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Gold

Gold surged by 1.14% to settle at 63357, responding to easing inflation signals that fueled expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. economic indicators showcased moderate consumer spending in October, coupled with the smallest annual inflation increase in over 2-1/2 years. The uptick in jobless claims hinted at a labor market softening. Traders adjusted Fed rate cut probabilities, shifting from an 80% chance in May to a one-in-two chance in March, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. In India, physical gold dealers had to offer deeper discounts due to record-high prices, intensifying a post-festival demand slowdown. Discounts rose to $9 per ounce, up from the previous week's $6. Meanwhile, in China, gold premiums were $25-$35, and in Hong Kong, premiums ranged from $1.00-$2.00. Singapore experienced slightly increased premiums of $1.25-$3.00. China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined by about 23% in October, according to Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data. Technically, the gold market witnessed a 3.98% rise in open interest, settling at 17946, alongside a price increase of 717 rupees. Support for gold is identified at 62820, with a potential test of 62280 if it drops below. Resistance is anticipated at 63640, and a breakthrough could propel prices to 63920.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 62280-63920.
* Gold gains after data showing easing inflation raised expectations that Fed would soon start cutting interest rates
* U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years.
* U.S. jobless claims rose slightly pointing to an easing labour market.


Silver

Silver concluded with a 0.74% gain at 78087, influenced by considerations of potential Fed rate cuts. The weakening dollar and stable Treasuries reflected optimism about the U.S. Federal Reserve initiating rate reductions in the first quarter of the upcoming year. U.S. consumer spending moderation, eased inflation, and a slight rise in weekly jobless claims indicated impending interest rate adjustments. Additionally, softer eurozone inflation data fueled expectations of rate cuts by the European Central Bank from early next year. New York Fed President John Williams suggested a halt in interest-rate hikes, emphasizing decisions dependent on data. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for November stood at 49.4, signaling a decline in the manufacturing sector's operating conditions. Silver prices also benefited from concerns about industrial silver supply against robust demand. The Silver Institute projected a 2% drop in global mined silver production in 2023, attributed to reduced output from key producers Mexico and Peru. Simultaneously, increased investment in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks predicted an 8%-10% surge in silver demand. Technically, fresh buying momentum was evident with a 2.99% rise in open interest, settling at 23265. Silver prices rose by 572 rupees. Support is identified at 77500, with a potential dip testing 76905. Resistance is anticipated at 78465, and a breach could lead to testing 78835.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 76905-78835.
* Silver prices rose as traders weighed Fed rate cut prospects.
* The dollar slipped amid hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start reducing interest rates from the first quarter of next year
* U.S. consumer spending moderated in October; the Fed's preferred inflation measure eased in the month

Crude oil

Crude oil experienced a 1.97% decline, settling at 6281, amid growing skepticism about OPEC+ output cuts. Concerns over China's economic downturn further fueled apprehensions about a decline in fuel demand. The OPEC+ alliance agreed to voluntary output cuts of around 2.2 million barrels per day for early next year, responding to falling crude prices and predictions of a surplus in the coming year. Doubts persist regarding the feasibility of enforcing the announced voluntary cuts. In contrast, a private gauge indicated an unexpected expansion in China's factory activity in November, contradicting the official index's contraction signal. U.S. crude oil rail shipments in September dropped by 89,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 170,000 bpd, with domestic shipments falling by 58,000 bpd to 128,000 bpd, and Canadian shipments to the U.S. declining by 32,000 bpd to 42,000 bpd. Concurrently, U.S. crude production in September reached a record 13.24 million barrels per day, fueled by a significant increase in North Dakota's Bakken shale, according to Energy Information Administration data. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling with a 15.8% rise in open interest, settling at 11825, while prices dropped by -126 rupees. Support for crude oil is established at 6191, with a potential test of 6101. Resistance is projected at 6390, and a breakthrough could lead to testing 6499.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6101-6499.
* Crude oil prices extended losses as skepticism mounted over OPEC+ output cuts.
* Investors also remained concerned that worsening economic conditions in China will dent fuel demand.
* OPEC+ group of petroleum producing nations agreed to voluntary output cuts totaling about 2.2 million barrels per day for early next year

