Jeera trading range for the day is 21370-22030 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices eased, settling 0.27% lower at 123854, as investors awaited fresh cues from upcoming US economic data including September retail sales, PPI, and weekly jobless claims. Market sentiment remains divided on the Federal Reserve’s next move, though expectations for a December 25 bps rate cut have strengthened after Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further easing. Markets now price in a 69% probability of a rate cut, sharply higher than last week’s 40% following strong jobs data. Despite the recent correction, bullion remains up around 55% for the year, supported by geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying. Comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who expressed caution over frontloading rate cuts due to sticky inflation, added to macro uncertainty. September Nonfarm Payrolls rose 119,000, beating expectations, though August was sharply revised lower. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.Physical gold demand across Asia stayed subdued amid price volatility. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $21/oz, narrower than last week but still reflecting weak demand, while Chinese markets saw par to $5/oz discounts. Swiss gold exports fell 11% in October due to softer Chinese offtake. Gold is under long liquidation with open interest down 2.54% to 9,031. Support is at 122955, then 122055, while resistance lies at 124405, above which 124955 may be tested.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 122055-124955.
* Gold prices dropped as investors awaited more US economic data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
* Attention will mainly be on September's retail sales and PPI figures due on Tuesday, along with weekly jobless claims on Wednesday.
* Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold by 15,384 contracts to 133,927 contracts.
Silver
Silver futures closed slightly higher, settling 0.21% up at 154482, supported by rising expectations of a US rate cut in December after dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials. However, mixed macroeconomic signals continued to cloud market sentiment. The delayed US nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger job growth in September, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four-year high. Fed officials expressed differing views, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee remaining uneasy about front-loading cuts, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled hesitance toward lowering rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Silver is still on track for over 1% weekly losses. According to the LBMA, silver inventories in London vaults climbed 6.8% in October to 26,255 tonnes, aided by large inflows from the US and China that eased a severe liquidity squeeze. Meanwhile, 1,568 tonnes exited Comex warehouses amid tariff-related uncertainty, although overall stocks remain higher year-on-year. Silver-backed ETP holdings have surged 18% year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns over stagflation, US fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions. However, global silver demand for 2025 is projected to fall 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, led by declines in industrial, jewelry, and bar-coin categories. Industrial demand is expected to drop 2%, while jewelry consumption may fall 4% due to record local prices in India. The market is witnessing short covering with open interest down 4.99% to 10,338. Support is placed at 153030, then 151585, while resistance is at 155305, above which 156135 may be tested.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 151585-156135.
* Silver gains as expectations for a US interest rate cut next month increased after dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials.
* Fed's Goolsbee repeats he is uneasy on rate cuts
* Fed's Collins: Monetary policy currently in right place, hesitant about cutting rates
Crude oil
Crude oil prices inched higher, settling 0.73% up at 5235, supported by a strong rally on Wall Street that boosted expectations of improved economic momentum and higher energy demand. Optimism surrounding a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut also added bullish sentiment. This rebound came despite geopolitical developments that could weigh on prices, including progress on a U.S.-backed peace proposal aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine conflict. If successful, such an agreement could eventually ease sanctions on Russian oil and bring additional supply to a market already expected to face a surplus in 2026. Goldman Sachs reiterated its view of a multi-year bearish outlook, citing a persistent supply wave, though it noted Brent could temporarily rise above $70 if Russian output declines more sharply. In the U.S., supply data showed mixed signals. EIA reported a 6.4-million-barrel rise in crude inventories for the week ending Nov 7 but also noted a subsequent 3.426-million-barrel draw for the week ending Nov 14. Cushing stocks fell by 698,000 barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories saw moderate increases. Technical Outlook: Crude oil remains under short covering, with open interest down 1.55% to 15,914. Support lies at 5173, then 5110, while resistance is placed at 5270, with potential to test 5304 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5110-5304.
* Crude oil surged supported by positive economic outlook and more demand growth, spurred by expectations of a rate cut by Fed.
* Speculators significantly increased their net short positions in WTI crude oil by 33,023 contracts, bringing net short positions to 42,487 contracts.
* Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said, citing a supply wave that keeps the market in surplus.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices fell sharply, settling 2.8% lower at 403.4, pressured by near-record production and comfortable storage levels despite strong LNG flows and expectations of colder weather ahead. Output in the Lower 48 continues to surge, with LSEG reporting 109.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and surpassing the previous monthly record of 108.3 bcfd in August. Weather-related demand is expected to rise moderately, with forecasts calling for generally warmer-than-normal conditions through December 6 but pockets of colder weather around Nov 28–29 and Dec 3–5. LSEG projects total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to increase from 118.8 bcfd this week to 119.7 bcfd next week and further to 131.3 bcfd in the following week. The EIA reported a 14 bcf withdrawal for the week ended Nov 14, in line with expectations and contrasting sharply with last year’s injection and the five-year average build. Despite this draw, inventories remain comfortably supplied due to this year’s record output. The EIA’s STEO forecasts both production and consumption reaching new highs in 2025, with dry gas output projected at 107.1 bcfd and LNG exports rising to 14.7 bcfd next year, extending to 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Natural gas remains under long liquidation, with open interest collapsing 79.7% to 877. Immediate support is at 397.4, followed by 391.3. Resistance is seen at 409.1, and a breakout could lift prices toward 414.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 391.3-414.7.
* Natural gas slid on near-record output and ample amounts of gas in storage.
* However, near-historic flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for colder weather limited the downside.
* Speculators in the four major NYMEX and ICE natural gas markets increased their net long positions by 866 contracts, reaching 241,467 contracts.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled 0.39% lower at 999.15 as funds booked profits on long positions, though sentiment stayed supported by expectations of a U.S. rate cut next month and a weaker dollar. Traders also awaited China’s industrial production data for clearer demand cues, given that the country accounts for more than half of global primary copper consumption. Downside remained limited amid tightening supply signals, with Chile’s Codelco proposing a record $330/ton premium for shipments to South Korea, slightly higher than the $325/ton offered to European buyers. Meanwhile, global supply concerns persisted, even as Freeport-McMoRan reaffirmed plans to resume production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by July 2026, following September’s deadly pit-flooding incident. In China, copper cathode imports fell sharply to 279,944 tons in October, down 22.1% YoY and 15.7% MoM, reflecting weaker inbound demand. China’s refined copper output rose 8.9% YoY in October but dropped 4.9% MoM to a two-month low, while the global refined copper market recorded a 51,000-ton deficit in September versus a 41,000-ton surplus a month earlier, ICSG data showed. Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2025 price forecast to $10,610/ton, maintaining a long-term bullish view with prices seen rising to $15,000/ton by 2035 on tightening resources and accelerating demand. The market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 20.46% to 3204. Support is at 997.5, with further weakness likely toward 995.8. Resistance is at 1001.9, and a breakout could take prices to 1004.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 995.8-1004.6.
* Copper prices slipped as funds took profits on long positions despite expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts next month.
* Freeport McMoRan recently said it plans to resume production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by July 2026.
* Speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper by 8,536 contracts to 58,648 contracts.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled 0.88% lower at 303.55 as rising inventories in LME-registered warehouses eased supply concerns. Stocks climbed to 47,425 tons, a sharp 40% increase since the start of November, although the $135/ton cash-to-three-month premium remains elevated, indicating continued tightness in the spot market. Globally, the zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, ILZSG data showed. For the first nine months of 2025, the global refined market recorded a 120,000-ton surplus, up from 107,000 tons a year earlier. Weaker economic indicators from China added downside pressure, dampening demand expectations, while fading hopes of another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut reduced broader market support. LME stocks remain near their lowest since February 2023 at 35,875 tons, and SHFE-monitored inventories declined 0.54% from last Friday. Supply dynamics remain mixed: global refined zinc output is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025, yet inventories outside China remain extremely tight. China’s refined zinc exports surged in October to 8,519 tons, up 243.8% MoM, as smelters redirected material overseas amid weak domestic demand. Domestic zinc output reached a record 665,000 tons in October despite the ongoing property sector slowdown. September refined zinc production fell 4% MoM but rose over 20% YoY, with cumulative January–September output up nearly 9% YoY. The market is under long liquidation, with open interest plunging 45.3% to 1186. Support is at 298.9, with deeper weakness toward 294.2. Resistance stands at 307.6, and a break above may lift prices toward 311.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 294.2-311.6.
