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Gold

Gold prices declined in the previous session, settling 1.15% lower at Rs.1,59,673, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on bullion. The greenback gained amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has entered its sixth day. Reports of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, along with retaliatory missile attacks by Tehran on regional energy infrastructure, have kept markets on edge. In addition, the U.S. Treasury confirmed that a 15% global tariff will come into effect this week, adding further uncertainty to global trade dynamics. On the demand side, China’s gold imports through Hong Kong increased significantly. Net imports rose 68.7% month-on-month in January to 20.58 tonnes, while total imports climbed 30.4% to 36.54 tonnes. China’s central bank also extended its gold-buying streak for a 15th consecutive month, reinforcing long-term demand. Physical demand in China strengthened after the Lunar New Year, with gold trading at premiums of $12–$13 per ounce over global prices. In contrast, demand in India softened as rising prices pushed discounts to as much as $65 per ounce, the deepest in ten months. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.75% to 7,894 lots while prices dropped by Rs.1,852. Gold is currently finding support near Rs.1,58,210, with the next downside level around Rs.1,56,745. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1,62,140, and a breakout above this could push prices toward Rs.1,64,605.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 156745-164605.

* Gold dropped as dollar gains as the fallout from the Middle East conflict kept investors on edge.

* The conflict entered a sixth day, with US and Israeli forces striking targets across Iran and Tehran retaliating with missile attacks.

* Treasury Secretary confirmed a global 15% tariff will begin this week and may revert within five months.

Silver

Silver prices slipped in the previous session, settling 1.27% lower at Rs.2,62,191, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on precious metals. The dollar index climbed to around 99.1, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions following the escalating conflict involving Iran. The ongoing U.S.–Israeli military campaign against Iran has entered its sixth day, raising concerns about a prolonged confrontation and keeping global markets cautious. Reports of a U.S. submarine sinking an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka added to the tension, while conflicting reports about possible peace talks between Iranian operatives and the U.S. added further uncertainty. At the same time, the U.S. administration confirmed that a 15% global tariff announced by President Donald Trump is expected to come into effect later this week. On the supply side, the global physical silver market continues to show signs of tightening. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have dropped to around 350 tonnes, their lowest level in nearly a decade and sharply lower than the over 3,000 tonnes recorded in early 2021. Data also showed exchange inventories at 318.5 tonnes as of February 9, 2026, reflecting a significant drawdown in China’s available stocks. Meanwhile, London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower than the previous month. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.77% to 6,349 lots while prices fell by Rs.3,369. Silver is currently finding support near Rs.2,55,370, with the next downside level around Rs.2,48,550. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.2,71,630, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.2,81,070.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 248550-281070.

* Silver dropped as dollar index rose to 99.1, as the escalating conflict with Iran revived safe-haven demand.

* The US-Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, keeping markets on edge over the potential for further escalation.

* The silver market is expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged in the previous session, settling 5.46% higher at Rs.7,316, as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions. The ongoing conflict in the region has intensified investor anxiety, particularly with disruptions reported in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. China has also reportedly directed its major refiners to halt exports of diesel and gasoline, adding to concerns about tighter global fuel availability. Although measures such as vessel insurance proposals and naval escorts have been discussed to stabilize shipping activity, markets remain cautious amid fears of prolonged geopolitical instability. Supply-side developments have also drawn attention. Data from Kpler indicated that Saudi Arabia loaded around 10 million barrels of crude from Al-Muajjiz in the first four days of March, suggesting a potential pace of 2.5 million barrels per day if maintained. Meanwhile, tanker movements in the Red Sea signal early signs of vessel repositioning despite the elevated risk in the region. U.S. inventory data showed crude stocks rising by 3.48 million barrels to 439.3 million barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 6.68% to 15,789 lots while prices gained Rs.379. Crude oil is currently finding support near Rs.7,011, with further downside support around Rs.6,707. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.7,486, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs.7,657.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6707-7657.

