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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to trade higher amid growing prospects of loose monetary policy from major central banks. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and tension between Russia and Ukraine would enhance the safe appeal. Further, resumption of gold purchase by China to counter the impact of trade tariff concerns would provide support the bullions. Further, increasing chance of December rate cut by Fed would help the gold prices to move towards $2700. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards this week’s key inflation numbers which could give further clarity on central banks next move.

* Spot gold is likely to hold the support of 20 day EMA $2645 and move towards $2680. Above $2680 it would rally towards $2700. MCX Gold February is expected to hold above the 20 day EMA at 76840 and extend its rally towards 77,800.

* MCX Silver March is expected to move towards 96,200, as long as it holds above 94,000

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to move higher as China stimulus boosts demand hopes. Latest measures from China indicates a more pro active policy measure to counter the sluggish growth in the economy. Further, year end demand and steady spot premiums would provide support to the yellow metal. Prices may also find support on expectation of improved trade balance numbers and loan growth from China.

* MCX Copper December is expected to hold its gains and move towards 840, as long as it holds above 20 day EMA 818. Reversal in the oscillator would also indicates an upward movement in the red metal.

* Aluminum is expected to hold the support of 20 day EMA at 242 and move towards 246 amid higher global premiums and supply concerns from China.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to face the hurdle near $69 and move lower towards $66.50 amid improving oil supply scenario. While, escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and concerns in Syria could provide some support to oil prices. Further, hopes of fresh round of stimulus from China could boost oil demand and help the oil prices to trade above $66.50.

* On the data front, closer of OI in ITM call strikes indicates a short term rebound in price. But higher OI concentration near 70 call strike would act as major resistance. Further, a bearish cross over of 20 and 50 day EMA indicates price to face the hurdle near $69 and move towards $66.5. MCX Crude oil December is likely to face the hurdle near 5900 and move lower towards 5700.

* MCX Natural gas December future is expected to dip towards the 20 day EMA 258, as long as it trades under 276.

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