Natural gas

Natural gas recorded a 0.6% increase, settling at 236.3, driven by unprecedented flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities that countered record output and milder weather forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected addition of 10 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ending Nov. 24, attributed to warmer-than-usual conditions reducing heating demand. Spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub in Louisiana hit a three-year low in November, averaging $2.71 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), compared to $5.40 in November 2022. Despite a rise in average gas output to 107.7 bcfd in November, daily output indicated a recent decline to a preliminary three-week low of 106.3 bcfd. Meteorological forecasts suggested warmer weather through at least Dec. 14, leading to a drop in LSEG's projected U.S. gas demand from 129.3 bcfd to 119.6 bcfd next week. Technically, the market witnessed short covering with a -5.42% drop in open interest, settling at 40228. Natural gas prices rose by 1.4 rupees. Support is identified at 232, with a potential test of 227.8. Resistance is anticipated at 239.1, with a potential breakthrough leading to testing 242.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227.8-242.
* Natural gas gains as record flows to U.S. LNG export plants offset record output and forecasts for less frigid weather.
* EIA said utilities added a surprise 10 bcf of gas into storage, when warmer-than-usual weather kept heating demand low.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.7 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October.


Copper

Copper prices rose by 0.64%, settling at 726.6, driven by supply concerns and expectations of increasing demand. The planned shutdown of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s Cobre operation in Panama, following a court ruling deeming the mine's new operating contract unconstitutional, is set to reduce global copper supply. This decision is significant as the company contributes approximately 1.5% of the world's copper supply, adding pressure to the global surplus projected for 2024. The unexpected increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China in November suggests a potential pickup in the country's manufacturing sector. Beijing's commitment to targeting CNY 1 trillion in manufacturing and infrastructure development further supports the outlook for increased copper demand. Chilean miner Antofagasta's agreements with Chinese smelters for 2024 copper concentrate treatment and refining charges at $80 per metric ton and 8 cents per pound are 9% lower than the 2023 benchmark level. Additionally, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses decreased by 27% this week, while daily on-warrant stocks in LME-registered warehouses reached their lowest levels since September following recent cancellations of warrants. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh buying, with a gain in open interest by 1.24% to settle at 5286, while prices increased by 4.6 rupees. Copper is currently supported at 722.6, and a breach below may test 718.6 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 728.8, with a move above potentially pushing prices to 731.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 718.6-731.
* Copper gains amid supply concerns and expectations of rising demand.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 27%
* Daily on-warrant stocks in the LME-registered warehouses eased to the lowest since September after fresh cancellations of warrants.

Zinc

Zinc prices recorded a 1.08% increase, settling at 225.3, fueled by positive data from China, supply constraints, a decline in exchange inventories, and a softer dollar. China's factory activity unexpectedly expanded in November, according to the private Caixin survey, countering the fall observed in the official November purchasing managers' index. The softer inflation data in both the United States and the eurozone contributed to the anticipation of a pause in interest rate hikes by central banks, leading traders to bet on potential rate cuts next year. The global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September, reversing the surplus of 28,000 tons in August, as reported by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Despite the monthly fluctuation, the global surplus for the first nine months of the year totaled 475,000 tons, significantly higher than the 47,000-ton surplus during the same period last year. However, concerns emerged as a substantial inflow of zinc reached LME warehouses, tripling in about a week to the highest levels in over two years. From a technical standpoint, the market experienced short covering, with a drop in open interest by -6.74% to settle at 3517, while prices increased by 2.4 rupees. Zinc finds support at 222.7, and a breach below may lead to a test of 220.1. On the upside, resistance is expected at 226.8, and a move above could push prices to 228.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 220.1-228.3.
* Zinc gains due to better-than-expected data from, tighter supply and a softer dollar.
* Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China unexpectedly increased in November, raising hopes the manufacturing sector in the country is finally picking up.
* Beijing pledged to target CNY 1 trillion in manufacturing and infrastructure development.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices exhibited a 0.3% increase, settling at 201.8, driven by positive factory activity data from China in November. The unexpected expansion in China's factory activity provided support to the aluminium market. China's aluminium production in October 2023 reached 3.641 million metric tons, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase. Additionally, global primary aluminium output rose by 3.9% YoY to 6.116 million tonnes in October, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute. China imported 1.17 million metric tons of primary aluminium in January-October, a substantial 173% YoY increase. However, exports saw a decline of 41.19% YoY, resulting in net imports reaching 1.06 million metric tons, up 347.33% YoY. In October alone, imports rose 221.19% YoY and 7.9% MoM to 216,600 metric tons, while exports declined 4.67% YoY and 91.29% MoM to 600 metric tons. Amid regulatory developments, Chinese authorities, including the People's Bank of China, are reportedly creating a "whitelist" to provide lending support to 50 property developers. Internationally, a global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $95 per metric ton for January-March primary metal shipments, representing a 2% decline from the current quarter. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with a gain in open interest by 2.42% to settle at 3977, while prices increased by 0.6 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 200.7, and a breach below may lead to a test of 199.6. On the upside, resistance is expected at 202.6, and a move above could propel prices to 203.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.6-203.4.
* Aluminium gains as data from China showed factory activity surprisingly expanded in November.
* A global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $95 per metric ton for January-March primary metal shipments
* Global aluminium output rises 3.9% year on year in October – IAI

