MCX Aluminum is expected to rise towards 241, as long as it trades above 234 - ICICI Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is likely to trade with a bullish bias amid weakness in the US dollar and softer US treasury yields. Growing bets of another 50 bps interest rate by the Fed would support the bullions. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US inflation numbers. If it further falls further towards the target of 2% then the probability of 50 bps rate cut in November would go up which ultimately push the bullion prices to new highs. Meanwhile, higher OI concentration at $2700 call strike would act as immediate resistance for price. A move above $2700 would open the doors towards $2750.
* MCX Gold Oct is expected to hold the key support at 74700 and move higher towards 76,000. Only a move below 74,700 could bring correction in prices towards 74,200.
* MCX Silver December is expected to hold the support near 91,500 and trade higher towards 94,000. Only close below 91,500 it would slide towards 90,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to hold its gains amid weak dollar and improved risk sentiments. Further China’s efforts to stabilize the property market and reverse its downturn by adjusting policies of housing purchase restriction and lower interest rates will improve the demand outlook of the industrial metals. Further, growing prospects of lower interest rates from ECB would boost the demand hopes of the base metals.
* MCX Copper October is expected to extend its gains further towards 870, as long as it holds above 855 mark.
* MCX Aluminum is expected to rise towards 241, as long as it trades above 234. Prices are likely to get support from the uncertainty around alumina supply in China, as output issues from Guinea and Australia persists.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to weaken further on expectation of higher supplies from Libya and other OPEC+ group. The OPEC members and its allies are planning to increase the output by 180,000 bpd. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US inflation numbers which will give more clarity on the quantum of interest rate cuts in November. Meanwhile, increasing OI in OTM Call strikes indicates resistance for oil price near $70. On the downside strong put base near $65 would act as key support.
* MCX Crude oil October is likely to face the resistance at 5800 and weaken towards 5520. Formation of bearish engulfing pattern on the daily charts would weigh on oil prices.
* MCX Natural gas October is expected weaken towards 225, as long as it trades under 238.
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