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Gold

Gold prices edged up by 0.17% to Rs.76,270, supported by persistent central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and easing monetary policies. Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates aggressively in September and November, the December cut hints at fewer reductions in 2025, with markets pricing in a modest 35-basis-point easing. U.S. inflation data relieved some concerns about the Fed’s rate strategy for next year. Globally, central banks reported robust net gold purchases of 60 tons in October, with India leading with 27 tons, bringing its year-to-date tally to 77 tons - a fivefold increase over 2023. Emerging markets like Turkey and Poland added significantly to their reserves. Gold demand in India remained tepid due to volatile prices, with discounts narrowing to $8 per ounce. High bullion prices are pushing Indian consumers toward lightweight and lower-carat jewelry. Indian gold imports are expected to slow significantly in December. Meanwhile, China's discounts stood at $5 per ounce, while Japan offered premiums of $1.5 per ounce. Gold exports from Switzerland rose in November, driven by increased deliveries to India and China. The market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 1.64% to settle at 12,566 contracts while prices rose Rs.126. Gold has immediate support at Rs.76,120, with further downside potentially testing Rs.75,975. Resistance is now seen at Rs.76,380, and a move above this level could drive prices toward Rs.76,495.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 75975-76495.

* Gold gained as investor focus was on Fed’s rate strategy and President-elect Donald Trump's future tariff policies.

* The Fed persisted with cuts in December but hinted at fewer reductions in 2025.

* A benign U.S. inflation reading eased some concerns about the pace of cuts next year.

Silver

Silver prices rose by 0.23% to Rs.89,326 as softer-than-expected core PCE inflation in November alleviated concerns about overly restrictive U.S. Federal Reserve policies. This boosted sentiment for precious metals despite lingering uncertainties in silver’s industrial demand. The metal underperformed gold, with overcapacity in China’s solar panel industry pressuring photovoltaic companies to regulate supply, potentially capping silver demand. In the U.S., robust new orders for machinery and a rebound in home sales signaled a resilient economy. However, concerns loom over the incoming administration's tariff policies, which could slow momentum in 2025. Globally, the silver deficit is expected to narrow by 4% to 182 million ounces in 2024, with mine supply and recycling up 1% and 5%, respectively. Demand is forecast to rise by 1% to 1.21 billion ounces, driven by record industrial use and recovery in jewelry consumption, offsetting a 16% drop in physical investment. India's silver imports nearly doubled this year due to strong demand from solar and electronics sectors, and investors anticipating higher returns than gold. Imports in the first half of 2024 surged to 4,554 tons from 560 tons in the previous year, highlighting renewed stockpiling by industrial buyers. The market witnessed short covering, with open interest dropping by 1.22% to 32,884 contracts while prices gained Rs.208. Silver has immediate support at Rs.88,915, with further downside testing at Rs.88,510. Resistance is seen at Rs.89,650, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.89,980.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 88510-89980.

* Silver edged higher as markets reconsidered the level of hawkishness expected from the Fed next year.

* Softer than expected core PCE prices in November eased concerns of overly restrictive rates

* New home sales jumped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 units in November.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 1.34% to Rs.5,980, buoyed by a positive market outlook for the short term. The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) shifted its 2025 liquids projection to a draw, supported by optimism over robust U.S. fuel demand and recent data showing a rebound in new home sales and capital goods orders. Meanwhile, China’s Finance Ministry announced increased public spending to stimulate domestic demand growth, further boosting sentiment. However, Sinopec’s annual outlook noted that China’s crude imports and oil consumption could peak as early as 2025 and 2027, respectively. Globally, OPEC+ revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast downward for the fifth consecutive month, citing weakening economic activity in China and North America. The EIA expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million bpd to 104.3 million bpd in 2024, down 300,000 bpd from prior forecasts. U.S. oil demand is projected at 20.5 million bpd for 2024, slightly lower than earlier estimates, while production for 2025 is forecast to average 13.54 million bpd, down from a previous estimate of 13.67 million bpd. The market experienced fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 2.9% to 8,228 contracts while prices gained Rs.79. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs.5,930, with further downside testing at Rs.5,881. Resistance is pegged at Rs.6,020, and a break above this level could lead prices to test Rs.6,061.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5881-6061.

* Crude oil gains buoyed by a slightly positive market outlook for the short term.

* EIA's STEO shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw, despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year.

