Jeera trading range for the day is 20400-21520 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices settled 0.84% higher at Rs 153,099, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July, while downward revisions to the previous two months further weakened the labour-market outlook. Markets now price a 44% probability of a September rate hike, down from 57% before the jobs report, while investors await U.S. CPI and PPI data for further monetary-policy signals. Physical demand remained mixed, with Perth Mint gold sales rising 3.8% month-on-month to 30,871 ounces in July and gaining 41% year-on-year. COMEX speculative net-long positions increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398 contracts in the week ended August 4, indicating strong bullish positioning amid inflation uncertainty, geopolitical risks and sustained central-bank buying. However, Indian gold discounts widened to $47 an ounce as elevated prices discouraged retail purchases, while Indian net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter. Global gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes in Q2 2026, supported by a fivefold rise in central-bank purchases to 289 tonnes, despite 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.66% to 10,367 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,279. Gold is finding support at rs 151,975, with a break below potentially exposing Rs 150,850. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 153,710, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 154,320.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 150850-154320.
* Gold edges higher as Fed hike bets fade, US inflation data in focus
* Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands
* Markets dial back rate hike bets after Friday's jobs data
Silver
Silver prices settled 2.33% higher at Rs 236,867, supported by an unexpected contraction in the U.S. labor market that reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, following a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June and sharply missing expectations for an 80,000 gain. The softer employment data improved investor sentiment toward precious metals, while geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran-U.S. discussions also supported safe-haven demand. COMEX speculative net-long positions in silver increased by 2,679 contracts to 11,067 contracts in the week ended August 4, indicating a notable improvement in bullish positioning despite silver’s relatively lower market liquidity. Physical demand signals were mixed, with Perth Mint silver sales jumping 65.5% month-on-month to 486,043 ounces in July and rising 7.5% year-on-year. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June, valued at $53.1 billion. However, Indian imports remained weak after tighter government restrictions, with May imports plunging 87% year-on-year in value to $75.57 million and 94% in volume to 33 tonnes, the lowest since February 2023. India also raised gold and silver import duties to 15% from 6%. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.3% to 11,144 contracts while prices gained Rs 5,401. Silver is finding support at Rs 233,280, and a break below this level could expose Rs 229,695. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 238,830; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 240,795.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 229695-240795.
* Silver gains supported by an unexpected contraction in the US labor market
* Fed’s Barkin said that hiring data for July represents a continuation of recent trends.
* Speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures rose by 2,679 contracts, reaching a total of 11,067 contracts.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices settled 5.11% higher at Rs 7,803, supported by optimism that diplomatic efforts could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although gains remained capped by Iran’s demands for compensation, lifting of restrictions on Iranian shipping and other conditions before reopening the key waterway. Geopolitical risks remained elevated after Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, while an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company tanker was also attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The CFTC reported that speculative net-long positions in WTI crude declined by 4,683 contracts to 101,824 contracts for the week ended August 4, indicating some reduction in bullish positioning. China’s July crude oil imports fell 24.3% year-on-year to 35.73 million tonnes, while January-July imports declined 13.2% to 283.33 million tonnes, highlighting weaker demand. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.479 million barrels to 407 million barrels, while Cushing stocks rose 2.356 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories declined 1.643 million barrels and distillate stocks fell 3.473 million barrels, providing some underlying support. OPEC+ approved a production quota increase of around 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary supply cut. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.53% to 8,946 contracts while prices gained Rs 379. Crude oil is finding support at rs 7,536, and a break below this level could expose Rs 7,270. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 7,944; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 8,086.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7270-8086.
* Crude oil gains on optimism over talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
* Iran says it is close to agreeing Hormuz shipping lanes with Oman
* U.S. would have to meet certain conditions before strait is reopened, Iran says
Natural gas
Natural gas prices settled 4.23% higher at Rs 266.4, supported by stronger demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas export facilities. Daily flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants were on track to reach a one-month high of 17.9 bcfd, while average feedgas demand stood at 17.2 bcfd in July, close to June’s record 17.4 bcfd. U.S. Lower 48 production averaged a record 111.2 bcfd in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, keeping supply abundant. Storage inventories increased by 33 bcf in the week ended July 31, above expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average increase of 23 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.117 trillion cubic feet, 0.4% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average. However, above-normal temperatures through August 25 are expected to support power-sector gas demand and air-conditioning consumption. Speculative sentiment remained bearish, with CFTC data showing natural gas net-short positions increasing by 28,093 contracts to 89,090 contracts, reflecting concerns over high production and comfortable inventories. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to rise to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd and 18.6 bcfd respectively. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 25.53% to 45,347 contracts while prices gained ?10.8. Natural gas is finding support at Rs 260, and a break below this level could expose Rs 253.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 270.5; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 274.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 253.5-274.5.
* Natural gas rose supported by stronger demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities.
* Daily flows to the nine major US LNG export plants were on track to reach a one-month high of 17.9 bcfd.
* Average feedgas demand stood at 17.2 bcfd in July, just below June’s monthly record of 17.4 bcfd.
