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Gold
Gold prices saw a modest rise of 0.13%, settling at 86,024, as escalating trade tensions fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats on various sectors, coupled with his existing levies on Chinese imports and metals, have heightened concerns over inflation. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting reaffirmed a cautious stance on interest rate cuts amid these inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, China’s domestic gold market showed mixed signals, with the central bank increasing holdings for the third consecutive month to 2,285 tons, despite weaker imports and negative ETF flows. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing strong central bank purchases as a key driver. In India, record-high prices dampened retail demand, prompting dealers to offer discounts of up to $26 per ounce. Similarly, China’s demand weakened post-Lunar New Year, with gold trading at par to an $18 discount. Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong also experienced varying discounts and premiums, reflecting regional demand shifts. The World Gold Council expects India's gold consumption to moderate in 2025, ranging between 700 and 800 metric tons, down from 2024’s nine-year high of 802.8 tons, as higher prices weigh on jewelry purchases. From a technical perspective, gold remains in a fresh buying phase, with open interest rising by 1.07% to 15,994. Immediate support is at 85,580, with further downside potential at 85,135. On the upside, resistance lies at 86,515, and a break above this level could push prices toward 87,005.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 85135-87005.
* Gold gains on concerns that U.S. President Trump's tariff threats will unleash a global trade war.
* Majority of Fed policymakers acknowledged high uncertainty warranting cautious monetary policy adjustments.
* China’s gold market improves in January, sentiment suggests consumption is improving – World Gold Council


Silver
Silver prices climbed 0.73%, settling at 97,113, as traders reacted to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for an extended period. The market also weighed President Donald Trump’s latest tariff plans, which now include lumber and forest products alongside previously announced duties on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting signaled a cautious Fed stance, emphasizing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty tied to trade policies. Fed Governor Christopher Waller dismissed fears that tariffs would lead to persistent inflation, advocating for a data-driven approach to policy decisions. The Silver Institute projected a fifth consecutive year of market deficits in 2025, with industrial demand and retail investment remaining strong. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported an 8.6% decline in silver held in London vaults, marking the sharpest monthly drop since record-keeping began in 2016. Total silver demand is expected to hold at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial fabrication reaching a record 700 million ounces, driven by the green economy. Investment demand is forecasted to rise 3%, counteracting a projected 6% drop in jewelry demand, particularly in India, due to high local prices. Technically, the silver market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 4.09% to 18,059 while prices rose by 707 rupees. Immediate support is at 96,535, with further downside at 95,960. On the upside, resistance stands at 97,725, with a potential move toward 98,340 if bullish momentum continues.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 95960-98340.
* Silver gains as traders assessed the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady
* Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, signaling no urgency to cut interest rates
* Labor market data showed continued strength, with initial jobless claims rising by 5K to 219K last week.


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices edged up by 0.45%, settling at 6316, as supply concerns overshadowed the rise in U.S. stockpiles. The market reacted to OPEC+ potentially delaying a planned output increase and disruptions from a Ukraine drone attack, which cut oil flows through Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline by 40%, reducing supply by 380,000 barrels per day. On the other hand, Iraq’s Kurdistan oil exports may soon resume, adding 300,000 barrels per day, though Turkey has yet to confirm. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 4.633 million barrels last week, exceeding market expectations of a 3 million-barrel rise. Additionally, Cushing, Oklahoma's storage hub saw a 1.472 million-barrel increase, marking the highest build since May 2024. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks declined by 0.151 million barrels, missing the expected 0.7 million increase, while distillate stockpiles dropped by 2.051 million barrels, surpassing the anticipated 1.2 million draw. U.S. oil imports from Mexico hit a record low of 149,000 barrels per day, marking a steep 372,000 bpd drop, further highlighting supply tightness. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. crude production to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd, while consumption is forecasted to hold steady at 20.5 million bpd.  Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 2.32% to 3,456 as prices rose by 28 rupees. Crude oil has support at 6255, with further downside potential at 6194. Resistance is seen at 6361, with a break above potentially leading to 6406.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6194-6406.
* Crude oil rose as supply concerns outweighed another rise in US stockpiles.
* Prices climbed gains amid uncertainty over production, with OPEC+ considering delaying an output increase.
* Ukraine drone attack reducing oil flows through Kazakhstan’s key Caspian Pipeline by up to 40%, cutting market supply by an estimated 380,000 bpd.