* Crude oil gains as the Middle East conflict disrupts global oil supplies.

* Iraq has decreased oil production from the Rumaila oil field by 700,000 bpd

* Saudi crude exports via east-west pipeline hit record pace, tanker repositioning underway

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher in the previous session, settling 0.44% up at Rs.273.6, supported by strong LNG export demand and rising global energy prices. Market sentiment remained cautious as geopolitical tensions intensified following the widening U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Reports of a U.S. strike on an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka added to the uncertainty, while disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns over potential supply interruptions for both oil and gas. Adding to the supply worries, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on certain LNG shipments after attacks on production facilities, which further tightened the global supply outlook. In the United States, natural gas production remains robust. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged about 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, slightly below the record 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. However, demand is expected to ease in the near term, with projections showing total consumption, including exports, falling from 123.3 bcfd this week to 112.7 bcfd next week. Storage data also provided some support, with U.S. inventories declining by 52 billion cubic feet in the latest week to 2.018 trillion cubic feet, slightly above market expectations. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 22.33% to 26,791 lots while prices gained Rs.1.2. Natural gas is currently finding support near Rs.269.4, with further downside support around Rs.265.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.277.6, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs.281.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.2-281.6.

* Natural gas jumped on near-record LNG exports

* Support also seen amid a rise in global energy prices amid supply disruptions as U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened.

* QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on shipments ofLNG, after attacks on its production facilities

Copper

Copper prices declined in the previous session, settling 1.19% lower at Rs.1,194.85, as a sharp increase in exchange inventories weighed on sentiment. Stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in the United States surged by 44%, driven by large inflows into storage facilities in New Orleans and Baltimore. Globally, total LME copper inventories have risen to 282,200 tonnes, the highest level since October 2024. The rise reflects a shift in storage preference as LME copper currently trades at a premium to Comex prices, encouraging traders to move metal into LME warehouses. In China, the world’s largest copper consumer, policymakers set a relatively modest economic growth target of 4.5–5%, highlighting ongoing concerns about deflationary pressures and higher U.S. tariffs. However, some downside in prices was limited after stronger-than-expected private factory data signaled resilience in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, supply disruptions have emerged in Africa after flooding in the Democratic Republic of Congo damaged a key copper export route, potentially affecting shipments from the region. On the global supply front, production declines were reported at several major mines, including Collahuasi and Escondida in Chile, while Peru’s copper output also fell 11.2% year-on-year in November. Technically, the market is seeing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.57% to 16,351 lots while prices dropped by Rs.14.45. Copper is currently finding support near Rs.1,187.7, with the next downside level around Rs.1,180.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1,206, and a break above this could push prices toward Rs.1,216.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1180.3-1216.9.

* Copper prices dropped as LME copper stocks in US jump 44% as higher prices attract metal

* Total LME copper stocks around the world have risen to 282,200 tons, the most since October 2024

* In China, the government set a softer economic growth target of 4.5%–5% as policymakers grapple with persistent deflationary pressures.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined in the previous session, settling 2% lower at Rs.321.3, as a stronger U.S. dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment. The ongoing U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, increasing uncertainty in global markets and raising concerns about potential disruptions to manufacturing demand. At the same time, China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5–5%, slightly below last year’s pace, signaling a cautious outlook as policymakers navigate deflationary pressures and trade challenges. Despite the drop in prices, downside remained somewhat limited due to persistent supply concerns. Several mine disruptions and production delays have kept the broader supply outlook tight. For instance, a zinc mine in southwest China temporarily suspended operations in early February and is expected to resume in early March, which could reduce zinc concentrate output by about 1,000 tonnes.  According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global zinc market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, while refined demand increased 1.9% to 13.86 million tonnes. However, higher production and concentrate destocking could push the market into a small surplus this year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.05% to 3,981 lots while prices fell by Rs.6.55. Zinc is currently finding support near Rs.317.7, with further downside support around Rs.314.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.327.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.334.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 314.1-334.3.