* Zinc dropped as rising zinc stocks in LME registered warehouses, at 47,425 tons for a gain of 40% since the start of November.
* However, the premium for cash zinc contract over the three-month at around $135 a ton is still elevated.
* The global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled 0.47% higher at 267.4, supported by growing expectations of a December U.S. rate cut after dovish comments from central bank officials. Prices also benefited from concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity ceilings, limiting production growth at a time when demand prospects are improving. Additional support came from ongoing global supply worries, including refinery disruptions and smelter curtailments. Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% YoY to 6.294 million tonnes, according to IAI data. However, October primary output at 3.8 million tonnes was down 9% MoM, reflecting constrained supply conditions. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s three major ports dropped 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes, while SHFE-monitored inventories rose 7.67% from last Friday, highlighting mixed inventory signals. China continued to emphasize preventing overcapacity to curb deflationary pressures, while fresh economic support measures and a smoother U.S. government reopening also aided sentiment. On the supply front, disruptions added to tightness: one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter was suspended due to equipment failure, Alcoa confirmed the shutdown of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, and Century Aluminium cut production by two-thirds at its Iceland smelter. The market is in short covering, with open interest falling 38.52% to 940 while prices gained 1.25 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 265.5, with downside potential to 263.5. Resistance is at 269, and a breakout could lift prices toward 270.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.5-270.5.
* Aluminium prices rose supported by growing prospects of a December U.S. rate cut following dovish signals from central bank officials.
* Prices also gained supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.
* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes – IAI
Turmeric
Turmeric futures ended the previous session on a strong note, settling 1.25% higher at 14144, supported by weather-related supply concerns across key producing states. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Nanded have damaged standing crops, with Nanded alone reporting around 15% area loss. Continuous rainfall in Erode has led to disease outbreaks, while excessive humidity is making storage difficult, tightening near-term availability. Farmers’ stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days, adding to the firmness in physical markets. Market activity is robust at Duggirala, where fresh crop arrivals continue to attract strong buying, consistently fetching higher prices due to better quality. Daily inflows remain active at 1,000–1,120 bags, and nearly 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded. Despite this, upside remains capped as favourable monsoon conditions have encouraged higher sowing. Preliminary estimates indicate that turmeric acreage may rise 15–20%, with the 2024–25 season already reporting 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. On the trade front, turmeric exports for Apr–Sep 2025 increased 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, while September shipments rose 7.59% YoY, though slightly lower compared to August 2025. The market is witnessing short covering with open interest down 0.38% at 10,360. Immediate support lies at 13964, followed by 13782, while resistance is placed at 14264, above which 14382 may be tested.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13782-14382.
* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* Also, due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.
* Support also seen as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14686.5 Rupees gained by 0.05 percent.
Jeera
Jeera futures closed marginally higher, settling 0.16% up at 21745, supported by delayed sowing and weather-related disruptions across major producing regions. Gujarat is witnessing one of its slowest sowing seasons in recent years as uneven rainfall has left fields unprepared. Low arrivals at the Unjha market are keeping good-quality cumin firm, though upside remains capped due to comfortable domestic supplies and subdued export interest. Farmers still hold nearly 20 lakh bags, while only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season end, leaving a sizeable 16 lakh bags carry-forward stock, which is pressuring sentiment. Demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive. Logistical constraints in India and the Middle East, along with geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, have limited global supply, yet Indian exports remain muted. For 2025, India’s cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 declined 14.51% to 101,898.64 tonnes, though September shipments showed improvement, rising 2.20% YoY and 22.93% MoM. The market is witnessing short covering with open interest down 0.37% to 3,255. Immediate support lies at 21560, followed by 21370, while resistance is placed at 21890, above which 22030 may be tested.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21370-22030.
* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.
* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21083.7 Rupees dropped by -0.67 percent.
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