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices declined sharply by 4.34%, settling at 352.8, driven by forecasts of milder weather and reduced heating demand next week. Despite the extreme cold gripping much of the country this week, which boosted heating demand and temporarily curtailed production due to freeze-offs, the market reacted to projections of warming temperatures. The U.S. Lower 48 states' gas output rose to 104.8 bcfd in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, though daily production fell to a four-week low of 100.0 bcfd due to ongoing freeze-offs. Meteorologists expect colder-than-normal temperatures through February 22, but conditions should return to near-normal levels between February 23 and March 7. Consequently, LSEG forecasts total gas demand, including exports, to drop from 147.3 bcfd this week to 127.6 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, LNG exports hit record highs, with flows to U.S. LNG export plants averaging 15.5 bcfd in February, surpassing the previous monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Storage withdrawals reached 196 bcf for the week ending February 14, exceeding market expectations of 188 bcf. Inventories now stand at 2,101 bcf, 15.5% lower than last year and 5.3% below the five-year average. However, the market is currently in a long liquidation phase, with open interest dropping by 26.27% to 9,970 as prices fell by 16 rupees. Key support is at 338.6, with further downside at 324.4, while resistance is at 377.8, with a breakout potentially leading to 402.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 324.4-402.8.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand next week.
* Extreme cold blanketing much of the country boosted heating demand and cut output by freezing oil and gas wells.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.8 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January.


Copper
Copper prices edged up by 0.2% to settle at 869.75, as trade war concerns eased following U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks about a possible new trade deal with China. Meanwhile, China’s central bank reinforced its commitment to supporting private enterprises, ensuring access to stock, bond, and loan financing, which boosted market sentiment. Additionally, restrictions on copper smelting in China, due to excess capacity, have impacted production. Although rising copper imports and falling inventories suggest demand remains strong, smelting firms continue to struggle with profitability. On the global front, the refined copper market posted a significant deficit of 131,000 metric tons in November, up from a 30,000-ton deficit in October, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, for the first 11 months of the year, the market saw a 168,000-ton surplus compared to a deficit of 89,000 tons in the same period last year. China’s refined copper production rose 4.3% in December year-on-year to 1.24 million metric tons, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products surged by 17.8% to 559,000 metric tons. In Peru, copper output slightly declined by 0.7% in 2024, marking its first drop after four years of recovery. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 16.99% to 3,107 while prices rose by 1.7 rupees. Copper has support at 867.3, with a potential test at 864.8 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 872.8, and a move above could push prices toward 875.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 864.8-875.8.
* Copper rose as worries about the probability of a global trade war were put on a pause.
* China's central bank pledges financial support for private economy
* In China, authorities have ordered restrictions on copper smelting due to excess capacity in the industry.