* Zinc fell as the dollar strengthened amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

* China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 44.8%.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged slightly higher in the previous session, settling 0.11% up at Rs.330.6, supported by growing supply concerns linked to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Production disruptions added to the bullish sentiment after Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) declared force majeure on shipments, raising fears of tighter global supply. The Middle East accounts for roughly 8–9% of global aluminium capacity, and the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has increased the risk of further disruptions, particularly around shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply worries were reinforced by falling inventories. LME aluminium stocks dropped to 459,125 tonnes, the lowest level since July last year, following fresh outflows from Port Klang in Malaysia. Reports that traders have requested the removal of more than 45,000 tonnes from the same location suggest tightening availability in the physical market. Analysts remain broadly optimistic about the metal’s outlook. Citi raised its aluminium price target to $3,600 per tonne, with a potential $4,000 bull-case scenario, while Morgan Stanley expects prices could reach $3,700 in 2026 amid constrained supply and steady demand. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.25% to 4,596 lots while prices rose marginally. Aluminium has immediate support near Rs.327.8, with further support at Rs.324.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.335, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.339.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.8-339.2.

* Aluminium gains as force majeures from Mideast smelters Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain heightened supply fears.

* LME aluminium inventories fell to 459,125 tons, the lowest since July last year, after 2,000 tons of outflows from Port Klang.

* Citi have raised their LME aluminium price target to $3,600 from $3,400 and said prices could climb to $4,000 in a bull-case scenario.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 3.02% up at Rs.15,016, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Market sentiment has improved as both farmers and stockists are reported to be holding limited inventories, creating a supportive base for prices ahead of the arrival of the new crop. Crop conditions in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been impacted by untimely rains, affecting yields in several pockets. At the all-India level, dried turmeric production is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks have restricted the overall increase in supply. However, the upside could remain limited in the near term as fresh arrivals, particularly from Erode, are expected to rise significantly over the next couple of weeks. Higher acreage is also adding to supply expectations, with turmeric area for the 2025–26 season estimated at about 3.02 lakh hectares, up roughly 4% year-on-year, while fresh output is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Despite localized yield losses due to waterlogging and disease in parts of Marathwada, Maharashtra’s production is still expected to increase to around 54 lakh bags.  From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.75% to 18,285 lots while prices gained Rs.440. Turmeric is currently finding support near Rs.14,590, with a further downside cushion around Rs.14,162. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs.15,256, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs.15,494.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14162-15494.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market ahead of the new crop supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15235.25 Rupees dropped by -3.79 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved higher in the last session, settling 2.24% up at Rs.22,185, supported by tighter supply expectations and lower sowing across key producing regions. In Gujarat, sowing has declined 14.34% year-on-year to about 4.08 lakh hectares, compared with 4.76 lakh hectares last season, raising concerns about the upcoming crop size. Current estimates suggest India’s 2026 cumin production could fall to around 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Crop risks have also increased as reports of aphid infestation have emerged from several growing regions in Rajasthan. Despite these supportive factors, the upside may remain limited as new crop arrivals have started in some mandis, with supplies expected to increase steadily from March. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export demand are also weighing on market sentiment. Export shipments during April–December 2025 declined by about 12% to 1.45 lakh tonnes, compared with 1.65 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. While demand from Gulf countries and China has shown slight improvement, buyers remain highly price-sensitive. Farmers are still estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags, although only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving substantial carry-forward stocks. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 14.03% to 2,829 lots while prices gained Rs.485. Jeera is currently finding support near Rs.21,760, with a further downside level around Rs.21,340. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs.22,450, and a sustained move above this could push prices towards Rs.22,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21340-22720.

* Jeera gained as Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

* Rising risks of Aphid infestation have been reported across key growing regions in Rajasthan.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21828.05 Rupees dropped by -0.47 percent.

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