Jeera trading range for the day is 22470-23330 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold tumbled 3.73% to settle at Rs1,52,836, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and upbeat labor market data that dampened hopes for early Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. job growth surprised to the upside in January, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer. Although markets still anticipate at least two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, near-term easing bets have been pared back. In contrast, central bank demand from China remained supportive. The People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to a 15th straight month, lifting gold holdings to 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January. The value of its reserves rose sharply as prices climbed. Retail dynamics were mixed across Asia. In India, premiums more than halved from recent highs as volatility curbed buying interest. Meanwhile, demand improved in China ahead of the Lunar New Year, with local premiums ticking higher. China’s full-year data showed stable production growth and strong investment demand, particularly in gold bars, coins, and ETFs, even as jewelry consumption declined. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 1.33% to 7,914 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,48,935, with a break potentially testing Rs1,45,035. Resistance stands at Rs1,57,740; a move above could open the path toward Rs1,62,645.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 145035-162645.
* Gold fell as strong US jobs data boosted the dollar and lowered rate cut expectations.
* US job growth accelerated unexpectedly in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.
* China's central bank extended its gold buying spree for a 15th month in January.
Silver
Silver plunged 10.11% to settle at Rs2,36,435, as stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data sharply reduced hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, underscoring the resilience of the job market and pushing Treasury yields higher. Markets have now shifted expectations for the next rate cut to July from June. Comments from Fed officials reinforced the cautious stance. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that any further easing would require clear signs of labor market deterioration, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled that rates could remain on hold for an extended period as policymakers assess incoming data. Despite the steep price correction, physical market fundamentals remain relatively tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to near decade lows, with stocks dropping to around 318.5 tonnes as of early February—more than 88% below their 2021 peak. Meanwhile, London vault holdings edged down 0.3% month-on-month to 27,729 tonnes at the end of January. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest unchanged at 6,252 lots despite the sharp decline in prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs2,26,515, with a break potentially testing Rs2,16,590. On the upside, resistance stands at Rs 2,54,570, and a rebound above this level could target Rs 2,72,700.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 216590-272700.
* Silver dropped after stronger-than-expected US labor market data dampened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130K in January, more than double consensus forecasts and a sharp acceleration from December.
* Silver inventories stood at 318.546 tonnes as of Feb 9, 2026, down from 349.900 tonnes reported on Feb 6, 2026, CEIC data.
Crude oil
Crude oil fell sharply by 3.56% to settle at Rs5,686, as traders reacted to the International Energy Agency’s softer demand outlook and projections of a sizeable supply surplus. The IEA trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, warning that higher prices are weighing on consumption. It now sees a surplus of around 3.73 million barrels per day next year, largely driven by rising output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. OPEC data showed Russia’s production edged down by about 58,000 bpd in January to 9.246 million bpd, while Kazakhstan recorded a steeper drop. Overall, OPEC+ output declined by 439,000 bpd last month. However, supply concerns linked to potential U.S.-Iran tensions offered limited support. U.S. inventory data added further pressure. The EIA reported an 8.5 million barrel build in crude stocks, far above expectations, alongside a rise in gasoline inventories. Distillate stocks declined, but refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%, and net crude imports increased. Meanwhile, U.S. production is projected to ease slightly after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 20.84% to 9,990 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs5,606, with a break potentially testing Rs5,526. Resistance stands at Rs5,835, and a rebound above this level could push prices toward Rs5,984.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5526-5984.
* Crude oil prices slipped as investors weighed the IEA’s lowering of its global oil demand forecast for 2026.
* OPEC forecast world oil demand for crude from the wider OPEC+ producer group will drop by 400,000 bpd in Q2.
* World demand for OPEC+ crude will average 42.20 mbpd in Q2, down from 42.60 mbpd in the Q1.
Natural gas
Natural gas rose 1.98% to settle at Rs294.2, supported mainly by near-record flows to LNG export terminals. The uptick came even as weather forecasts turned milder and demand expectations for next week were revised lower. Meteorologists expect temperatures across most of the U.S. to remain warmer than normal through February 26, which could limit heating demand after the recent Arctic blast. Production remains robust. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 107.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, though still below December’s record 109.7 bcfd. According to LSEG, total demand, including exports, is projected to ease from 141.2 bcfd this week to 124.6 bcfd next week. Storage data reflects the recent cold snap. Utilities withdrew a record 360 bcf for the week ended January 30, sharply higher than both last year’s draw and the five-year average. Inventories now stand at 2.463 tcf, slightly below the seasonal norm. Looking ahead, the EIA expects U.S. gas production to climb to a record 110 bcfd in 2026, while domestic demand remains broadly steady. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest down 6.79% to 14,591 lots. Support is seen at Rs288.2, with a break toward Rs282.1. Resistance stands at Rs300.7; a move above could target Rs307.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282.1-307.1.
* Natural gas edged up on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.
* That small price increase came despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.
