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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.73% to settle at Rs.75,760, reflecting investor focus on economic data and Federal Reserve signals. The U.S. Q3 GDP was confirmed at an annualized 2.8%, with core PCE inflation revised lower. While markets anticipate a measured pace of rate cuts in 2025, expectations for total cuts stand at just 50 bps. Minutes from the Fed's November meeting highlighted optimism about cooling inflation and a robust labor market, though policymakers remain cautious about premature rate adjustments. Discussions around lowering the reverse repo rate added to market speculation, as funds in the facility hit a multi-year low. On the demand side, global gold consumption excluding OTC trading remained steady at 1,176.5 metric tons in Q3, with higher investment flows offsetting weaker jewelry consumption. Notably, physically-backed gold ETFs saw their first inflows since Q1 2022, gaining 95 tons. Meanwhile, jewelry demand fell 12%, and central banks reduced their gold purchases by 49% compared to the previous year. In contrast, mine production increased by 6%, and recycling rose by 11%, indicating robust supply. In physical markets, premiums in India declined to $3/oz amid higher domestic prices, while Chinese premiums ranged from $10 to a discount of $6/oz. Global OTC flows surged 97% to 136.5 tons in Q3, driven by institutional investors. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with a 34.83% drop in open interest. Gold finds support at Rs.75,570, with further downside to Rs.75,380. Resistance is observed at Rs.76,025, with a move above targeting Rs.76,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 75380-76290.

* Gold gains as investors analyzed recent economic data and President-elect Trump’s cabinet picks

* US economy grew by an annualized 2.8% in Q3, while core PCE inflation was revised downward for the same period.

* Federal Reserve officials conveyed optimism that inflation is subsiding and the labor market remains robust.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.65% to close at Rs.87,680 amid easing geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment. Investors reacted to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, creating economic uncertainty. Additionally, Fed minutes revealed concerns about the economy's trajectory, although strong labor data offered some relief. U.S. initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000 for the week ending November 23, below expectations, highlighting resilience in the labor market despite the aggressive monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to $99.1 billion in October, marking a positive shift from September’s two-year high of $108.7 billion. On the supply-demand front, the Silver Institute reported that the global silver deficit is set to decrease by 4% to 182 million ounces in 2024. While industrial demand and jewelry consumption remain robust, physical investment is forecasted to decline by 16%. Total supply is expected to grow by 2%, led by increased mine output in Mexico, Chile, and the U.S., alongside a 5% rise in recycling due to higher western silverware scrap. India's silver imports have nearly doubled this year, driven by industrial stockpiling and investment demand, with imports reaching 4,554 tons in the first half of 2024. Technically, the silver market is experiencing long liquidation, with a 30.46% drop in open interest. Silver finds support at Rs.87,070, with a further downside to Rs.86,460. Resistance is projected at Rs.88,730, with a potential upward move toward Rs.89,780.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 86460-89780.

* Silver prices dropped amid easing geopolitical tensions.

* There was uncertainty about the direction of the economy, as noted by Fed officials in the minutes.

* A weekly report on jobless claims showed many laid-off workers are experiencing long bouts of joblessness

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged up 0.09% to settle at Rs.5,781 as markets weighed OPEC+ output plans and geopolitical developments. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan reaffirmed their commitment to OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, emphasizing compliance with agreed measures. Middle East tensions temporarily eased following a 60-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah mediated by the U.S., though subsequent skirmishes highlighted ongoing challenges in achieving long-term peace. On the demand-supply front, U.S. crude inventories dropped sharply by 1.844 million barrels last week, surpassing market expectations of a 1.1 million-barrel draw, according to the EIA. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 0.909 million barrels, signaling tightening supplies. However, gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 3.314 million and 0.416 million barrels, respectively, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the EIA revised global oil demand growth forecasts lower, projecting a 1.2 million bpd increase in 2025, down by 300,000 bpd from prior estimates, citing weakening economic activity in China and North America. U.S. oil production forecasts were also trimmed to 13.54 million bpd in 2025, slightly below earlier expectations. Technically, the crude oil market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 1.03% to 10,860. The price finds support at Rs.5,746, with further downside to Rs.5,712. Resistance is expected at Rs.5,841, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.5,902.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5712-5902.