* China's fiscal stimulus plan supports oil prices

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rallied 4.94% to Rs.297.4 as expectations of stronger global LNG demand and colder U.S. weather bolstered the outlook for higher consumption. The EIA reported a 125 bcf draw in U.S. gas storage for the week ending December 13, marking the fifth consecutive weekly draw and aligning with market expectations. Despite these withdrawals, U.S. storage levels remain 0.6% above last year’s levels and 3.8% above the five-year average. This comes after a robust injection season, which ended with the highest storage levels since 2016 at 3,922 bcf, 6% above the five-year average. Concurrently, geopolitical factors, including the reduced likelihood of Russian gas supplies to Europe, spurred demand for U.S. LNG exports. President-elect Trump’s pledge to issue more LNG export permits further supports this trend, as firms prioritize profitable exports over domestic sales. Additionally, colder weather forecasts for mid-January have driven demand projections higher, with LSEG anticipating U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 124.4 bcfd to 130.2 bcfd next week. The market exhibited fresh buying momentum, with open interest surging by 47.29% to 14,305 contracts as prices increased by Rs.14. Natural gas has immediate support at ?289.8, with further downside potential to Rs.282.1. On the upside, resistance is at Rs.302, and a break above this level could push prices to test ?306.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282.1-306.5.

* Natural gas rose as bets of stronger global LNG demand magnified the outlook of higher domestic consumption.

* Fresh forecasts of a cold front in the US halfway through January drove the industry to raise demand forecasts by 18 billion cubic feet.

* Average gas output rose to 103.1 bcfd so far in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November.

Copper

Copper prices gained 0.38% to Rs.801.65 as market sentiment improved after China announced a record issuance of CNY 3 trillion in special treasury bonds for 2025 to boost economic growth. Additionally, optimism surrounding China's capital markets for 2025 further supported prices. On the supply side, copper inventories in Shanghai warehouses fell to their lowest levels since February, and Peru's October copper production dropped by 1.4% year-on-year. However, global refined copper production exceeded consumption in October, leading to a market surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the first 10 months of 2024. Chinese manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery, and copper imports rose in November to a one-year high of 528,000 tons, a 4.3% increase from October. This was supported by restocking efforts amid declining domestic inventories and price corrections. Meanwhile, Chile's copper output for 2025 is projected to range between 5.4 and 5.6 million tons, while state-run miner Codelco's October production stood at 127,900 metric tons. The market showed fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 6.21% to 8,777 contracts, as prices increased by Rs.3. Copper has immediate support at Rs.798.3, with the next level at Rs.794.8. Resistance is now at Rs.804.4, and a break above this level could push prices toward Rs.807.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 794.8-807.

* Copper gains after Beijing ramped up fiscal support to revive a faltering economy.

* Chinese authorities have agreed to issue CNY 3 trillion in special treasury bonds next year, which would support economic growth.

* The global refined copper market showed a 41,000 metric tons deficit in October, compared with a 136,000 metric tons deficit in September

Zinc

Zinc prices increased by 1.15% to Rs.282, driven by optimism over additional fiscal stimulus in China, including plans to issue $411 billion in special treasury bonds next year. This measure aims to support the world's largest zinc consumer amid signs of economic challenges, including slowing retail sales growth and declining property prices. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell by 20.80% compared to the previous week, indicating tighter supply conditions. Globally, the zinc market faced a deficit of 69,100 metric tons in October, up from 47,000 tons in September, according to ILZSG data. However, the market recorded a surplus of 19,000 tons for the first ten months of 2024, down significantly from 356,000 tons during the same period in 2023. Lower output in key producing regions, including Canada, China, South Africa, and Peru, contributed to a 3.8% decline in global zinc mine production. Refined metal production also fell 1.7% year-on-year due to limited concentrate availability. In November, China's refined zinc production rose marginally by 0.3% month-on-month but declined 12% year-on-year, bringing total production from January to November to 5.6 million metric tons, a 6% year-on-year decrease. The market exhibited fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing by 12.08% to 2,959 contracts. Zinc prices are supported at Rs.280, with a break below targeting Rs.278.1. Resistance lies at Rs.283.1, and a move above could test Rs.284.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.1-284.3.

* Zinc rallied on revived hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in top consumer China.

* Demand prospects in China got further support after Beijing planned to issue $411 billion worth of special treasury bonds next year.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 20.80% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.71% to Rs.241.8, supported by increased withdrawals from LME warehouses, primarily in South Korea, with over 82,000 tons earmarked for delivery. Additionally, China's potential issuance of $411 billion in special treasury bonds next year spurred hopes for economic recovery, lending further support to metal prices. Global refined aluminium market remained in a deficit of 40,300 tons in October, with production at 6.0856 million tons and consumption at 6.1259 million tons. Cumulatively, the first ten months of 2024 recorded a supply shortage of 332,600 tons. Meanwhile, China’s primary aluminium output rose 3.6% YoY in November to 3.71 million metric tons, reflecting capacity additions despite production curbs due to environmental controls. Cumulative production from January to November reached 40.22 million tons, up 4.6% YoY. On the trade front, China exported 5.5 million tons of unwrought aluminium and products in the first ten months of 2024, marking a 17% YoY increase. October exports alone rose 31% YoY to 577,000 tons. Concurrently, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a 30% higher premium of $228 per ton for January-March shipments, reflecting regional supply concerns. Fresh buying interest was evident, with open interest rising by 1.21% to 3,170 contracts. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs.239.7, and a breach below this could test Rs.237.6. Resistance is seen at Rs.243.4, with potential for prices to test Rs.245 if momentum sustains.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 237.6-245.

