Gold is expected to move higher towards $3150 level on expectation of weakness in dollar and US treasury yields - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Gold is expected to move higher towards $3150 level on expectation of weakness in dollar and US treasury yields. Further, escalating global trade tension and US President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariff policies would increase the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal. Moreover, weakness in the global equities and forecast of softer US economic numbers would bring more inflows in the bullions.
* On the data front fresh addition of OI in OTM put strikes indicates gold to hold strong support near $3100 and on the upside immediate resistance exists near $3150 level. A move above $3150 would rise further towards $3170. MCX Gold June is expected to rise towards Rs.91,800 level as long it holds the support near Rs.90,200 level
* MCX Silver May is expected to rise further towards Rs.102,000 level as long as it trades above Rs.99,000 level. Above, Rs.102,000, it would open the doors towards Rs.104,500.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias on risk-off sentiments. Recent tariffs from US and the upcoming reciprocal tariffs would hurt global risk sentiments and hurt the demand outlook of base metals. Meanwhile, depleting inventory levels in LME and increasing bets of tariff on copper by US in coming weeks would limit its downside. Moreover, better than expected manufacturing activity in China would provide some support to the metal.
* MCX Copper April is expected to slip towards Rs.887 level as long as it stays below Rs.898 level. A break below Rs.887 level prices may dip further towards Rs.881.
* MCX Aluminum April is expected to slip further towards Rs.243 level as long as it stays below Rs.250 level. MCX Zinc April is likely to move south towards Rs.265 level as long as it stays below Rs.272 level
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade with positive bias and rally towards $73 level on sign of tighter supplies. The US sanctions on Iranian oil and Trump’s threat for more sanctions would hurt the global supplies. Additionally, delay in the cease-fire deal between Russia and Ukraine would bring fresh sanction on Russian oil. Moreover, fall in US oil production in January to 13.1 mb/d, the lowest since February 2024 would also support prices to trade higher. Rising prompt spread in NYMEX crude as well as Brent futures has signaled tightness in the market.
* MCX Crude oil April is likely to hold support near Rs.6000 level and rise towards Rs.6240 level. Unwinding of ATM and OTM call strikes indicates an up move.
* MCX Natural gas April is expected to hold support near Rs.345 level and move higher towards Rs.365 level. Better than expected export numbers and cooler weather forecast would provide support to prices.
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