* Crude oil gains as traders anticipate another delay in output increase by OPEC+

* Saudi, Russia, Kazakhstan urge commitment to OPEC+ voluntary cuts

* Meanwhile, Middle East tensions eased after Israel and Hezbollah reached a 60-day cease-fire deal through US-mediated talks.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell sharply by 6.53% to close at Rs.272, pressured by forecasts of milder weather and weaker heating demand in the coming weeks. Meteorologists predict temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states to shift from colder-than-normal to near-average levels by December 4-12, reducing expectations for immediate heating needs. U.S. gas production has also increased, with average output in November rising to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), up from 101.1 bcfd in October, although still below the record high of 105.3 bcfd set in December 2023. Additionally, the oil-to-gas ratio has reached its lowest level since January 2023, potentially prompting energy companies to boost gas drilling. Demand dynamics remain robust, with gas exports to LNG plants averaging 13.5 bcfd in November, close to the December 2023 peak of 14.7 bcfd. U.S. utilities began the winter withdrawal season, drawing 3 billion cubic feet from national storage, contrary to market expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build. Natural gas stocks, at 3,969 billion cubic feet, are 3.7% higher than last year and 6.4% above the five-year average. The EIA forecasts production to decline slightly to 103.3 bcfd in 2024 before rebounding to 104.5 bcfd in 2025, with consumption reaching a record 90 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, as open interest rose by 23.79% to 19,642. Support for natural gas is seen at Rs.264.7, with further downside to Rs.257.4. Resistance stands at Rs.285.8, and a breakout could test Rs.299.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 257.4-299.6.

* Natural gas fell on rising output and forecasts for less cold weather.

* Cold weather boosts spot gas prices to highest since January in parts of US

* Problems at Freeport LNG in Texas limiting US LNG feedgas

Copper

Copper prices rose by 0.48%, closing at Rs.807.75, supported by a weaker dollar and speculation about potential Chinese stimulus measures to mitigate economic risks and counter U.S. tariff pressures. President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports has heightened market uncertainties, although China's industrial profits showed signs of stabilization in October, falling less sharply than in September. On the supply-demand front, the global refined copper market recorded a 131,000-ton deficit in September, a sharp reversal from August’s 43,000-ton surplus, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Consumption exceeded production at 2.35 million tons versus 2.22 million tons, indicating tighter market conditions. Adjusting for Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, the deficit widened to 149,000 tons. China's October imports of unwrought copper rose 1.1% year-on-year to 506,000 tons, reflecting seasonal demand and a brighter consumption outlook. Year-to-date, copper imports increased by 2.4% to 4.6 million tons, while domestic refined copper production grew by 5.4% to 10.04 million tons. The Yangshan copper premium hit a one-week high of $53 per ton, further signaling improved import demand. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering as open interest declined by 4.31% to 8,319 contracts. Copper finds immediate support at Rs.805.4, with a further downside at Rs.803. Resistance is positioned at Rs.810.9, and a break above this level could push prices toward Rs.814.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 803-814.

* Copper prices rose with support from a weaker dollar.

* China would launch more stimulus to counter risks of U.S. tariffs and to support its economy.

* China's industrial profits fell in October but less sharply than the previous month

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 1.23% to settle at Rs.287.65, driven by a sharp decline in inventories at London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Notices to withdraw 94,525 metric tons of zinc over two days reduced on-warrant stocks to a one-year low of 154,125 tons, causing supply concerns and pushing prices higher. The supply pressure reversed October's bearish trends, emphasizing the impact of limited availability on the market. The global zinc market showed a deficit of 79,500 metric tons in September, slightly lower than August's 85,000 tons, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). From January to September 2024, the market reported a deficit of 8,000 tons compared to a surplus of 358,000 tons in the same period in 2023. China's refined zinc production in September increased by over 2% month-on-month but declined by over 8% year-on-year, with significant recovery from maintenance in regions like Sichuan, Guangdong, and Shaanxi. Production is expected to rise marginally in October, especially in Inner Mongolia and Hunan, while some reductions are anticipated in Gansu due to routine maintenance. Technically, zinc is under fresh buying momentum, with open interest increasing by 13.27% to 3,731. Prices find support at Rs.285.4, with a potential test at 283.1 on the downside. Resistance is seen at Rs.289.8, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.291.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 283.1-291.9.

* Zinc prices rose as available LME zinc stocks slump to one – year low after cancellations.

* Available zinc inventories in LME approved warehouses have slumped by 38% over two days to a one-year low.

* Reduced metal availability in LME warehouses is creating supply pressure, meaning less zinc is accessible to other buyers.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices marginally declined by 0.04% to settle at Rs.241.75 after Rio Tinto lifted force majeure on alumina exports from Australian refineries, easing some supply constraints. Meanwhile, RUSAL announced a phased reduction of 250,000 tons in aluminium production due to record-high alumina prices, which have surged to over $700/ton since the start of 2024. This sharp rise has pushed the alumina cost ratio to more than 50% of aluminium cash costs, pressuring profitability. Despite these challenges, RUSAL confirmed that social initiatives and employee benefits would remain unaffected. China, the world's largest aluminium producer, reported robust production figures. Primary aluminium output in October grew 1.6% year-on-year to 3.7 million tons, while year-to-date production reached 36.39 million tons, a 4.3% increase. Alumina and aluminium alloy production in China also saw year-on-year gains of 5.4% and 9%, respectively. On the export front, China shipped nearly 5.5 million tons of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products during the first ten months of 2024, marking a 17% year-on-year rise, with October exports alone climbing by 31%.Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.3% in October, totaling 6.221 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Technically, aluminium is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 2.08%. Prices find support at Rs.240.7, with a potential test at Rs.239.5 on further downside. Resistance is pegged at Rs.243.5, and a move above this could see prices testing Rs.245.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 239.5-245.1.

