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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to face immediate resistance near $2435 level and slip back towards psychological level of $2400 amid firm dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Dollar and yields are moving north ahead of US FOMC meeting minutes which could provide fresh cues on interest rate trajectory. Recent batch of economic data had boosted expectations of rate cuts in September but those expectations have been pared back as several Fed officials stress the need to see further progress in inflation. Spot gold is likely to slip towards $2400 level as long as it stays below immediate resistance of $2435 level, strong resistance lies near $2450. A sustain break below $2400 prices may move towards $2380 level

• MCX Gold June prices is likely to slip back towards 73,600 level as long as it stays below 74,300 level. A break below 73,600 prices may move further south towards 73,000 level (10-Day EMA)

• MCX Silver July is expected to follow gold and slip towards 93,000 level as long as it stays below 96,000 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias amid firm dollar and a lack of robust physical demand. Further, several Fed policymakers are showing concerns over inflation and are cautious on cutting rates too soon. Investors fear that higher borrowing cost for longer duration will hurt economic growth and dampen demand for industrial metal. Market will remain cautious ahead of US FOMC meeting minutes, which could reflect concern about higher than expected inflation in the first quarter, as the meeting was held before last week’s CPI report

• MCX Copper is expected to correct towards 925 level as long as it stays below 946 level. A sustain break below 925 prices may slide further towards 915 level

• Aluminum is expected to rise back towards 251 level as long as it remains above 245 level

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to slip further towards $77 levels on strong dollar. Further, API reported rise in US crude oil inventories, diminishing hopes of increased demand as summer driving season looms. Furthermore, Biden administration is set to sell 1 million barrels of gasoline from strategic reserves held in the Northeast. Moreover, prices may decline on expectations that Federal Reserve could keep US interest rates higher for longer, damping oil demand. Investors will await minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting and weekly official US oil inventory data

• MCX Crude oil June is likely to slip towards 6400 levels as long as it trades below 6650 levels (200-Day EMA).

• MCX Natural gas is expected to slip towards 215 level as long as it stays below 230 level

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