MCX Gold Aug is expected to face hurdle near Rs 143,500 - Rs 144,000 level and move lower towards Rs 140,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to face strong resistance near $4100 and move lower towards $3900 amid strong dollar and growing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to combat inflation. Higher US inflation numbers and strong job growth numbers has increased the probability of September rate hike to 60%. Further, renewed concerns of elevated energy prices would force major central banks to keep interest rates higher. Moreover, recent liquidation in both gold and silver is negative for prices. Investors pulled a net $4.7 billion out of physically backed gold ETFs recently, the largest outflow yet this year. Meanwhile, focus will remain on progress on US-Iran peace deal in Doha. Any positive outcome would cool down inflation concerns and limit downside in the bullion prices.
• MCX Gold Aug is expected to face hurdle near Rs 143,500 - Rs 144,000 level and move lower towards Rs 140,000 level
• MCX Silver September is expected to dip towards Rs 215,000 - Rs 216,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 228,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid strong dollar and expectation of tighter monetary policy from US federal Reserve. Meanwhile, steady growth in Chinses manufacturing activity and depleting LME inventory levels would limit its downside. China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 in June 2026 from 50.0 in the previous month, surpassing market expectations of 50.1. It was the fourth consecutive month of expansion in factory activity, supported by accelerated output growth. Meanwhile, investors will focus on latest tariff structure from US Department of Commerce over new tariff on refined copper.
• MCX Copper July is expected to move towards Rs 1250 level as long as it stays under Rs 1270 level.
• MCX Aluminum July is expected to slip towards Rs 326 - Rs 327 level as long as its stays below Rs 338 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support Rs 354 level and rise towards Rs 360 - Rs 364 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude is expected to remain range-bound between $68 and $72 today, as ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations generate mixed signals. Meanwhile, the geopolitical outlook remains clouded by competing interests in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran maintains it will continue overseeing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even if Oman opts not to participate. Meanwhile, shipping through the strategic waterway slowed over the weekend after renewed clashes damaged two vessels.
• NYMEX crude oil is hovering in the band of $68 and $72 since last 2 sessions. A move above $72 will open the doors towards $74. On the flip side a move below $68 it would turn weaker towards $65. MCX Crude oil July is likely to move in a wider range of Rs 6400 - Rs 6850 level. Only a move below Rs 6400, it would slip towards Rs 6200.
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to slid towards Rs 292 - Rs 295 level as long as it stays below Rs 315 level. Higher supplies and inventory levels would likely to weigh on prices.
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