* U.S. natural gas production to average 120.7 bcf/day in February vs 117.1 bcf/day in January – EIA
Copper
Copper dropped 3.33% to settle at Rs1,206.3, as profit-taking and rising inventories outweighed support from supply disruptions and a softer dollar. Buying interest from China eased ahead of the Lunar New Year, adding to near-term pressure. On the supply side, mine output remains constrained. Chile’s Collahuasi and Escondida mines reported year-on-year production declines of 12.1% and 16.5% respectively in December, while Peru’s November output fell 11.2%. Despite this, exchange inventories have been building. LME stocks climbed to 189,100 tons, their highest since May, SHFE inventories rose to 248,911 tons, and Comex holdings remain at record highs. Fundamentally, the broader market still shows signs of surplus. The International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton global surplus in November, with refined output exceeding consumption. China’s unwrought copper imports fell 6.4% in 2025 to the lowest level since 2020, reflecting high prices and softer demand. However, refined copper production in China rose strongly, and concentrate imports hit record highs, highlighting active smelting activity. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.35% to 16,242 lots. Immediate support is seen at ?1,185.8, with a break potentially testing Rs1,165.4. Resistance stands at Rs1,242.8, and a move above could push prices toward ?1,279.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1165.4-1279.4.
* Copper dropped on profit booking after dollar gained amid stronger-than-expected US labor market data
* Investors bet on rising demand from global manufacturing, the green transition, and AI, while constrained mine output supports prices.
* Goldman Sachs estimates the copper market faced a surplus of 600,000 tons last year, though prices still reached record highs earlier in 2026.
Zinc
Zinc prices slipped 1.7% to settle at 323.35, largely due to profit booking after the recent rally driven by tight supply concerns. While mined output rose 6.3% last year, refined production is estimated to have fallen 2%, reflecting smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Toho Zinc Annaka plant. Treatment charges have rebounded sharply toward $105 per tonne after being heavily depleted earlier in the year, signaling some easing in concentrate tightness. Support for zinc continues to come from expectations that electrification and data center investments will sustain industrial metals demand. However, near-term consumption has softened as Chinese buyers completed pre–Lunar New Year restocking. Seasonal shutdowns at mines in Southwest and Central China are expected to trim concentrate supply by over 2,000 tonnes combined. At the same time, China has turned a net exporter of refined zinc, shipping 78,500 tonnes in the fourth quarter, while domestic production hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year. Globally, the zinc market showed a modest 7,700-tonne deficit in November, though it remains in surplus for the year overall. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 22.13%. Zinc finds support at 319.2, with further downside toward 315.1. Resistance stands at 329.2, and a break above could push prices toward 335.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 315.1-335.1.
* Zinc prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid persistent concerns of tight supply.
* Goldman Sachs expects small global zinc surplus in 2026
* Refined zinc production was on track to fall 2% last year, per the latest data, despite the 6.3% jump in mined output
Aluminium
Aluminium prices slipped 1.96% to settle at 307.7, as traders locked in profits following mixed U.S. economic data, with strong non-farm payrolls offset by softer jobless claims figures. Still, losses were limited by tightening supply conditions. South32 Ltd. confirmed it plans to mothball its Mozal smelter in Mozambique next month, highlighting growing supply constraints. In China, smelters are operating close to the government’s capacity cap, while steep U.S. tariffs have reduced imports and pushed up domestic prices for manufacturers. Global demand remains firm. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per ton, citing low inventories and power supply concerns in Indonesia. However, rising post–Lunar New Year inventories in China could cap further gains, with social stockpiles expected to reach a three-year high. China’s aluminium production hit a record 3.87 million tons in December, up 2.9% year-on-year, bringing full-year output to over 45 million tons. Manufacturing activity also improved, with the January PMI climbing to 50.3. Globally, December primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year-on-year, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 6.44%. Aluminium finds support at 303, with a break below exposing 298.3. Resistance is seen at 313.9, and a move higher could target 320.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 298.3-320.1.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after investors compared strong non-farm payrolls numbers with jobless claims data.
* China’s refined aluminium production maintained a steady trajectory in December 2025, reaching a record 3.87 million tons, up 2.9% yoy.
* Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices fell 2.25% to settle at 15,356, pressured by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next two weeks. Sentiment also weakened as acreage expanded on the back of favourable rains this sowing season. For 2025–26, turmeric area is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is seen at 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both farmers and stockists are holding lower inventories, offering a cushion ahead of peak new crop supplies. Weather-related issues, including waterlogging and disease in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, have affected yields in some regions, with losses of 15–20% reported in pockets of Marathwada. Quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risks persist in low-lying areas. Export demand remains encouraging. Shipments during April–November 2025 rose 4.88% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 44.5%, tightening overall availability. In Nizamabad, prices eased 1.24% to 15,771 rupees. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 1.11%. Support is seen at 14,916, with a break below opening the door to 14,474. Resistance stands at 15,800, and a move above could push prices toward 16,242.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14474-16242.
* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15771 Rupees dropped by -1.24 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged lower by 0.17% to settle at 22,955 as new crop arrivals began trickling into select markets. Supplies are expected to pick up more meaningfully from March, which has weighed on sentiment. Comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand have also kept a lid on prices. However, the downside remains limited due to delayed sowing and weather-related challenges, particularly in Gujarat, where acreage has dropped 14.34% year-on-year to 408,199 hectares. At Unjha, arrivals remain thin and premium-quality cumin continues to command higher rates. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive. Although geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have tightened global supplies, Indian exports have not seen a corresponding surge. Overall exports during April–November 2025 fell 10.3% year-on-year, despite a strong November showing. Production this season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, reflecting reduced sowing in key regions. Meanwhile, farmers are holding around 20 lakh bags, with significant carry-forward stocks expected. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.51%. Support is seen at 22,710, with further downside toward 22,470. Resistance stands at 23,140, and a move above this level could push prices to 23,330.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22470-23330.
* Jeera settled down as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22988.4 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.