Zinc
Zinc prices rose by 1.08% to settle at 271.55, supported by a continued decline in LME-registered warehouse inventories, which have reached their lowest levels since February 2024. Despite this, concerns over global trade resurfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, potentially impacting metal demand. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories surged by 70.5% from the previous Friday, reflecting shifting supply dynamics. China's economic outlook remains a key focus, with the People's Bank of China (PBoC) signaling potential policy adjustments to support growth amid external challenges and weak domestic demand. The central bank has reinforced expectations of further stimulus, including interest rate cuts and bank reserve requirement adjustments, after new bank loans in China reached a record high in January. However, manufacturing activity in China unexpectedly declined in January, highlighting persistent economic uncertainty. On the supply side, global mined zinc production fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, driven by a 7% decline in Chinese refined zinc output and lower processing rates. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, responsible for 10% of global zinc production, is also set to slow production in 2025 due to ore depletion. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with open interest dropping by 17.02% to 1,707 while prices gained 2.9 rupees. Zinc has support at 270, with a potential test at 268.3 levels, while resistance is seen at 272.8, and a move above could push prices to 273.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 268.3-273.9.
* Zinc gains amid continuing decline of inventories in the LME-registered warehouses.
* LME zinc total stocks were at the lowest since February 2024.
* PBOC said in its fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report that it would adjust policy at the appropriate time to support the economy.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices rose by 0.8% to settle at 264.5, supported by supply restrictions and expectations of improving demand. China produced a record 44 million tons of aluminium in 2024 but is expected to curb output this year due to production caps aimed at limiting excess supply and reducing carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector showed unexpected growth in January, marking its first expansion in over two years, which may boost demand for industrial metals. On the geopolitical front, the European Union reaffirmed its plans to impose further sanctions on Russian aluminium, while the U.S. has threatened a 25% tariff on imports of the metal. This has contributed to a sharp rise in the U.S. aluminium premium, which has increased by 25% since early February and by 60% since Trump’s re-election in November 2024. At the same time, LME aluminium stocks declined to 547,950 tons, their lowest since May, with on-warrant stocks falling to 227,775 tons due to fresh cancellations. However, upside movement was capped by a post-holiday inventory buildup in China and the gradual resumption of domestic aluminium production. Global primary aluminium output rose by 2.7% year-on-year in January to 6.252 million tonnes, while China’s aluminium production grew by 4.2% in December, with full-year output reaching 44.01 million metric tons. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 9.05% to 1,669 while prices increased by 2.1 rupees. Aluminium has support at 262.1, with a potential test at 259.6 levels, while resistance is seen at 266.9, and a move above could push prices to 269.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.6-269.2.
* Aluminium rose amid stringent restrictions to supply and the outlook of improving demand.
* China produced 44 million tons of aluminum in 2024, the most on record, meaning that output will be forced to slow considerably this year.
* The US manufacturing sector unexpectedly rebounded in January and recorded its first expansion in over two years.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.09% to 54,420 as the Cotton Association of India (CAI) projected a decline in overall cotton output for the 2024-25 season to 301.75 lakh bales, down from 327.45 lakh bales in the previous season. The expected decline is due to lower yields in Gujarat and northern states, though cotton quality remains high. As of January 2025, total cotton supply is estimated at 234.26 lakh bales, comprising 188.07 lakh bales of fresh pressings, 16 lakh bales of imports, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Domestic consumption until January 2025 is estimated at 114 lakh bales, with exports reaching 8 lakh bales. Stocks at the end of January are projected at 112.26 lakh bales, including 27 lakh bales with textile mills and 85.26 lakh bales held by CCI, traders, and ginners. CAI maintains its full-season domestic consumption estimate at 315 lakh bales, while exports are projected to drop to 17 lakh bales compared to 28.36 lakh bales in 2023-24. Meanwhile, Brazil's cotton production for 2024-25 is forecasted to rise by 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, with a 4.8% expansion in planting area, signaling strong global supply. China’s cotton production increased by one million bales, contributing to higher global stocks. In Rajkot, a key spot market, prices dropped by 0.26% to 25,655.75 rupees. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest remaining unchanged at 253. Support is at 54,310, with a potential test at 54,190, while resistance is seen at 54,540, with a move above possibly pushing prices to 54,650.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 54190-54650.
* Cotton gains as CAI said the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat.
* CCI is likely to buy more than 100 lakh bales of cotton at MSP during the current cotton year.
*  Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton production is projected to be 1.6 per cent higher.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25655.75 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices rose by 1.85% to 13,208 as concerns over lower yields supported the market. Reports indicate a 10-15% decline in new crop yields, particularly in the Nanded region, where small rhizomes and crop rot have affected production. However, a clear picture of the actual yield loss will emerge once harvesting picks up in major growing areas. Despite an increase in turmeric cultivation to 3.30 lakh hectares this season (10% higher than last year’s 3 lakh hectares), untimely rains are expected to limit the production gains. Last year’s turmeric output stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, and this year’s production is expected to remain stable or fluctuate within a narrow range of 3-5% due to weather-related concerns. Turmeric exports during April-November 2024 jumped 9.80% to 121,601.21 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. However, November exports dropped 20.18% from October levels but remained 48.22% higher than November 2023. Meanwhile, imports surged by 101.80% during April-November 2024 to 18,937.95 tonnes, with November imports slightly lower than a year ago. These trade patterns indicate robust demand for turmeric in international markets, even as domestic production faces some uncertainty. In Nizamabad, a key spot market, turmeric prices gained 1.02% to close at 13,156.3 rupees. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 0.76% to settle at 11,950 contracts. Support is seen at 12,892, with a potential test at 12,574, while resistance is at 13,394, and a breakout above this level could push prices to 13,578.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12574-13578.
* Turmeric gains as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* However upside seen limited as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* Turmeric area was recorded as 3.30 lakh hectares, which is 10 percent more than the area of about 3 lakh hectares.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13156.3 Rupees gained by 1.02 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices edged up by 0.28% to 21,200 amid supply concerns due to a delayed new crop arrival in Gujarat, which has been pushed back by about a month due to unfavorable weather. Sowing in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan also faced similar delays, impacting overall availability. Despite this, around 20 lakh bags of cumin remain with farmers, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to match last year’s levels due to improved sowing conditions. The demand scenario remains mixed, with limited domestic buying but strong export prospects supporting prices. India’s cumin production increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from 11.87 lakh hectares during 2023-24, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares in the previous year, as per the Spices Board. Indian cumin remains the cheapest globally, attracting significant international demand, particularly from China, where prices are $200-$250 per tonne higher. Jeera exports during April-November 2024 surged by 74.04% to 147,006.20 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. However, November exports declined by 28.92% from October but remained 42.67% higher year-on-year. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices dropped by 0.93% to 21,171.6 rupees. Technically, jeera is under short covering, with open interest declining by 0.11% to 2,727 contracts. Support is seen at 20,870, with a potential test at 20,540, while resistance is at 21,410, and a breakout above this level could push prices to 21,620.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20540-21620.
* Jeera gained as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has also been delayed by about a month.
* Due to unfavourable weather, this time the start of sowing of cumin in Gujarat and Rajasthan was delayed by about a month.
* However, demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21171.6 Rupees dropped by -0.93 percent.

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