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Market Closing Commentary

The Nifty extended its rebound on expiry day, supported by a sharp 7.9% decline in India VIX and Brent crude oil prices slipping below the $100-a-barrel mark. Investor focus now shifts to the RBI policy outcome tomorrow, while continued rupee weakness remained an overhang, with the currency falling 27 paise to 96.56 per dollar.

The Nifty 50 closed 0.98% higher at 22,776, while the Sensex gained 0.95% to close at 73,067.

On the sectoral front, Pharma, FMCG, Financial Services and Metal were the key gainers, while IT and Realty remained the major laggards.

The broader market outperformed the benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 1.08% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 1.56%.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty formed a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low signaling continuation of the pullback for the second session in a row. Index opened on a positive note and gained momentum as the session progressed to close above 22,750 levels.

Volatility is likely to be high in tomorrow session on account of the RBI monetary policy outcome. Going ahead index holding above Tuesday’s low 22,561 will signal extension of the last two sessions pullback towards 23,000 levels.

On the downside a breach below April 2026 low of 22,182 will signal extension of decline towards the 22,000 and CY2025 low of 21743.

Index for a meaningful trend reversal would require forming a sustained Higher High–Higher Low structure in the daily chart and reclaim the 23,000-23,100 level being the confluence of last week high and previous breakdown area.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle which remained contained inside previous session price range signaling consolidation with positive bias as the index gained for the second session in a row ahead of the RBI Monetary policy outcome.

Going ahead, a follow through up move above last three sessions high of 55,200 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area.

Failure to move above last three sessions high will signal some consolidation in the range of 53,500-55,200 levels in the coming sessions.

Index has key short-term support at 53,500-54,000 being the confluence of the last week low and the key retracement of the previous up move.

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