued to support aluminium prices given the Gulf region’s importance in global aluminium production. Visible inventories also provided bullish support. Stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell to 292,425 tonnes, their lowest level since September 2022, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.4% from the previous week. Japanese buyers agreed to pay aluminium premiums of $395 per tonne for July-September shipments, representing a 12-13% increase from the previous quarter, highlighting tighter regional supply conditions. On the supply side, Emirates Global Aluminium announced a faster-than-expected recovery at its Al Taweelah complex, although full production is expected to take up to a year. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro plans to partially restart production at its Slovalco smelter during the fourth quarter of 2026. However, higher aluminium production in China and expanding smelter output in Indonesia continued to limit upside potential. China’s aluminium production increased 1.7% year-on-year in May, while exports also remained strong. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% during the month, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.91% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs331.5, followed by Rs 329.7, whereas resistance is placed at Rs334.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 335.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 329.7-335.9.

* Aluminium prices rose as markets weighed potential supply tightness amid Middle East tensions

* Goldman Sachs lowers Q4 2026 aluminium forecast to $2,950/t and 2027 average forecast to $2,700/t

* Goldman reduces 2026 deficit to 100kt and lifts 2027 surplus to around 1.5mt

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices edged 0.27% higher to settle at Rs17,940, supported by short covering after recent declines triggered by increased farmer selling during the peak harvest season. Higher arrivals across major mandis have continued to outpace immediate demand, keeping overall market sentiment cautious. Significant inventories of around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal and the release of stocks by farmers who had previously delayed sales have also weighed on prices. Reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals have further pressured sellers to accept lower prices. Despite near-term pressure, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, considerably lower than last season’s level of over 20 lakh bags, indicating tighter long-term availability. At the same time, buyers have slowed purchases as some industries shift to cheaper substitutes or wait for lower prices. The advance of the southwest monsoon and forecasts of above-normal rainfall across southern India have improved prospects for the next sowing season, with early reports indicating higher acreage in major producing states following the previous high-price cycle. Export demand remained broadly stable. India’s turmeric exports increased 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Shipments to China recorded exceptional growth, while exports to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan also increased significantly. Although exports to the UAE and the United States declined, stronger demand from China, Bangladesh, and other emerging markets helped maintain overall export momentum. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers and continued procurement from Bangladesh also supported market sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.07% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 17,804, followed by Rs 17,666, while resistance is seen at Rs 18,076. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 18,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17666-18210.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16908.45 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices gained 1.28% to settle at Rs 20,580, supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds and lower arrivals across major trading centres. Market sentiment improved as post-harvest selling pressure eased and stockists gained better pricing power. Arrivals in key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have been declining, while recent unseasonal rains, strong winds, and dust storms affected storage conditions, increasing moisture levels and reducing seed quality. This has widened the price gap between average-grade and export-grade cumin. Farmers and large stockists in Gujarat are releasing high-quality stocks gradually rather than selling aggressively, creating localized supply tightness. Export demand has also shown improvement, with buyers from Europe and North America returning to procure residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have further reduced the availability of quality produce. Production estimates remain lower than last year due to reduced sowing area. India’s jeera output for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Production in Gujarat is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected at 48–50 lakh bags. Global supply also appears tighter, with China’s production estimate revised down to 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather. India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE. However, exports to Morocco, the USA, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partly offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 7.16% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs20,350, followed by Rs 20,100, while resistance is seen at Rs 20,770. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 20,940.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20100-20940.

* Jeera prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20470.35 Rupees dropped by -0.23 percent.

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