* Aluminium dropped after miner Rio Tinto lifted force majeure for alumina exports from its Australian refineries.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 1.3% year on year to 6.221 million tonnes

* China’s alumina production totaled around 7.4 million tons in October, growing by 5.4% compared to the same month a year ago.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.25% to settle at Rs.56,050 amid concerns over reduced production and increased import dependency in India. India's cotton output for 2024/25 is projected to decline by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to reduced acreage and damage from excessive rainfall. The USDA also lowered its Indian production forecast to 30.72 million bales while reducing ending stocks to 12.38 million bales. This decline, driven by a shift in planted areas, particularly in Gujarat, is expected to cut India’s exports to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million last year, while imports may rise to 2.5 million bales. Domestic demand is projected to remain steady at 31.3 million bales. Globally, the USDA raised cotton production estimates by 200,000 bales for 2024/25, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting reductions in the U.S. and Spain. However, global trade forecasts were lowered by 500,000 bales due to reduced Chinese imports. U.S. cotton production is revised down to 14.2 million bales, reflecting hurricane damage, while ending stocks increased to 4.1 million bales. In Rajkot's spot market, prices gained by 0.12% to ?26,202.9. Technically, Cottoncandy is under fresh buying, with a 7.26% rise in open interest to settle at 266. Prices have immediate support at Rs.55,850, with a potential test of Rs.55,650 on further downside. Resistance is now likely at Rs.56,200, and a break above this level could see prices testing Rs.56,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55650-56350.

* Cotton gains as India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago.

* However upside seen limited as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.

* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain – USDA

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26202.9 Rupees gained by 0.12 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by -0.72% to settle at Rs.13,510 due to subdued demand and increased arrivals in the market. The anticipated 30-35% rise in acreage for the upcoming season has heightened concerns about production increases, exerting downward pressure on prices. However, losses were capped by reports of crop damage due to heavy rains, with weather conditions potentially impacting overall yields more than initially estimated. The Vidarbha region and turmeric-growing areas in Telangana received 20 mm and 18 mm of rain, respectively, aiding crop development. Sowing activities have seen significant increases, particularly in Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, with a nationwide acreage estimated at 3.75-4 lakh hectares, up from 3.25 lakh hectares last year. While turmeric production is expected to rise to 70-75 lakh bags for the next season, outstanding stocks are projected to be zero, suggesting reduced availability against consumption in 2025. On the export front, turmeric shipments for April-September 2024 rose marginally by 0.96% to 92,911.46 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. Notably, September 2024 exports surged 68.69% year-on-year to 15,326.76 tonnes, while imports during the same period rose significantly by 184.73% to 15,742.12 tonnes. The market remains under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -1.99% to 8,885. Turmeric faces support at Rs.13,312, and a breach could lead to Rs.13,112. Resistance is seen at Rs.13,700, with potential for prices to test Rs.13,888 if this level is surpassed.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13112-13888.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.

* The expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.

* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14158.7 Rupees gained by 0.5 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell by -0.64% to close at Rs.24,890, pressured by increased arrivals, with approximately 15,000 bags arriving daily in Unjha. Farmers are estimated to hold 35% of the current season's stock, while the carryover stock for the new season is expected at around 20 lakh bags. The market anticipates improved export activity post-Diwali, particularly in November-December, driven by global demand for Indian cumin, which is currently the cheapest at $3,050 per tonne. Production challenges persist, with estimates suggesting a 10% decline in output and a 10-15% decrease in Rajasthan's cultivation area. Tensions in the Middle East have boosted demand for Indian cumin, with exports from Gujarat rising significantly. According to the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS), cumin seed exports for July-September stood at 52,022 metric tonnes, a 128% increase year-on-year. Export volumes for April-September 2024 jumped 70.02% to 119,249.51 tonnes compared to the previous year. In September 2024, exports reached 15,635.04 tonnes, a significant rise of 162.34% year-on-year. Additionally, domestic and international demand has surged due to the festive season and limited availability from traditional producers like Syria, Iran, and Turkey. Jeera remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 1.05% to 2,307 contracts. Support is seen at Rs.24,610, with further downside potential to Rs.24,320. Resistance is likely at Rs.25,110, and prices could test Rs.25,320 if this level is breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24320-25320.

* Jeera prices dropped as arrival has increased.

* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat

* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24881.65 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.

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