Copper
Copper prices settled 0.84% higher at Rs 1,376.95, supported by tightening inventories outside the United States and concerns over supply availability. LME available copper stocks nearly halved to 101,425 tonnes at the end of July from 201,700 tonnes in June, while Chinese-origin stocks fell 75,600 tonnes to 43,050 tonnes. SHFE inventories, however, increased 1.1% to 70,116 tonnes, their first weekly rise since June 8. The Yangshan copper premium declined to $101 per tonne, while China’s domestic spot premium fell to 70 yuan per tonne, signalling softer near-term import demand. CFTC data showed speculative net-long COMEX copper positions rising by 11,307 contracts to 77,796 contracts, indicating stronger bullish positioning. Supply concerns persisted after Codelco paused an expansion project at El Teniente due to increased seismic risk, while Glencore and First Quantum reported 15% and 5% year-on-year increases in first-half copper production respectively. China’s July unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, while refined copper output reached a record 1.334 million tonnes, up 2.5%. The ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, reversing a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 1.6% to 10,243 contracts while prices gained Rs 11.45. Copper is finding support at Rs 1,368.3, and a break below this level could expose Rs 1,359.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 1,383.1; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 1,389.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1359.6-1389.2.
* Copper prices gained amid supply concerns and tight inventories outside the U.S.
* The Yangshan copper premium, fell to $101 a ton on Friday, its lowest since July 20.
* The share of available Chinese-origin copper stocks in LME dropped to 42% in July from 59% a month earlier
Zinc
Zinc prices settled 1.20% higher at Rs 393.75, supported by easing US-Iran tensions and tightening near-term supply conditions. LME available zinc stocks declined to 73,825 tonnes, the lowest since December, while the cash LME contract traded around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward, maintaining steep backwardation and signalling prompt-market tightness. Heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China also raised concerns over potential disruptions to mining, smelting and transportation. A southwestern Chinese mine is expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc, while a central Chinese smelter maintenance shutdown could affect output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Glencore reported first-half zinc production down 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden’s concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. However, China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, indicating strong smelter activity. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes versus 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased marginally by 0.1%. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 1.02% to 2,724 contracts while prices gained Rs 4.65. Zinc is finding support at Rs 390, and a break below this level could expose ?386.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 395.8; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 397.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 386.2-397.8.
* Zinc gains amid easing US Iran tensions and LME available zinc stocks were at the lowest since December
* Support also seen as heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China raised concerns over potential disruptions to mining, smelting operations.
* Zinc smelter in Central China plans to carry out routine maintenance in August, which is expected to last around half a month, affecting output by 1,000-1,500 mt.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices settled 1.51% higher at Rs 355.85, supported by tightening exchange inventories and concerns over supply disruptions. LME aluminium inventories fell to 254,900 tonnes, the lowest level this century, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined by 13,000 tonnes last week. Supply concerns strengthened after aluminium output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. Heavy rainfall and flooding in China’s Sichuan province also raised concerns over disruptions to smelting operations, hydropower availability and transportation. Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. However, upside remained capped by recovering Middle Eastern production, including the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah alumina refinery, and elevated Chinese exports. China’s July aluminium and semi-finished product exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, while January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf production falling sharply to 332,000 tonnes from 507,000 tonnes. Japanese port inventories also declined 7.8% to 220,300 tonnes. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 7.21% to 4,945 contracts while prices gained Rs 5.3. Aluminium is finding support at Rs 352.4, and a break below this level could expose Rs 348.9. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 357.7; a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs 359.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 348.9-359.5.
* Aluminium rose as exchange inventories of the lightweight metal continue to be depleted.
* Overall LME aluminium inventories are the lowest this century at 254,900 tons, with available or on-warrant stocks the lowest since April 2025.
* In China, there was a 13,000-ton draw on Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium stocks last week.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices settled marginally lower by 0.07% at Rs 20,830 amid profit booking as the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over crop stress. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have ensured better water availability, while rainfall supported re-sowing in North Karnataka and improved crop conditions. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, potentially improving production prospects. However, structural supply remains relatively tight, with carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags versus over 20 lakh bags last season. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations are supporting premiums for Integrated Pest Management compliant turmeric while discounting non-compliant commercial lots. India’s turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026, while April-May exports remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Demand from China, Oman, Yemen and Italy remained strong, with April-May exports to China surging 4,631% year-on-year to 2,021 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot prices declined 1.62% to Rs 20,398.9, reflecting selling pressure during the peak harvest period. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.62% to 17,190 contracts while prices declined Rs 14. Turmeric is finding support at Rs 20,404, and a break below this level could expose Rs 19,978. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 21,202; a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs 21,574.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19978-21574.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as revival of monsoon activity in mid-July eased dry-weather fears.
* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.
* NCDEX raised additional/special margins by 7.50% on turmeric futures contracts to curb excessive volatility.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20398.9 Rupees dropped by -1.62 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices settled 0.83% lower at Rs 20,910 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather accelerated harvesting and deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced urgency among traders, and large industrial spice grinders remained cautious, preferring to wait for lower prices before bulk purchases. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat producing areas have also affected crop quality and harvestable supplies. Production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China’s cumin production estimate has also declined to 70,000-80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports fell 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May 2026, while April-May exports declined 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico and Kenya recorded strong growth, highlighting improving demand from emerging destinations. Unjha spot prices declined 0.48% to Rs 20,670.2. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 12.62% to 5,328 contracts while prices declined Rs 175. Jeera is finding support at Rs 20,650, and a break below this level could expose Rs 20,400. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 21,210; a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs 21,520.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20400-21520.
* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.
* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.
* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20670.2 Rupees dropped by -0.48 percent.
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views
