Spot gold is expected to find a floor near $5,000 per ounce and trend back toward $5,200 amid safe-haven buying - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to find a floor near $5,000 per ounce and trend back toward $5,200 amid safe-haven buying. Escalating tensions between US and Iran will continue to provide key support for prices. However, a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields may weigh on gains. Better-than-expected US economic data and rising inflation expectations have dampened odds for Fed rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool currently reflects a strong market consensus for "higher-for-longer" stance in the immediate term, with a notable shift in expectations for the latter half of 2026. Market focus today remains on the US Non-farm Payroll (NFP) report, which will offer further clarity on the health of the economy.
* MCX Gold April is expected to find the floor near Rs.158,000 and move higher towards Rs.164,000.
* MCX Silver May is expected to move higher towards Rs.270,000 as long as it holds above Rs.257,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade lower as risk-off sentiment permeates global markets. Sluggish demand from Chinese buyers and a steady build-up of domestic inventories are likely to weigh on prices. In China, government has set a softer economic growth target of 4.5%–5% as policymakers grapple with persistent deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs. Investors are now eyeing the weekly SHFE inventory data and key US economic figures for further market clarity.
* MCX Copper March is expected to move towards Rs.1180 as long as it trades under Rs.1215 level. A move below Rs.1180 it would turn bearish towards Rs.1170.
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs.327 and rise towards Rs.335 level. A move above Rs.335 it would rise towards Rs.340.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs.326 level and move lower towards Rs.318 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is hovering below $80 per barrel, erasing previous gains as Trump administration signals it is exploring options to curb surging fuel prices fueled by the conflict in Iran. Potential measures include releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), granting waivers on fuel-blending requirements, and authorizing US Treasury to trade oil futures. However, escalating Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to limit the downside.
* We expect prices to face resistance near $82 and potentially retreat toward $78 following this week’s rally of nearly 18%. MCX Crude oil March is likely to move in the broad range of Rs.6900 and Rs.7400. Only close below Rs.6900 it would turn weak.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to hold support near Rs.268 and rise towards Rs.278.
.
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