Cotton

Cotton prices, represented as Cottoncandy, recorded a marginal increase of 0.07%, settling at 57240, driven by the Cotton Association of India's (CAI) revised down estimate of cotton production for the current 2023/2024 season. The revision, citing damage in Haryana due to pink bollworm infestation and farmers uprooting plants, contributed to concerns over reduced cotton output. Additionally, a significant decline in cotton production by 25% is anticipated in north Maharashtra due to insufficient rainfall. The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report added to market dynamics, indicating a higher anticipated U.S. production in 2023/24 and raised global ending stocks. The U.S. cotton balance sheet showed slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks, influencing market sentiment. The CAI's final estimate of crop production for the 2022-23 season pegged it slightly higher at 31.8 million bales, reflecting adjustments from its previous estimates. However, this contrasts with the government’s third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales for the season and the 2021-22 season industry production estimate of 29.9 million bales. In north Maharashtra, where normal annual cotton production is approximately 20 lakh tonnes, a 25% decline is expected due to inadequate rainfall. This regional factor contributes to the broader concerns about the supply outlook for cotton. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest remaining unchanged at 152, and prices witnessing a modest increase of 40 rupees. Cottoncandy finds support at 57020, with a breach below potentially leading to a test of 56810. Resistance is likely at 57460, and a move above could propel prices to 57690.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56810-57690.
* Cotton gains as CAI has revised down its cotton production estimate
* India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26709.2 Rupees dropped by -0.16 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices witnessed a decline of -1.61%, settling at 12590, primarily driven by slower buying activities in anticipation of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops in January 2024. The market also faced pressure due to improved crop conditions resulting from favorable weather, compounded by concerns among Maharashtra farmers over the location of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana. Despite these factors, the downside in turmeric prices is anticipated to be limited, mainly owing to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavorable weather conditions. The crop's condition is reported as satisfactory, with harvest readiness expected during January to March. The Indian Meteorological Department's projection of drier-than-average conditions in October could impact crop growth, but the current levels of buying activity and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability. Additionally, there is support from improved export opportunities, with a notable 25% increase in turmeric exports, reflecting improved demand in both developed and emerging nations. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, are attributed to shifting priorities among farmers. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, marked by a -0.95% drop in open interest, settling at 10975. Turmeric finds support at 12424, and a breach below may lead to a test of 12258. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 12848, with a breakout potentially pushing prices to 13106.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12258-13106.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13467.2 Rupees dropped by -1.43 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices recorded a decline of -1.11%, settling at 44115, driven by expectations of normal sowing activities due to favorable weather conditions and adequate soil moisture. However, the downside appears limited as stockists show interest in buying amid the recent price downturn. In Gujarat, cumin sowing witnessed a substantial increase of nearly 116%, reaching 244,639.00 hectares, compared to 113,109.00 hectares in the same period in 2022, signaling robust production prospects. Despite the positive domestic outlook, global demand for Indian jeera faced a setback, with buyers preferring other origins like Syria and Turkey due to the relatively higher prices in India. This shift in preference has led to a drop in Indian jeera exports, down by 29.79% during Apr-Sep 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year. Jeera exports in September 2023 declined by 60.27% YoY, reflecting the impact of this change in global buying patterns. The competitive pricing of Indian jeera in the global market has not been sufficient to stimulate overseas demand, keeping export activity subdued. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding China's potential purchases before the arrival of new cumin adds complexity to market dynamics. On the technical front, the market is currently under fresh selling, with a slight gain in open interest by 0.52%, settling at 2922. Jeera is finding support at 43630, and a breach below may lead to a test of 43130. Resistance is anticipated at 44810, and a breakout above could propel prices to 45490.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 43130-45490.
* Jeera dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45863.85 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent

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