* Aluminum rose after orders to withdraw stockpiles from LME warehouses rose to the highest since mid-October.

* China’s policymakers are planning to boost bond sales.

* Global refined aluminum market in short supply of 40,300 tons in October.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices declined by 0.26% to Rs.54,240 amid increased global production projections for 2024-25. World cotton output is expected to rise by 1.2 million bales to 117.4 million bales, driven by higher production in India and Argentina. However, India's northern states - Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan - reported a 43% decline in kapas arrivals until November 30, compared to last year, due to farmers holding back stock and raw material shortages for ginners and spinners, especially in Punjab. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintained its cotton consumption estimate for the 2024-25 season at 313 lakh bales of 170 kg each and projected imports to rise significantly to 25 lakh bales, up 9.8 lakh bales from the previous year. By November 30, 9 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports. India's closing stock for 2024-25 is forecasted at 26.44 lakh bales, down from 30.19 lakh bales last year. Globally, the U.S. revised its cotton production estimate upward to 14.3 million bales, while world consumption increased by 570,000 bales due to higher demand from India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. The Cottoncandy market experienced fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 5.78% to 366 contracts. Prices are currently supported at Rs.54,070, with a potential downside to Rs.53,910. Resistance is pegged at Rs.54,520, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.54,810.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 53910-54810.

* Cotton prices dropped as Global cotton production is projected to rise

* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago

* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain – USDA

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25592.95 Rupees dropped by -0.13 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by -1.11% to settle at 13,836 as reports of a favorable crop condition and increased sowing exerted downward pressure. Crop conditions are rated good to excellent with minimal weather disruptions, although the downside was limited by strong buying activity due to low supplies before the arrival of the new crop. Market arrivals rose to 9,030 bags from 7,965 bags in the previous session, with major trading centers like Hingoli and Erode witnessing strong inflows. Acreage is significantly higher this year, with Erode reporting double the sowing compared to last year and Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh estimating 30-35% higher sowing. Overall, sowing has increased from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year to an estimated 3.75-4 lakh hectares. Despite improved acreage, delays in harvesting due to prolonged vegetation growth caused by extended rains may impact the timeline of fresh supplies. Turmeric exports during April-October 2024 rose by 6.57% to 108,879.96 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. October 2024 exports were 15,938.21 tonnes, up 57.22% year-on-year. Imports during April-October 2024 surged by 118.99% to 17,692.28 tonnes, with October imports showing a month-on-month rise of 16.90%. The turmeric market witnessed long liquidation as open interest dropped by -0.67% to settle at 11,160. Prices are supported at 13,756, with further downside potentially testing 13,676. Resistance is expected at 13,968, with prices potentially testing 14,100 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13676-14100.

* Turmeric dropped as turmeric crop is reported to be in good to excellent condition.

* However downside seen limited on strong buying activity amid reports of low supplies till the arrival of new crop.

* In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated harvesting, which is currently at peak levels.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13655.7 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by -0.48% to settle at Rs.23,820 as profit booking followed recent gains. Delayed sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to unfavorable weather conditions has contributed to market volatility. In Gujarat, only 57,915 hectares of jeera have been sown as of November 25, compared to 2.44 lakh hectares during the same period last year, a significant lag of 85%. High temperatures have impacted germination and delayed sowing by 20-25 days. Rajasthan’s jeera cultivation is also estimated to drop by 10-15%.India’s cumin production in 2023-24 was 8.6 lakh tonnes, up from 5.77 lakh tonnes the previous year, but estimates suggest a 10% production drop for the coming season. Global demand remains robust, with Indian cumin priced competitively at $3,050 per tonne, significantly cheaper than Chinese cumin. Tensions in the Middle East and festive demand from Europe have bolstered exports, which rose by 77.37% to 1,35,450.64 tonnes during April-October 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. October 2024 exports stood at 16,257.44 tonnes, marking a 161.04% increase from October 2023. The market witnessed fresh selling as open interest increased by 0.46% to 2,610 contracts while prices dropped by Rs.115. Jeera finds support at Rs.23,660, with a further decline potentially testing Rs.23,510. Resistance is expected at Rs.24,010, and a move above this level could see prices testing Rs.24,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23510-24210.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as sowing has been delayed

* Higher day temperatures in the past few weeks has impacted the seeding of jeera and has also led to poor germination in various places.

* In Gujarat, jeera sowing has taken place in only 57,915 hectares till November 25 during the rabi 2024-25 cropping season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24273.4 Rupees dropped by -0.28 percent.

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